Orion Oyj (ORNAV) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · FI · Market cap €9.8B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from €52.73 to €52.58 (−0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +14.0% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide (€30.75 to €84.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €28.69 – €82.00 · fair‑value band €30.75 – €84.60 · the €81.60 price screens above the €52.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Orion Oyj (ORNAV) currently trades at €81.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €52.58, implying the stock looks roughly 35.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 76/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Orion Oyj generated revenue of €2.0B at a net margin of 27.1%. Revenue grew 17.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 48.4%. Net debt stands at €145M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €30.75 (bear case) to €84.60 (bull case); at €81.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -36%, ORNAV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€62.11) versus Asset-Based (€6.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orion Oyj develops, manufactures, and markets human and veterinary pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in Finland, Scandinavia, rest of Europe, North America, and internationally.
Full company description
Orion Oyj develops, manufactures, and markets human and veterinary pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in Finland, Scandinavia, rest of Europe, North America, and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products, which includes Nubeqa for the treatment of prostate cancer; Entacapone, Stalevo, Comtess, and Comtan to treat Parkinson's disease; Burana for inflammatory pain; Divina series for menopausal symptoms; Simdax for acute decompensated heart failure; Fareston for breast cancer; Quetiapine products for antipsychotic; Trexan for rheumatoid arthritis and cancer; Easyhaler product portfolio for asthma and COPD; and Dexdor, Precedex, and Dexmedetomidine products for human use. The company also provides Salmeterol/fluticasone Easyhaler, Budesonide/formoterol Easyhaler, Formoterol Easyhaler, Budesonide Easyhaler, Beclomet Easyhaler, and Buventol Easyhaler drugs for the treatment of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In addition, it offers veterinary drugs comprising Bonqat, Clevor, Domosedan, Domitor, Antisedan, Dexdomitor, Domosedan Gel, Sileo, and Tessie; APIs for generic compounds and proprietary products, as well as contract manufacturing services; and markets and sells drugs and products manufactured by other companies. Additionally, the company provides self-care products, including non-prescription medicines, cosmetics, dietary supplements, vitamins, and skincare products. It also offers its products online. The company has a licensing agreement with Tenax Therapeutics, Inc. to develop oral levosimendan (TNX-103) for pulmonary hypertension in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (PH-HFpEF); and Bayer for the development and commercialisation of darolutamide Nubeqa. Orion Oyj was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Espo, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orion Oyj reported revenue of €1.9B in FY2025 versus €1.0B in FY2021, a compound +16.1%/yr. Reported net income was €500M in FY2025, compounding +26.8%/yr from FY2021.
ORNAV screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Orion Group Half-Year Financial Report January–June 2026
- Orion Corporation’s financial reporting and Annual General Meeting in 2027
- 45,611 Orion Corporation A shares converted into B shares
- Orion and Shilpa Medicare Expand Partnership to Develop and Supply Nivolumab Biosimilar for Europe
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,182 | $396.77 | -66% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $257.59 | $169.04 | -34% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $254.49 | $67.72 | -73% |
| Roche Holding 1RO | €377.80 | €280.03 | -26% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €108.08 | €121.54 | +12% |
| Novartis AG NVSN | 2,742 MXN | 2,379 MXN | -13% |
| AstraZeneca PLC AZN | $171.61 | $129.54 | -25% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 329.90 | kr 409.46 | +24% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $363.39 | $252.02 | -31% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $134.28 | $146.50 | +9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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