Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 31, 2026: fair value of Orla Mining Ltd $12.47, price $9.44, upside +32.1%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.39 – $21.67 · fair‑value band $8.73 – $16.21 · the $9.44 price screens below the $12.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Orla Mining Ltd. acquires, explores, develops, and exploits mineral properties. It explores gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper deposits.
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Orla Mining Ltd. acquires, explores, develops, and exploits mineral properties. It explores gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper deposits. The company owns 100% interests in the Camino Rojo project that consists of seven concessions covering an area of 138,636 hectares located in Zacatecas, Mexico; Cerro Quema project totaling an area of 15,000 hectares located in the Azuero Peninsula, Panama; and the South Railroad project consisting of an area of 21,000 hectares located in Elko, Nevada. It also holds interest in acquisition of the Musselwhite Gold Mine project located in Ontario, Canada. The company was formerly known as Red Mile Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Orla Mining Ltd. in June 2015. Orla Mining Ltd. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA) currently trades at $9.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.47, implying the stock looks roughly 24.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $26.95 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the $9.44 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.46, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.73 (bear) to $16.21 (bull), the price of $9.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orla Mining Ltd reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $4.1M in FY2021, a compound +301.9%/yr. Reported net income was $109M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 1.32 · EPS (TTM) $0.7200 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 42.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 32%, ORLA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.73Fair Value $12.47Bull $16.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5331 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+212.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.2%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+25.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−540% → 44%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.1% a year for the price and +17.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 234 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside+32.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)42.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)19.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)52.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth169.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.47 versus the last price from Jul 31, 2026 of $9.44, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORLA?
Our model-based fair value for Orla Mining Ltd is $12.47 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 31, 2026): $9.44.
What is the quality score of ORLA?
Orla Mining Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.47 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.73, optimistic scenario $16.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orla Mining Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.47, about +32% upside versus the last price from Jul 31, 2026 of $9.44 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.73, optimistic scenario $16.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
Orla Mining Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Orla Mining Ltd pay a dividend?
Orla Mining Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orla Mining Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -15.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +301.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORLA use?
Our models discount Orla Mining Ltd at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.17, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orla Mining Ltd that is -15.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Orla Mining Ltd grew +301.9 % a year. The price currently implies -15.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orla Mining Ltd (-15.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.14 %: that much free cash flow Orla Mining Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orla Mining Ltd it is $12.47 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.44. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orla Mining Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ORLA trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.44, fair value $12.47, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORLA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.47). For Orla Mining Ltd the two are $3.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orla Mining Ltd worth?
The market values Orla Mining Ltd at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.44; our models calculate a fair value of $12.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORLA?
Our models span a range for Orla Mining Ltd: cautious scenario $8.73, base $12.47, optimistic $16.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORLA?
Orla Mining Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.1, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orla Mining Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 42.0%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORLA from its 52-week high?
Orla Mining Ltd trades at $9.44, about 56% below its 52-week high of $21.67 and 10% above the low of $8.61 (as of Jul 31, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orla Mining Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orla Mining Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.44, calculated fair value $12.47 (+32%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORLA calculated?
We run Orla Mining Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Orla Mining Ltd currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 31, 2026 and stands at $9.44. Our model-based fair value is $12.47, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orla Mining Ltd right now?
Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($8.73 to $16.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Orla Mining Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
The market capitalisation of Orla Mining Ltd is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orla Mining Ltd is 1.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
Earnings per share at Orla Mining Ltd are $0.7200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
The dividend yield of Orla Mining Ltd is 0.2% (payout 2.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
The net margin of Orla Mining Ltd is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orla Mining Ltd is 42.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orla Mining Ltd is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
The operating margin of Orla Mining Ltd is 52.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
Revenue at Orla Mining Ltd is growing +169% versus a year earlier (3y avg +77.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)?
Earnings per share at Orla Mining Ltd are growing +171% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA) hold?
Orla Mining Ltd holds more cash than debt, $54.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026