Orion Oyj A (ORNAV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orion Oyj A stock €53.20, price €101, that is 47.3% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €28.39 – €101.00 · fair‑value band €31.14 – €82.68 · the €101.00 price screens above the €53.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Orion Oyj develops, manufactures, and markets human and veterinary pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in Finland, Scandinavia, rest of Europe, North America, and internationally.
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It offers pharmaceutical products, which includes Nubeqa for the treatment of prostate cancer; Entacapone, Stalevo, Comtess, and Comtan to treat Parkinson's disease; Burana for inflammatory pain; Divina series for menopausal symptoms; Simdax for acute decompensated heart failure; Fareston for breast cancer; Quetiapine products for antipsychotic; Trexan for rheumatoid arthritis and cancer; Easyhaler product portfolio for asthma and COPD; and Dexdor, Precedex, and Dexmedetomidine products for human use.
The company also provides Salmeterol/fluticasone Easyhaler, Budesonide/formoterol Easyhaler, Formoterol Easyhaler, Budesonide Easyhaler, Beclomet Easyhaler, and Buventol Easyhaler drugs for the treatment of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
In addition, it offers veterinary drugs comprising Bonqat, Clevor, Domosedan, Domitor, Antisedan, Dexdomitor, Domosedan Gel, Sileo, and Tessie; APIs for generic compounds and proprietary products, as well as contract manufacturing services; and markets and sells drugs and products manufactured by other companies.
Additionally, the company provides self-care products, including non-prescription medicines, cosmetics, dietary supplements, vitamins, and skincare products. It also offers its products online.
The company has a licensing agreement with Tenax Therapeutics, Inc. to develop oral levosimendan (TNX-103) for pulmonary hypertension in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (PH-HFpEF); and Bayer for the development and commercialisation of darolutamide Nubeqa.
Orion Oyj was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Espo, Finland.
Stock analysis
Orion Oyj A (ORNAV) currently trades at €101.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €53.20, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €67.59 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €101.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €21.20, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €31.14 (bear) to €82.68 (bull), the price of €101.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orion Oyj A reported revenue of €1.9B in FY2025 versus €1.0B in FY2021, a compound +16.1%/yr. Reported net income was €500M in FY2025, compounding +26.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €14.2B Large · P/E ratio 21.5 · P/S ratio 6.54 · EPS (TTM) €4.68 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 30.3% · Return on equity 54.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 92 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −47%, ORNAV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€31.14Fair Value €53.20Bull€82.68
Price €101.00 · Downside -47.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.45 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+19.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.1% vs 9.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 33%
2025 sits 52% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.4% a year for the price and +9.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (79 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: High reported margins and ROE indicate potential strength, yet thin public data leave durability and competitive moat unconfirmed.
Main risk: Ongoing Hatch-Waxman litigation with generic makers such as Hetero could shorten Nubeqa exclusivity beyond 2033 and reduce royalty income from the Bayer partnership.
Bull case: Orion could leverage its expanding oncology pipeline and AI-enhanced discovery platform to offset any Nubeqa revenue pressure with new approved biologics and expanded indications.
Bear case: Earlier generic entry for Nubeqa combined with sustained EU price erosion could materially reduce royalties and specialty margins without sufficient offsetting pipeline success.
Orion is advancing its first biologic candidate into the clinic with the initial patient dosed in the ODM-216 Phase 1/2 trial for advanced solid tumors. This step expands capabilities from small molecules into immuno-oncology biologics developed across its sites. The move could open fresh revenue streams in oncology, yet early-stage assets face long odds of reaching the market and generating meaningful returns. Will the potential gains from this strategic shift exceed the ongoing R&D costs and risks?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−47.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)54.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets24.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)30.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)38.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)28.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B11.08× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.54× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow64.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA16.0× · Pricier than median
PEG5.73× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)36· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orion Oyj A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORNAV
Frequently asked questions
Is Orion Oyj A (ORNAV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €53.20 versus a price of €101.00, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORNAV?
Our model-based fair value for Orion Oyj A is €53.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €101.00.
What is the quality score of ORNAV?
Orion Oyj A has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €53.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €31.14, optimistic scenario €82.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orion Oyj A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €53.20, about 47% lower versus a price of €101.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €31.14, optimistic scenario €82.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
Orion Oyj A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Orion Oyj A pay a dividend?
Orion Oyj A currently shows a dividend yield of 1.78% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orion Oyj A would have to grow free cash flow by +27.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORNAV use?
Our models discount Orion Oyj A at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orion Oyj A that is +27.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orion Oyj A (ORNAV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orion Oyj A grew +11.9 % a year. The price currently implies +27.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orion Oyj A (+27.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.54 %: that much free cash flow Orion Oyj A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orion Oyj A it is €53.20 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €101.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orion Oyj A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ORNAV trades above its calculated fair value: price €101.00, fair value €53.20, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORNAV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€101.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€53.20). For Orion Oyj A the two are €47.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orion Oyj A worth?
The market values Orion Oyj A at about €14.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €101.00; our models calculate a fair value of €53.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORNAV?
Our models span a range for Orion Oyj A: cautious scenario €31.14, base €53.20, optimistic €82.68 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €101.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORNAV?
Orion Oyj A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €53.20 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 22.2. Other multiples: PEG 5.7, P/B 11.1, P/S 6.5, EV/EBITDA 16.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ORNAV?
The PEG ratio of Orion Oyj A is 5.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orion Oyj A (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 54.5%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORNAV from its 52-week high?
Orion Oyj A trades at €101.00, at its 52-week high of €101.00 and 81% above the low of €55.66 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €53.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orion Oyj A?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orion Oyj A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €101.00, calculated fair value €53.20 (−47%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORNAV calculated?
We run Orion Oyj A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €53.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Orion Oyj A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €101.00. Our model-based fair value is €53.20, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orion Oyj A right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€82.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€31.14 to €82.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV) come from?
Earnings per share at Orion Oyj A grew +5.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orion Oyj A
How large is the market capitalisation of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
The market capitalisation of Orion Oyj A is €14.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orion Oyj A is 6.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
Earnings per share at Orion Oyj A are €4.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
The dividend yield of Orion Oyj A is 1.8% (payout 38.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
The net margin of Orion Oyj A is 30.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orion Oyj A is 54.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orion Oyj A is 25.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
The operating margin of Orion Oyj A is 38.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
Revenue at Orion Oyj A is growing +28.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orion Oyj A (ORNAV)?
Earnings per share at Orion Oyj A are growing +75.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orion Oyj A (ORNAV) carry?
The net debt of Orion Oyj A is €145M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026