Neste Oyj (NTOIF) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $23.7B
Neste Oyj
NTOIF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $4.54 to $9.14 (+101.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +9.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 74% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.46 to $12.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.23 – $65.62 · fair‑value band $5.46 – $12.80 · the $35.00 price screens above the $9.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Neste Oyj (NTOIF) currently trades at $35.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.14, implying the stock looks roughly 73.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Neste Oyj generated revenue of $19.2B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at $3.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.46 (bear case) to $12.80 (bull case); at $35.00, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 168% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -74%, NTOIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($8.61) versus Dividend Discount ($2.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments.
Full company description
Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments. It produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and related solutions. The company also provides various oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, gasoline components, and special fuels, such as small-engine gasoline, solvents, and liquid gases for retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. In addition, the company markets and sells lower emission fuels, oil products, and associated digital solutions to consumers, transport service providers, aviation, shipping, industrial and agricultural, and municipalities and heating fuel customers and fuel distributors; and markets transport fuels and electric vehicle charging services. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Neste Oyj reported revenue of $19.0B in FY2025 versus $15.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $144M in FY2025, compounding −46.6%/yr from FY2021.
NTOIF screens 74% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Neste Oyj (HLSE:NESTE) Earnings Beat And 2026 Guidance Put Valuation Back In Focus
- Neste supports the Tara Ocean Foundation's first-ever 18-month drift expedition to the Central Arctic Ocean
- Neste OYJ (NTOIF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record EBITDA and Strategic Growth Plans
- Neste OYJ - Unsponsored ADR (NTOIY) Upgraded to Strong Buy: Here's Why
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $74.00 | $53.36 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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