Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. TRY 5.13, price TRY 10.40, upside -50.7%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.7495 TRY – 13.25 TRY · fair‑value band 2.95 TRY – 6.42 TRY · the 10.40 TRY price screens above the 5.13 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. engages in purchases, compresses, and delivers natural gas for compressed natural gas (CNG) in the transported natural gas sector, and purchases, transports, and delivers gas in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector in Turkey.
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Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. engages in purchases, compresses, and delivers natural gas for compressed natural gas (CNG) in the transported natural gas sector, and purchases, transports, and delivers gas in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector in Turkey. The company offers CNG through 13 industrial CNG filling plants consisting of approximately 60,000 CNG cylinders, a fleet of 35 towing vehicles, and 71 industrial CNG compressors, and LNG through 6 LNG road tankers, 31 LNG storage tanks, and 94 evaporators. It also supplies CNG through dispensers to heavy-duty vehicles, such as logistics trucks, garbage trucks, and city buses from its auto CNG stations. The company serves industrial establishments, factories, asphalt plants, hotels, greenhouses, social facilities, the chemical industry, construction material producers, the metal industry, the food industry, mining operations, and other industrial facilities. In addition, the company operates a solar power plant with an installed capacity of 2.4 MWp located in the Karatay District of Konya Province, Turkey. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey. Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Global Yatirim Holding A.S.
Stock analysis
Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ) currently trades at 10.40 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.13 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 102.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of 45.68 TRY per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the 10.40 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4.90 TRY, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.95 TRY (bear) to 6.42 TRY (bull), the price of 10.40 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. reported revenue of 8.0B TRY in FY2025 versus 696M TRY in FY2021, a compound +83.8%/yr. Reported net income was 901M TRY in FY2025, compounding +142.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 7.2B TRY (≈ $147M) · P/E ratio 7.0 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) 1.48 TRY · Net margin 11.3% · Return on equity 20.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.1% · Operating margin 10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −51%, NTGAZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.95 TRYFair Value 5.13 TRYBull 6.42 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.09 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+63.9%
’18
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +24.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 15%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 88% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.9% a year for the price.
Compare Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 87 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−50.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)7.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.42× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.86× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.3× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.8× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)60· sector 61
PAST (return on equity)80· sector 46
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 55
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 89
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTGAZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.13 TRY versus a price of 10.40 TRY, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NTGAZ?
Our model-based fair value for Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 5.13 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 10.40 TRY.
What is the quality score of NTGAZ?
Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5.13 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.95 TRY, optimistic scenario 6.42 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5.13 TRY, about −51% upside versus a price of 10.40 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.95 TRY, optimistic scenario 6.42 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.4B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. would have to grow free cash flow by +17.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +77.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NTGAZ use?
Our models discount Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. that is +17.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. grew +77.3 % a year. The price currently implies +17.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (+17.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.48 %: that much free cash flow Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. it is 5.13 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 10.40 TRY. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NTGAZ trades above its calculated fair value: price 10.40 TRY, fair value 5.13 TRY, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTGAZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (10.40 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5.13 TRY). For Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. the two are 5.27 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. worth?
The market values Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. at about 7.2B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 10.40 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 5.13 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTGAZ?
Our models span a range for Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S.: cautious scenario 2.95 TRY, base 5.13 TRY, optimistic 6.42 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 10.40 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTGAZ?
Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 5.13 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.0%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTGAZ from its 52-week high?
Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. trades at 10.40 TRY, about 22% below its 52-week high of 13.25 TRY and 22% above the low of 8.50 TRY (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5.13 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 10.40 TRY, calculated fair value 5.13 TRY (−51%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTGAZ calculated?
We run Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5.13 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 10.40 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 5.13 TRY, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (6.42 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (2.95 TRY to 6.42 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S.
How large is the market capitalisation of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
The market capitalisation of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 7.2B TRY (≈ $147M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
Earnings per share at Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. are 1.48 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
The net margin of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 11.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 20.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 19.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
The operating margin of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
Revenue at Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is growing +12.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
Earnings per share at Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. are growing +20.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ) carry?
The net debt of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 87.3M TRY (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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