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Oklo Inc. (OKLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Oklo Inc. $6.46, price $35.87, upside -82.0%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Utilities · US · ISIN US02156V1098

OI Oklo Inc. logo Thin data Sep 28, 2026

Oklo Inc.

OKLO · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $6.46 · Strongly overvalued (−82.0%)
!Quality 27/100
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/6)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Insider activity 44/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$174.14 $5.59 Fair Value $6.46 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.59 – $174.14 · fair‑value band $4.26 – $8.07 · the $35.87 price screens above the $6.46 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Oklo Inc. develops fission power plants to provide energy at scale to customers in the United States. The company offers Aurora Powerhouse, which is designed to produce between 15 and up to 75 megawatts of electricity.

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Oklo Inc. develops fission power plants to provide energy at scale to customers in the United States. The company offers Aurora Powerhouse, which is designed to produce between 15 and up to 75 megawatts of electricity. It is also commercializing nuclear fuel recycling and fuel fabrication technology that can convert used nuclear fuel into usable fuel for its reactors. The company was formerly known as AltC Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Oklo Inc. in May 2024. Oklo Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Stock analysis

Oklo Inc. (OKLO) currently trades at $35.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.46, 82.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $4.26 (bear) to $8.07 (bull), the price of $35.87 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Oklo Inc. reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$106M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $7.1B · EPS (TTM) $−0.9400 · Return on equity −7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −58.2% · Operating margin −6,049% · Revenue (TTM) $1.2M · EPS growth (YoY) +29.7% · Free cash flow −$115M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 79% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −82%, OKLO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.26 Fair Value $6.46 Bull $8.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $3.97 $5.32 $7.94 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.97 $5.32 $7.94 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 19
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 23
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 6
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

OKLO screens overvalued: fair value 82% below the price. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 72 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −82.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.79× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Constellation Energy Corporation CEG $254.02 $92.53 −64%
Vistra Corp VST $140.83 $20.60 −85%
Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER ₹202.75 ₹75.57 −63%
CGN Power Co 003816 ¥4.19 ¥2.18 −48%
Gulf Development Public Company GULF 59.25 THB 65.18 THB +10%
NRG Energy, Inc NRG $96.93 $74.44 −23%
Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL ₹1,339 ₹335.95 −75%
Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 ¥6.74 ¥9.10 +35%
Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 ¥5.36 ¥3.65 −32%
China Resources Power Holdings 0836 HK$18.99 HK$36.45 +92%

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Oklo Inc. · Fair Value
$6.46 −82%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oklo Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OKLO

Frequently asked questions

Is Oklo Inc. (OKLO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.46 versus a price of $35.87, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OKLO?
Our model-based fair value for Oklo Inc. is $6.46 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.87.
What is the quality score of OKLO?
Oklo Inc. has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.46 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.26, optimistic scenario $8.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oklo Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.46, about −82% upside versus a price of $35.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.26, optimistic scenario $8.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
Oklo Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oklo Inc. it is $6.46 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $35.87. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oklo Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, OKLO trades above its calculated fair value: price $35.87, fair value $6.46, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OKLO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.46). For Oklo Inc. the two are $29.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oklo Inc. worth?
The market values Oklo Inc. at about $7.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $35.87; our models calculate a fair value of $6.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OKLO?
Our models span a range for Oklo Inc.: cautious scenario $4.26, base $6.46, optimistic $8.07 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $35.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oklo Inc. (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −7.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OKLO from its 52-week high?
Oklo Inc. trades at $35.87, about 79% below its 52-week high of $174.14 and 1% above the low of $35.62 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oklo Inc.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oklo Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $35.87, calculated fair value $6.46 (−82%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OKLO calculated?
We run Oklo Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Oklo Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $35.87. Our model-based fair value is $6.46, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oklo Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($4.26 to $8.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Oklo Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
The market capitalisation of Oklo Inc. is $7.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
Earnings per share at Oklo Inc. are $−0.9400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oklo Inc. is −7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oklo Inc. is −58.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
The operating margin of Oklo Inc. is −6,049% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Oklo Inc. (OKLO)?
Earnings per share at Oklo Inc. are growing +29.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Oklo Inc. (OKLO) generate?
The free cash flow of Oklo Inc. is −$115M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Oklo Inc. (OKLO) hold?
Oklo Inc. holds more cash than debt, $787M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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