Novem Group S.A. (NVM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Novem Group S.A. €5.68, price €2.14, upside +165.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.14 – €16.67 · fair‑value band €5.52 – €7.19 · the €2.14 price screens below the €5.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Novem Group S.A. develops and supplies trim elements and decorative function elements for car interiors in the automotive industry. Its product portfolio includes instrument panels, centre consoles, door trims, and belt lines, and decorative functional elements in car interiors.
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Novem Group S.A. develops and supplies trim elements and decorative function elements for car interiors in the automotive industry. Its product portfolio includes instrument panels, centre consoles, door trims, and belt lines, and decorative functional elements in car interiors. The company operates in Czechia, Germany, Italy, Slovenia, Honduras, Mexico, the United States, and China. The company was founded in 1947 and is based in Contern, Luxembourg.
Stock analysis
Novem Group S.A. (NVM) currently trades at €2.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.68, implying the stock looks roughly 62.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €12.49 per share, and 20 of the 22 models we run sit above the €2.14 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.47, and 2 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €5.52 (bear) to €7.19 (bull), the price of €2.14 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Novem Group S.A. reported revenue of €511M in FY2026 versus €615M in FY2022, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was €11.3M in FY2026, compounding −28.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €108M · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) €0.2600 · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3% · Operating margin 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 165%, NVM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.52Fair Value €5.68Bull €7.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1268 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.7%/yr over ~5Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 692 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+161% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novem Group S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NVM
Frequently asked questions
Is Novem Group S.A. (NVM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €5.68 versus a price of €2.14, about +165% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NVM?
Our model-based fair value for Novem Group S.A. is €5.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.14.
What is the quality score of NVM?
Novem Group S.A. has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €5.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.52, optimistic scenario €7.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novem Group S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €5.68, about +165% upside versus a price of €2.14 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €5.52, optimistic scenario €7.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
Novem Group S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €511M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Novem Group S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -14.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NVM use?
Our models discount Novem Group S.A. at 13.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Novem Group S.A. that is -14.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Novem Group S.A. (NVM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Novem Group S.A. grew -3.3 % a year. The price currently implies -14.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Novem Group S.A. (NVM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Novem Group S.A. (-14.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 47.95 %: that much free cash flow Novem Group S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novem Group S.A. it is €5.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €2.14. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Novem Group S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NVM trades below its calculated fair value: price €2.14, fair value €5.68, a gap of about +165% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€5.68). For Novem Group S.A. the two are €3.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novem Group S.A. worth?
The market values Novem Group S.A. at about €108M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €2.14; our models calculate a fair value of €5.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVM?
Our models span a range for Novem Group S.A.: cautious scenario €5.52, base €5.68, optimistic €7.19 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €2.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NVM?
Novem Group S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €5.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novem Group S.A. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 11.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVM from its 52-week high?
Novem Group S.A. trades at €2.14, about 44% below its 52-week high of €3.80 and at the low of €2.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €5.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Novem Group S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novem Group S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €2.14, calculated fair value €5.68 (+165%), Quality Score 57/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVM calculated?
We run Novem Group S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €5.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Novem Group S.A. currently trades 165 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €2.14. Our model-based fair value is €5.68, about +165% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novem Group S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€5.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Novem Group S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
The market capitalisation of Novem Group S.A. is €108M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novem Group S.A. is 0.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
Earnings per share at Novem Group S.A. are €0.2600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
The net margin of Novem Group S.A. is 2.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novem Group S.A. is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novem Group S.A. is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
The operating margin of Novem Group S.A. is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
Revenue at Novem Group S.A. is growing +0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Novem Group S.A. (NVM)?
Earnings per share at Novem Group S.A. are growing −69.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Novem Group S.A. (NVM) carry?
The net debt of Novem Group S.A. is €112M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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