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Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · TR · Market cap 7.1B TRY

NS Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. NTGAZ · IS
Price10.34 TRY
Fair Value14.66 TRY
Upside+41.8%
Quality55/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 12.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (12/14)
Moderate moat 63/100
Evidence: High Range 10.96 TRY – 20.18 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price −7.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 42% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (10.96 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (10.96 TRY to 20.18 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

13.25 TRY 0.7495 TRY Fair Value 14.66 TRY May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.7495 TRY – 13.25 TRY · fair‑value band 10.96 TRY – 20.18 TRY · the 10.34 TRY price screens below the 14.66 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ) currently trades at 10.34 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.66 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 41.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. generated revenue of 8.4B TRY at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue grew 12.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.0%. Net debt stands at 87.3M TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 10.96 TRY (bear case) to 20.18 TRY (bull case); at 10.34 TRY, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at 42%, NTGAZ screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 10.33 TRY 19.42 TRY 34.07 TRY 80
Residual Income 8.32 TRY 11.06 TRY 38.39 TRY 76
Rev-Margin DCF 12.13 TRY 22.09 TRY 42.86 TRY 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 10.98 TRY 16.76 TRY 34.79 TRY 38
Owner Earnings 6.74 TRY 14.62 TRY 30.56 TRY 31
5Y Revenue Exit 10.98 TRY 19.35 TRY 36.90 TRY 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 11.51 TRY 20.42 TRY 37.90 TRY 41
5Y P/E Exit 13.45 TRY 30.44 TRY 53.73 TRY 38
10Y Revenue Exit 10.72 TRY 24.36 TRY 33.40 TRY 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 11.52 TRY 25.48 TRY 49.85 TRY 37
10Y P/E Exit 12.90 TRY 29.54 TRY 57.16 TRY 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 8.88 TRY 61.90 TRY 86.86 TRY 54
Lynch FV 31.98 TRY 45.68 TRY 59.39 TRY 50
PEG = 1.0 31.98 TRY 45.68 TRY 59.39 TRY 46
EPV 14.69 TRY 16.97 TRY 18.94 TRY 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 13.70 TRY 18.27 TRY 22.84 TRY 63
P/S Multiple 10.37 TRY 13.83 TRY 17.28 TRY 58
P/B Multiple 9.86 TRY 13.15 TRY 16.44 TRY 55
EV/EBIT 13.49 TRY 17.90 TRY 22.31 TRY 53
EV/EBITDA 11.35 TRY 15.05 TRY 18.74 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 9.94 TRY 14.09 TRY 18.24 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3.65 TRY 4.90 TRY 7.31 TRY 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 10.33 TRY 19.42 TRY 34.07 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 12.13 TRY 22.09 TRY 42.86 TRY 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 8.32 TRY 11.06 TRY 38.39 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 19.84 TRY 31.79 TRY 38.71 TRY 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 37.48 TRY 53.54 TRY 69.60 TRY 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (53.54 TRY) versus Asset-Based (4.90 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 8.4B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.0%
Net margin 12.2%
Return on equity 20.0%
Free cash flow 465M TRY FY2025
P/E ratio 7.0
More key figures
Operating margin 10.6%
EPS (TTM) 1.48 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) +20.3%
Net debt 87.3M TRY FY2020

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 68
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 12
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. engages in purchases, compresses, and delivers natural gas for compressed natural gas (CNG) in the transported natural gas sector, and purchases, transports, and delivers gas in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector in Turkey.

Full company description

Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. engages in purchases, compresses, and delivers natural gas for compressed natural gas (CNG) in the transported natural gas sector, and purchases, transports, and delivers gas in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector in Turkey. The company offers CNG through 13 industrial CNG filling plants consisting of approximately 60,000 CNG cylinders, a fleet of 35 towing vehicles, and 71 industrial CNG compressors, and LNG through 6 LNG road tankers, 31 LNG storage tanks, and 94 evaporators. It also supplies CNG through dispensers to heavy-duty vehicles, such as logistics trucks, garbage trucks, and city buses from its auto CNG stations. The company serves industrial establishments, factories, asphalt plants, hotels, greenhouses, social facilities, the chemical industry, construction material producers, the metal industry, the food industry, mining operations, and other industrial facilities. In addition, the company operates a solar power plant with an installed capacity of 2.4 MWp located in the Karatay District of Konya Province, Turkey. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey. Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Global Yatirim Holding A.S.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. reported revenue of 8.0B TRY in FY2025 versus 696M TRY in FY2021, a compound +83.8%/yr. Reported net income was 901M TRY in FY2025, compounding +142.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
8.0B TRY
Latest YoY
+6.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+28.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+77.3%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+63.9%
Revenue +83.8%/yr
FY21 696M TRY
FY22 3.8B TRY
FY23 5.8B TRY
FY24 7.5B TRY
FY25 8.0B TRY
Net income +142.2%/yr
FY21 26.2M TRY
FY22 767M TRY
FY23 139M TRY
FY24 479M TRY
FY25 901M TRY

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTGAZ

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Midstream · 89 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +42% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Return on assets 14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Below median
Revenue growth 12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.41× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.85× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 3.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 89 · sector 0
FUTURE 60 · sector 44
PAST 80 · sector 41
HEALTH 99 · sector 56
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 92

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Enbridge Inc ENB $56.46 $47.20 -16%
The Williams Companies, Inc WMB $73.38 $12.03 -84%
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD $37.99 $24.74 -35%
TC Energy Corporation TRP C$97.79 C$42.00 -57%
Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI $32.54 $11.12 -66%
Energy Transfer LP, ET $19.91 $17.69 -11%
MPLX LP owns and MPLX $58.70 $36.42 -38%
ONEOK, Inc OKE $93.52 $64.05 -32%
Targa Resources Corp TRGP $273.35 $79.61 -71%
Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG $255.83 $211.18 -17%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 14.66 TRY versus a price of 10.34 TRY, about +42% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NTGAZ?
Our model-based fair value for Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 14.66 TRY (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 10.34 TRY.
What is the quality score of NTGAZ?
Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (NTGAZ)?
Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.4B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NTGAZ?
The net profit margin of Naturelgaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is about 12.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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