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Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Nexus Minerals Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.05, upside -40.4%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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NM
Thin data
Sep 23, 2026
Nexus Minerals Ltd
NXM · AUWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value A$0.0304 · Strongly overvalued (−40%)
!Quality 29/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.4 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/7)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0320 – A$0.5877 · fair‑value band A$0.0257 – A$0.0304 · the A$0.0510 price screens above the A$0.0304 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Company profile
Nexus Minerals Limited engages in the exploration of mineral properties in Australia. It explores for gold, copper, caesium, tantalum, and tin deposits. Nexus Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM) currently trades at A$0.0510, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0304, implying the stock looks roughly 67.8% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0257 (bear) to A$0.0304 (bull), the price of A$0.0510 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Nexus Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$599K in FY2025 versus A$109K in FY2021, a compound +52.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$5.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$34.4M (≈ $24.2M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −64.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −96.4% · Operating margin −12,064% · Revenue growth (YoY) −53.1% · Free cash flow −A$4.7M · Net cash A$11.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −40%, NXM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0257
Fair Value A$0.0304
Bull A$0.0304
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
A$0.0100
A$0.0100
A$0.0200
50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
A$0.0100
A$0.0100
A$0.0200
50
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
29/100
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Profitability
2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
0/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−56.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +29.2% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
’12
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’20
’21
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−276.4% (2020) → −848.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
NXM screens 68% overvalued. Compare with Zijin Mining Group →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Valuation of the Australia market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥31.41 | ¥43.81 | +39% |
| Newmont Corporation NEM | A$177.02 | A$265.78 | +50% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | $195.57 | $222.49 | +14% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $42.49 | $65.40 | +54% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $260.91 | $287.00 | +10% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | $145.45 | $89.12 | −39% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $104.60 | $88.63 | −15% |
| Zijin Gold International Company 2259 | HK$146.60 | HK$83.20 | −43% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $27.62 | $51.30 | +86% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $252.78 | $278.06 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0304 versus a price of A$0.0510, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NXM?
Our model-based fair value for Nexus Minerals Ltd is A$0.0304 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0510.
What is the quality score of NXM?
Nexus Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0304 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0257, optimistic scenario A$0.0304. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nexus Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0304, about −40% upside versus a price of A$0.0510 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0257, optimistic scenario A$0.0304. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nexus Minerals Ltd it is A$0.0304 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0510. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nexus Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NXM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0510, fair value A$0.0304, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NXM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0510); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0304). For Nexus Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.0206 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nexus Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Nexus Minerals Ltd at about A$34.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0510; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0304 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NXM?
Our models span a range for Nexus Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0257, base A$0.0304, optimistic A$0.0304 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0510). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NXM?
The PEG ratio of Nexus Minerals Ltd is 22.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nexus Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −64.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NXM from its 52-week high?
Nexus Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.0510, about 43% below its 52-week high of A$0.0900 and 24% above the low of A$0.0410 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0304 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nexus Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nexus Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0510, calculated fair value A$0.0304 (−40%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NXM calculated?
We run Nexus Minerals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0304, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Nexus Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0510. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0304, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nexus Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0304). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Nexus Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM)?
The market capitalisation of Nexus Minerals Ltd is A$34.4M (≈ $24.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM)?
Earnings per share at Nexus Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nexus Minerals Ltd is −64.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nexus Minerals Ltd is −96.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM)?
The operating margin of Nexus Minerals Ltd is −12,064% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM)?
Revenue at Nexus Minerals Ltd is growing −53.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +244%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM) generate?
The free cash flow of Nexus Minerals Ltd is −A$4.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Nexus Minerals Ltd (NXM) hold?
Nexus Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$11.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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