Neste Oyj (NTOIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Neste Oyj is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $11.70 · Strongly overvalued (−70%)
!Quality 57/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +10.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.51% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers(6/14)
!Narrow moat40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.23 – $65.62 · fair‑value band $8.72 – $12.64 · the $39.10 price screens above the $11.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments.
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Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments. It produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and related solutions. The company also provides various oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, gasoline components, and special fuels, such as small-engine gasoline, solvents, and liquid gases for retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. In addition, the company markets and sells lower emission fuels, oil products, and associated digital solutions to consumers, transport service providers, aviation, shipping, industrial and agricultural, and municipalities and heating fuel customers and fuel distributors; and markets transport fuels and electric vehicle charging services. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Stock analysis
Neste Oyj (NTOIF) currently trades at $39.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.70, implying the stock looks roughly 234.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8.62 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $39.10 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $2.24, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.72 (bear) to $12.64 (bull), the price of $39.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Neste Oyj reported revenue of €19.0B in FY2025 versus €15.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was €144M in FY2025, compounding −46.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $30.0B · P/E ratio 36.2 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) $1.08 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 199% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at −70%, NTOIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.8100 to $13.50). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $8.72Fair Value $11.70Bull $12.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6341 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−39.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−39.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−40% vs −13%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 3%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)36.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.24× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.24× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF28.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 10
FUTURE (revenue growth)15· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Neste Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTOIF
Frequently asked questions
Is Neste Oyj (NTOIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.70 versus a price of $39.10, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NTOIF?
Our model-based fair value for Neste Oyj is $11.70 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.10.
What is the quality score of NTOIF?
Neste Oyj has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.70 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.72, optimistic scenario $12.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neste Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.70, about −70% upside versus a price of $39.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.72, optimistic scenario $12.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
Neste Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Neste Oyj pay a dividend?
Neste Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Neste Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +18.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.1 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NTOIF use?
Our models discount Neste Oyj at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Neste Oyj that is +18.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Neste Oyj (NTOIF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Neste Oyj grew +10.1 % a year. The price currently implies +18.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Neste Oyj (NTOIF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Neste Oyj (+18.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.75 %: that much free cash flow Neste Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neste Oyj it is $11.70 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $39.10. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neste Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, NTOIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.10, fair value $11.70, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTOIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.70). For Neste Oyj the two are $27.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neste Oyj worth?
The market values Neste Oyj at about $30.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $39.10; our models calculate a fair value of $11.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTOIF?
Our models span a range for Neste Oyj: cautious scenario $8.72, base $11.70, optimistic $12.64 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $39.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTOIF?
Neste Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.2 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neste Oyj (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTOIF from its 52-week high?
Neste Oyj trades at $39.10, about 11% below its 52-week high of $35.29 and 199% above the low of $13.07 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neste Oyj?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neste Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $39.10, calculated fair value $11.70 (−70%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTOIF calculated?
We run Neste Oyj through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Neste Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $39.10. Our model-based fair value is $11.70, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neste Oyj right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Neste Oyj (NTOIF) come from?
Earnings per share at Neste Oyj grew +4.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin −0.2 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Neste Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
The market capitalisation of Neste Oyj is $30.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neste Oyj is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
Earnings per share at Neste Oyj are $1.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
The dividend yield of Neste Oyj is 0.5% (payout 18.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
The net margin of Neste Oyj is 0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neste Oyj is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neste Oyj is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
The operating margin of Neste Oyj is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
Revenue at Neste Oyj is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Neste Oyj (NTOIF)?
Earnings per share at Neste Oyj are growing +367% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Neste Oyj (NTOIF) carry?
The net debt of Neste Oyj is $3.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 18, 2026