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Olvi Oyj (OLVAS) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · FI · Market cap €677M

OO Olvi Oyj OLVAS · HE
Price€32.10
Fair Value€47.67
Upside+48.5%
Quality60/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 8.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.13% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Moderate moat 52/100
Evidence: High Range €27.61 – €73.49 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +0.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 49% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (€27.61 to €73.49). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€46.82 €23.95 Fair Value €47.67 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €23.95 – €46.82 · fair‑value band €27.61 – €73.49 · the €32.10 price screens below the €47.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Olvi Oyj (OLVAS) currently trades at €32.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €47.67, implying the stock looks roughly 48.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Olvi Oyj generated revenue of €680M at a net margin of 8.8%. Revenue grew 11.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €13.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €27.61 (bear case) to €73.49 (bull case); at €32.10, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at 49%, OLVAS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €14.22 €19.29 €25.74 80
Residual Income €17.70 €22.77 €52.66 76
Rev-Margin DCF €26.20 €43.95 €64.66 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €14.19 €20.11 €28.21 38
Owner Earnings €17.93 €25.65 €36.21 31
5Y Revenue Exit €26.20 €44.35 €68.08 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €33.47 €58.16 €87.62 41
5Y P/E Exit €32.94 €57.17 €83.16 38
10Y Revenue Exit €20.21 €34.66 €54.97 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €25.35 €43.50 €68.80 37
10Y P/E Exit €25.05 €42.86 €65.65 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €21.02 €71.10 €95.31 54
Lynch FV €16.25 €23.22 €30.18 50
PEG = 1.0 €16.25 €23.22 €30.18 46
EPV €26.08 €29.38 €32.12 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €10.13 €18.26 €25.13 70
DDM Multi-Stage €10.13 €16.36 €19.50 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €48.69 €64.92 €81.15 63
P/S Multiple €38.56 €51.41 €64.27 58
P/B Multiple €39.42 €52.56 €65.69 55
EV/EBIT €51.53 €68.07 €84.60 53
EV/EBITDA €51.58 €68.13 €84.69 54
EV/Revenue €35.66 €50.12 €64.58 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €8.87 €11.88 €17.73 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €14.22 €19.29 €25.74 80
Rev-Margin DCF €26.20 €43.95 €64.66 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €17.70 €22.77 €52.66 76
ROIC Compounder €27.52 €33.23 €39.67 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €41.46 €59.24 €77.01 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€59.24) versus Asset-Based (€11.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €680M
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.4%
Net margin 8.8%
Return on equity 17.1%
Free cash flow €26.5M FY2025
P/E ratio 10.9
More key figures
Operating margin 7.2%
EPS (TTM) €2.91
Dividend yield 4.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -40.0%
Net cash €13.7M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 68
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 48
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Olvi Oyj, a beverage company, produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and Belarus. It offers beer, water, ciders, long drinks, soft drinks, wines, juices, sports drinks, wellness and energy drinks, distillates, kvass, whisky, and other non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages.

Full company description

Olvi Oyj, a beverage company, produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and Belarus. It offers beer, water, ciders, long drinks, soft drinks, wines, juices, sports drinks, wellness and energy drinks, distillates, kvass, whisky, and other non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages. The company also leases beverage-serving equipment to its hotel, restaurant, and catering customers; and coolers to its retailers. Olvi Oyj was founded in 1878 and is headquartered in Iisalmi, Finland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Olvi Oyj reported revenue of €665M in FY2025 versus €462M in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was €64.0M in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€665M
Latest YoY
+1.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+4.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+9.9%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+8.5%
Revenue +9.5%/yr
FY21 €462M
FY22 €584M
FY23 €631M
FY24 €657M
FY25 €665M
Net income +7.5%/yr
FY21 €47.9M
FY22 €8.0M
FY23 €38.3M
FY24 €61.7M
FY25 €64.0M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Olvi Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OLVAS

Peer Group

Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Below median
Fair Value upside +49% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth 11% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.13× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.15× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 29.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.51× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 98 · sector 34
FUTURE 57 · sector 3
PAST 68 · sector 36
HEALTH 98 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 83 · sector 54

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI €73.62 €41.60 -43%
Ambev S.A ABEV 14,120 ARS 6,060 ARS -57%
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD 222.91 MXN 201.74 MXN -9%
Heineken N.V HEIA €77.24 €65.06 -16%
Constellation Brands, Inc STZ $135.72 $177.43 +31%
Carlsberg A/S CARLA kr 1,125 kr 607.30 -46%
Heineken Holding HEIO €71.20 €72.67 +2%
Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 ¥53.60 ¥63.65 +19%
Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 HK$6.58 HK$6.05 -8%
Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA C$63.10 C$74.42 +18%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Olvi Oyj (OLVAS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €47.67 versus a price of €32.10, about +49% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OLVAS?
Our model-based fair value for Olvi Oyj is €47.67 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €32.10.
What is the quality score of OLVAS?
Olvi Oyj has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Olvi Oyj (OLVAS)?
Olvi Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €680M (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of OLVAS?
The net profit margin of Olvi Oyj is about 8.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Olvi Oyj pay a dividend?
Olvi Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.33% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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