Orca Energy Group (ORC-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Orca Energy Group C$6.96, price C$2.32, upside +200.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Orca Energy Group for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.02 – C$3.91 · fair‑value band C$5.22 – C$8.70 · the C$2.32 price screens below the C$6.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Orca Energy Group Inc. engages in the exploration, development, production, and supply of petroleum and natural gas to the power and industrial sectors in Tanzania. Its principal asset is the Songo Songo block comprising an area of approximately 41,630 acres located to the south of Dar Es Salaam. The company was formerly known as Orca Exploration Group Inc.
Show more
Orca Energy Group Inc. engages in the exploration, development, production, and supply of petroleum and natural gas to the power and industrial sectors in Tanzania. Its principal asset is the Songo Songo block comprising an area of approximately 41,630 acres located to the south of Dar Es Salaam. The company was formerly known as Orca Exploration Group Inc. and changed its name to Orca Energy Group Inc. in July 2020. Orca Energy Group Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Road Town, British Virgin Islands.
Stock analysis
Orca Energy Group (ORC-B) currently trades at C$2.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$6.96, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$48.84 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$2.32 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$1.70, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$5.22 (bear) to C$8.70 (bull), the price of C$2.32 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orca Energy Group reported revenue of $87.2M in FY2025 versus $86.0M in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.8M in FY2025, compounding −14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$45.9M (≈ $32.6M) · P/E ratio 3.3 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) C$0.8700 · Dividend yield 12.3% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 29.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, ORC-B screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$5.22Fair Value C$6.96Bull C$8.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs 24%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 45%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 305 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)29% · Top 25%
Return on assets16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)37% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)12.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orca Energy Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORC-B
Frequently asked questions
Is Orca Energy Group (ORC-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$6.96 versus a price of C$2.32, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORC-B?
Our model-based fair value for Orca Energy Group is C$6.96 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$2.32.
What is the quality score of ORC-B?
Orca Energy Group has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$6.96 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$5.22, optimistic scenario C$8.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orca Energy Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$6.96, about +200% upside versus a price of C$2.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$5.22, optimistic scenario C$8.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
Orca Energy Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$90.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Orca Energy Group pay a dividend?
Orca Energy Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orca Energy Group it is C$6.96 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of C$2.32. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orca Energy Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ORC-B trades below its calculated fair value: price C$2.32, fair value C$6.96, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORC-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$2.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$6.96). For Orca Energy Group the two are C$4.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orca Energy Group worth?
The market values Orca Energy Group at about C$45.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is C$2.32; our models calculate a fair value of C$6.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORC-B?
Our models span a range for Orca Energy Group: cautious scenario C$5.22, base C$6.96, optimistic C$8.70 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price C$2.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORC-B?
Orca Energy Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.3 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$6.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orca Energy Group (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 29.3%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORC-B from its 52-week high?
Orca Energy Group trades at C$2.32, about 48% below its 52-week high of C$4.46 and 86% above the low of C$1.25 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$6.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orca Energy Group?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orca Energy Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price C$2.32, calculated fair value C$6.96 (+200%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORC-B calculated?
We run Orca Energy Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$6.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Orca Energy Group currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was C$2.32. Our model-based fair value is C$6.96, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orca Energy Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$5.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Orca Energy Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
The market capitalisation of Orca Energy Group is C$45.9M (≈ $32.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orca Energy Group is 0.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
Earnings per share at Orca Energy Group are C$0.8700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
The dividend yield of Orca Energy Group is 12.3% (payout 32.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
The net margin of Orca Energy Group is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orca Energy Group is 29.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orca Energy Group is 22.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
The operating margin of Orca Energy Group is 37.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
Revenue at Orca Energy Group is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orca Energy Group (ORC-B)?
Earnings per share at Orca Energy Group are growing +33.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orca Energy Group (ORC-B) generate?
The free cash flow of Orca Energy Group is C$73.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Orca Energy Group (ORC-B) hold?
Orca Energy Group holds more cash than debt, C$61.1M net (fiscal year 2023). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Orca Energy Group in the live analysis
One click puts Orca Energy Group on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 13, 2026