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OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 12, 2026: fair value of OceanaGold Corporation $51.81, price $26.22, upside +97.6%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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OC
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
OceanaGold Corporation
OCANF · USStrongly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside with high Quality.
✓Fair value $51.81 · Strongly undervalued (+97.6%)
✓Quality 80/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +31.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 33.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.5% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 76/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.87 – $42.52 · fair‑value band $30.81 – $83.25 · the $26.22 price screens below the $51.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the United States, the Philippines, and New Zealand. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF) currently trades at $26.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.81, implying the stock looks roughly 49.4% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $62.40 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the $26.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.73, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $30.81 (bear) to $83.25 (bull), the price of $26.22 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
OceanaGold Corporation reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $745M in FY2021, a compound +26.8%/yr. Reported net income was $640M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.7B · P/E ratio 9.6 · P/S ratio 3.19 · EPS (TTM) $2.71 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 33.2% · Return on equity 30.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 98%, OCANF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $30.81
Fair Value $51.81
Bull $83.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.96 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$35.37
$62.38
$129.19
75
Growth DCF
$34.29
$66.68
$116.21
75
EPV
$21.33
$24.50
$27.23
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$35.37
$62.38
$129.19
75
Owner Earnings
$28.73
$56.61
$108.73
72
5Y Revenue Exit
$18.13
$28.56
$42.49
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$33.87
$63.74
$103.39
73
5Y P/E Exit
$35.57
$67.54
$106.61
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$23.21
$35.70
$55.04
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$34.09
$62.12
$109.04
66
10Y P/E Exit
$35.23
$64.97
$111.90
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$19.32
$115.58
$161.07
63
Lynch FV
$32.92
$47.03
$61.14
61
PEG = 1.0
$32.92
$47.03
$61.14
57
EPV
$21.33
$24.50
$27.23
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.10
$2.19
$3.32
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.10
$1.89
$2.31
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$36.23
$48.31
$60.38
63
P/S Multiple
$9.63
$12.84
$16.04
58
P/B Multiple
$22.62
$30.16
$37.70
55
EV/EBIT
$36.56
$48.33
$60.10
66
EV/EBITDA
$34.88
$46.09
$57.30
67
EV/Revenue
$10.22
$14.07
$17.92
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.03
$6.73
$10.05
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$34.29
$66.68
$116.21
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$18.13
$28.53
$43.10
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$17.34
$27.06
$64.43
68
ROIC Compounder
$25.15
$34.31
$46.52
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$43.68
$62.40
$81.12
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
80/100
Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Profitability
76
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
94
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
25
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
16
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.5% (2020) → 39.3% (2025)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.3% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+51.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−6.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)−5.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)−4.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)−3.2%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 232 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEM | $115.34 | $126.87 | +10% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥30.01 | ¥44.45 | +48% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | $185.83 | $219.71 | +18% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | $135.39 | $87.78 | −35% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $245.81 | $270.39 | +10% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $99.03 | $88.60 | −11% |
| Zijin Gold International Company 2259 | HK$143.10 | HK$238.73 | +67% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $24.06 | $51.30 | +113% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $238.93 | $262.82 | +10% |
| Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 | ¥29.07 | ¥23.61 | −19% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $51.81 versus the last price from Jun 12, 2026 of $26.22, about +98% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OCANF?
Our model-based fair value for OceanaGold Corporation is $51.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 12, 2026): $26.22.
What is the quality score of OCANF?
OceanaGold Corporation has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $51.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.81, optimistic scenario $83.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the OceanaGold Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $51.81, about +98% upside versus the last price from Jun 12, 2026 of $26.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $30.81, optimistic scenario $83.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
OceanaGold Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does OceanaGold Corporation pay a dividend?
OceanaGold Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, OceanaGold Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +1.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OCANF use?
Our models discount OceanaGold Corporation at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For OceanaGold Corporation that is +1.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at OceanaGold Corporation grew +31.0 % a year. The price currently implies +1.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into OceanaGold Corporation (+1.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.00 %: that much free cash flow OceanaGold Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For OceanaGold Corporation it is $51.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $26.22. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is OceanaGold Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OCANF trades below its calculated fair value: price $26.22, fair value $51.81, a gap of about +98% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OCANF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($26.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($51.81). For OceanaGold Corporation the two are $25.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is OceanaGold Corporation worth?
The market values OceanaGold Corporation at about $7.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $26.22; our models calculate a fair value of $51.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OCANF?
Our models span a range for OceanaGold Corporation: cautious scenario $30.81, base $51.81, optimistic $83.25 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $26.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OCANF?
OceanaGold Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $51.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 9.0, P/B 3.4, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
What is the PEG ratio of OCANF?
The PEG ratio of OceanaGold Corporation is 8.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
Balance-sheet figures for OceanaGold Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 30.1%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OCANF from its 52-week high?
OceanaGold Corporation trades at $26.22, about 38% below its 52-week high of $42.52 and 95% above the low of $13.47 (as of Jun 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $51.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to OceanaGold Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is OceanaGold Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $26.22, calculated fair value $51.81 (+98%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OCANF calculated?
We run OceanaGold Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $51.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. OceanaGold Corporation currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 12, 2026 and stands at $26.22. Our model-based fair value is $51.81, about +98% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with OceanaGold Corporation right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (80/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($30.81). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($30.81 to $83.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF) come from?
Earnings per share at OceanaGold Corporation grew +10.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin +4.2 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of OceanaGold Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
The market capitalisation of OceanaGold Corporation is $7.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of OceanaGold Corporation is 3.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
Earnings per share at OceanaGold Corporation are $2.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
The dividend yield of OceanaGold Corporation is 0.5% (payout 4.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
The net margin of OceanaGold Corporation is 33.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of OceanaGold Corporation is 30.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of OceanaGold Corporation is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
The operating margin of OceanaGold Corporation is 55.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
Revenue at OceanaGold Corporation is growing +52.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF)?
Earnings per share at OceanaGold Corporation are growing +240% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF) hold?
OceanaGold Corporation holds more cash than debt, $426M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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