Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Octava Minerals Ltd A$0.02, price A$0.02, upside -23.5%, quality 15 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
48‑month range A$0.0180 – A$0.2550 · the A$0.0200 price screens above the A$0.0153 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Octava Minerals Limited engages in the exploration of mineral properties in Western Australia. The company explores for copper, zinc, silver, lithium, antimony, nickel, rare earth elements (REE), and platinum group elements (PGM) deposits. The company was formerly known as 8 AU limited and changed its name to Octava Minerals Limited in February 2022.
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Octava Minerals Limited engages in the exploration of mineral properties in Western Australia. The company explores for copper, zinc, silver, lithium, antimony, nickel, rare earth elements (REE), and platinum group elements (PGM) deposits. The company was formerly known as 8 AU limited and changed its name to Octava Minerals Limited in February 2022. Octava Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Nedlands, Australia.
Stock analysis
Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT) currently trades at A$0.0200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0153, implying the stock looks roughly 30.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 15/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Octava Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$1.5K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −A$2.4M in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −24%, OCT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0153Fair Value A$0.0153Bull A$0.0153
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−24% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−14% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−48% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0153 versus a price of A$0.0200, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OCT?
Our model-based fair value for Octava Minerals Ltd is A$0.0153 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0200.
What is the quality score of OCT?
Octava Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 15/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0153 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Octava Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0153, about −24% upside versus a price of A$0.0200 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Octava Minerals Ltd it is A$0.0153 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0200. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Octava Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OCT trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0200, fair value A$0.0153, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OCT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0153). For Octava Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.0047 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Octava Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Octava Minerals Ltd at about A$2.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0200; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0153 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Octava Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −17.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 15/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OCT from its 52-week high?
Octava Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.0200, about 75% below its 52-week high of A$0.0810 and 11% above the low of A$0.0180 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0153 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Octava Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Octava Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0200, calculated fair value A$0.0153 (−24%), Quality Score 15/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OCT calculated?
We run Octava Minerals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0153, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Octava Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0200. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0153, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Octava Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0153). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (15/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Octava Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT)?
The market capitalisation of Octava Minerals Ltd is A$2.4M (≈ $1.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT)?
Earnings per share at Octava Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Octava Minerals Ltd is −17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Octava Minerals Ltd is −133% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT)?
The operating margin of Octava Minerals Ltd is −5,339% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT) generate?
Octava Minerals Ltd generates revenue of −A$10.2K (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT)?
Revenue at Octava Minerals Ltd is growing −48.4% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT) generate?
The free cash flow of Octava Minerals Ltd is −A$1.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Octava Minerals Ltd (OCT) hold?
Octava Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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