NWF Group (NWF) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · GB · Market cap 67.7M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +12.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 53% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£1.59). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.13 – £2.20 · fair‑value band £1.59 – £2.66 · the £1.39 price screens below the £2.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
NWF Group (NWF) currently trades at £1.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.13, implying the stock looks roughly 53.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, NWF Group generated revenue of £883M at a net margin of 0.6%. Revenue declined 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.1%. Net debt stands at £53.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £1.59 (bear case) to £2.66 (bull case); at £1.39, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 53%, NWF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£4.48) versus Dividend Discount (£0.8900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NWF Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale and distribution of fuel oils in the United Kingdom. It operates through Fuels, Food, and Feeds segments. The Fuels segment sells and distributes domestic heating, industrial, and road fuels. This segment owns and operates through a network of 27 depots.
Full company description
NWF Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale and distribution of fuel oils in the United Kingdom. It operates through Fuels, Food, and Feeds segments. The Fuels segment sells and distributes domestic heating, industrial, and road fuels. This segment owns and operates through a network of 27 depots. The Food segment is involved in the warehousing and distribution of grocery and other products to supermarkets and other retail distribution centers. The Feeds segment manufactures and sells animal feeds and other agricultural products. The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Nantwich, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NWF Group reported revenue of £903M in FY2025 versus £676M in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was £6.2M in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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