Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $3.3B
Orla Mining Ltd
ORLA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $5.34 to $4.92 (−7.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($3.69 to $7.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.39 – $21.67 · fair‑value band $3.69 – $7.05 · the $9.44 price screens above the $4.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA) currently trades at $9.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.92, implying the stock looks roughly 47.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Orla Mining Ltd generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 19.5%. Revenue grew 169.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 42.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $54.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.69 (bear case) to $7.05 (bull case); at $9.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -48%, ORLA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($26.37) versus Asset-Based ($1.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orla Mining Ltd. acquires, explores, develops, and exploits mineral properties. It explores gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper deposits.
Full company description
Orla Mining Ltd. acquires, explores, develops, and exploits mineral properties. It explores gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper deposits. The company owns 100% interests in the Camino Rojo project that consists of seven concessions covering an area of 138,636 hectares located in Zacatecas, Mexico; Cerro Quema project totaling an area of 15,000 hectares located in the Azuero Peninsula, Panama; and the South Railroad project consisting of an area of 21,000 hectares located in Elko, Nevada. It also holds interest in acquisition of the Musselwhite Gold Mine project located in Ontario, Canada. The company was formerly known as Red Mile Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Orla Mining Ltd. in June 2015. Orla Mining Ltd. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orla Mining Ltd reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $4.1M in FY2021, a compound +301.9%/yr. Reported net income was $109M in FY2025.
ORLA screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Equinox Gold and Orla Mining Complete Business Combination, Creating North America's New Senior Gold Producer
- Equinox Gold and Orla Mining Complete Business Combination, Creating North America’s New Senior Gold Producer
- Orla Receives Court Approval for Business Combination with Equinox Gold
- AEM vs. ORLA: Which Gold Miner Deserves a Spot in Your Portfolio?
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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