Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Orvana Minerals Corp. C$0.42, price C$2.36, upside -82.2%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value C$0.4200 · Strongly overvalued (−82.2%)
!Quality 39/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −0.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.3% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers(7/11)
!Moderate moat46/100
!Insider activity40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.1150 – C$2.79 · fair‑value band C$0.1800 – C$0.6600 · the C$2.36 price screens above the C$0.4200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Orvana Minerals Corp., a mining and exploration company, engages in the evaluation, development, and mining of gold, copper, silver, and other precious and base metal deposits. It owns and operates El Valle and Carlés mines that produces copper concentrate located in the Rio Narcea Gold Belt, northern Spain.
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Orvana Minerals Corp., a mining and exploration company, engages in the evaluation, development, and mining of gold, copper, silver, and other precious and base metal deposits. It owns and operates El Valle and Carlés mines that produces copper concentrate located in the Rio Narcea Gold Belt, northern Spain. The company also owns Don Mario Mine containing 10 contiguous mineral concessions covering an area of approximately 53,325 hectares situated in Don Mario district, southeastern Bolivia. In addition, it owns interest in the Taguas property, which consist of 15 mining concessions located in San Juan, Argentina. The company is based in Toronto, Canada. Orvana Minerals Corp. operates as a subsidiary of Fabulosa Mines Limited.
Stock analysis
Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV) currently trades at C$2.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.4200, 82.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$0.6000 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the C$2.36 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$0.3200, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.1800 (bear) to C$0.6600 (bull), the price of C$2.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Orvana Minerals Corp. reported revenue of $98.9M in FY2025 versus $106M in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$12.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$322M (≈ $227M) · P/S ratio 1.97 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.0100 · Net margin −12.4% · Return on equity −3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% · Operating margin 47.6% · Revenue (TTM) $137M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 281% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −82%, ORV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$0.1800Fair Value C$0.4200Bull C$0.6600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.0% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.5% (2019) → 7.3% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Above median
Fair Value upside−82.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets12.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)47.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth103.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.14× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/B5.02× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.66× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA5.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 72
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)43· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.4200 versus a price of C$2.36, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORV?
Our model-based fair value for Orvana Minerals Corp. is C$0.4200 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$2.36.
What is the quality score of ORV?
Orvana Minerals Corp. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.4200 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.1800, optimistic scenario C$0.6600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orvana Minerals Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.4200, about −82% upside versus a price of C$2.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$0.1800, optimistic scenario C$0.6600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
Orvana Minerals Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $137M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orvana Minerals Corp. it is C$0.4200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$2.36. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orvana Minerals Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ORV trades above its calculated fair value: price C$2.36, fair value C$0.4200, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$2.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.4200). For Orvana Minerals Corp. the two are C$1.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orvana Minerals Corp. worth?
The market values Orvana Minerals Corp. at about C$322M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$2.36; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.4200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORV?
Our models span a range for Orvana Minerals Corp.: cautious scenario C$0.1800, base C$0.4200, optimistic C$0.6600 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$2.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orvana Minerals Corp. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −3.3%, debt of 1.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORV from its 52-week high?
Orvana Minerals Corp. trades at C$2.36, about 15% below its 52-week high of C$2.79 and 281% above the low of C$0.6200 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.4200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orvana Minerals Corp.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orvana Minerals Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$2.36, calculated fair value C$0.4200 (−82%), Quality Score 39/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORV calculated?
We run Orvana Minerals Corp. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.4200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Orvana Minerals Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$2.36. Our model-based fair value is C$0.4200, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orvana Minerals Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.6600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (C$0.1800 to C$0.6600). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Orvana Minerals Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
The market capitalisation of Orvana Minerals Corp. is C$322M (≈ $227M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orvana Minerals Corp. is 1.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
Earnings per share at Orvana Minerals Corp. are C$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
The net margin of Orvana Minerals Corp. is −12.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orvana Minerals Corp. is −3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orvana Minerals Corp. is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
The operating margin of Orvana Minerals Corp. is 47.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
Revenue at Orvana Minerals Corp. is growing +103% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV)?
Earnings per share at Orvana Minerals Corp. are growing +38.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV) generate?
The free cash flow of Orvana Minerals Corp. is −$16.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV) carry?
The net debt of Orvana Minerals Corp. is $51.9M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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