N.W.F Group (NWF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of N.W.F Group stock £2.35, price £1.63, upside +44.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.19 – £2.31 · fair‑value band £1.77 – £2.94 · the £1.63 price screens below the £2.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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NWF Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale and distribution of fuel oils in the United Kingdom. It operates through Fuels, Food, and Feeds segments. The Fuels segment sells and distributes domestic heating, industrial, and road fuels.
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This segment owns and operates through a network of 27 depots. The Food segment is involved in the warehousing and distribution of grocery and other products to supermarkets and other retail distribution centers. The Feeds segment manufactures and sells animal feeds and other agricultural products.
The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Nantwich, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
N.W.F Group (NWF) currently trades at £1.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.35, implying the stock looks roughly 31% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of £6.49 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the £1.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.6400, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.77 (bear) to £2.94 (bull), the price of £1.63 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
N.W.F Group reported revenue of £920M in FY2026 versus £879M in FY2022, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was £9.2M in FY2026, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £81.8M Micro · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) £0.1828 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 45%, NWF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£1.77Fair Value £2.35Bull£2.94
Price £1.63 · Upside +44.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0413 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF£5.39£7.65£10.6181
Growth DCF£5.39£7.34£9.7179
Owner Earnings£5.73£8.14£11.3077
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF£5.39£7.65£10.6181
Owner Earnings£5.73£8.14£11.3077
5Y Revenue Exit£3.91£5.57£7.6173
5Y EBITDA Exit£4.10£5.92£8.0076
5Y P/E Exit£3.35£4.51£5.6972
10Y Revenue Exit£4.42£5.97£7.9767
10Y EBITDA Exit£4.59£6.19£8.2369
10Y P/E Exit£4.17£5.33£6.6665
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd£1.26£4.14£5.5364
Lynch FV£0.9300£1.33£1.7261
PEG = 1.0£0.9300£1.33£1.7257
EPV£2.03£2.27£2.4674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM£0.6200£1.07£1.4368
DDM Multi-Stage£0.6200£0.9700£1.1567
Multiples
P/E Multiple£1.95£2.60£3.2563
P/S Multiple£2.37£3.15£3.9458
P/B Multiple£1.29£1.72£2.1555
EV/EBIT£1.11£1.89£2.6664
EV/EBITDA£2.17£3.30£4.4466
EV/Revenue£1.61£2.82£4.0352
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)£0.4800£0.6400£0.950054
Growth DCF
Growth DCF£5.39£7.34£9.7179
Rev-Margin DCF£3.91£5.63£7.6673
Economic Profit
Residual Income£1.54£1.64£1.8576
ROIC Compounder£2.06£2.42£2.8372
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E£1.73£2.48£3.2267
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.5% vs 4.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−23.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −24.8% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+50.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.1% · Below median
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.4% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "N.W.F Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NWF
Frequently asked questions
Is N.W.F Group (NWF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.35 versus a price of £1.63, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NWF?
Our model-based fair value for N.W.F Group is £2.35 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.63.
What is the quality score of NWF?
N.W.F Group has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for N.W.F Group (NWF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £2.35 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.77, optimistic scenario £2.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the N.W.F Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £2.35, about +45% upside versus a price of £1.63 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £1.77, optimistic scenario £2.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
N.W.F Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £920M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does N.W.F Group pay a dividend?
N.W.F Group currently shows a dividend yield of 5.35% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of N.W.F Group (NWF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
N.W.F Group pays a dividend of £0.087 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1996. The payout ratio is 48.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 5.91 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into N.W.F Group (NWF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, N.W.F Group would have to grow free cash flow by -23.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NWF use?
Our models discount N.W.F Group at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For N.W.F Group that is -23.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has N.W.F Group (NWF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at N.W.F Group grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -23.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of N.W.F Group (NWF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into N.W.F Group (-23.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 31.18 %: that much free cash flow N.W.F Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For N.W.F Group it is £2.35 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of £1.63. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is N.W.F Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, NWF trades below its calculated fair value: price £1.63, fair value £2.35, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NWF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£2.35). For N.W.F Group the two are £0.7298 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is N.W.F Group worth?
The market values N.W.F Group at about £81.8M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is £1.63; our models calculate a fair value of £2.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NWF?
Our models span a range for N.W.F Group: cautious scenario £1.77, base £2.35, optimistic £2.94 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price £1.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NWF?
N.W.F Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £2.35 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 12.1. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
Balance-sheet figures for N.W.F Group (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 10.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NWF from its 52-week high?
N.W.F Group trades at £1.63, about 2% below its 52-week high of £1.67 and 37% above the low of £1.19 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £2.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to N.W.F Group?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is N.W.F Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price £1.63, calculated fair value £2.35 (+45%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NWF calculated?
We run N.W.F Group through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £2.35 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. N.W.F Group currently trades 31% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was £1.63. Our model-based fair value is £2.35, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with N.W.F Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£1.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of N.W.F Group (NWF) come from?
Earnings per share at N.W.F Group grew +4.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of N.W.F Group
How large is the market capitalisation of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
The market capitalisation of N.W.F Group is £81.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of N.W.F Group is 0.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
Earnings per share at N.W.F Group are £0.1828 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
The dividend yield of N.W.F Group is 5.4% (payout 47.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
The net margin of N.W.F Group is 1.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of N.W.F Group is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of N.W.F Group is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of N.W.F Group (NWF)?
The operating margin of N.W.F Group is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at N.W.F Group (NWF)?
Revenue at N.W.F Group is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at N.W.F Group (NWF)?
Earnings per share at N.W.F Group are growing +84.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does N.W.F Group (NWF) carry?
The net debt of N.W.F Group is £60.5M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026