CD Projekt SA (OTGLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CD Projekt SA $17.89, price $16.31, upside +9.7%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.03 – $20.20 · fair‑value band $8.86 – $33.09 · the $16.31 price screens below the $17.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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CD Projekt S.A., together its subsidiaries, engages in the production, publishing, and digital distribution of video games and related products in Poland. The company's flagship products include The Witcher series of games and Cyberpunk 2077. It also exports its products to Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa.
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CD Projekt S.A., together its subsidiaries, engages in the production, publishing, and digital distribution of video games and related products in Poland. The company's flagship products include The Witcher series of games and Cyberpunk 2077. It also exports its products to Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
CD Projekt SA (OTGLY) currently trades at $16.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.89, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $15.07 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $16.31 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.82, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.86 (bear) to $33.09 (bull), the price of $16.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CD Projekt SA reported revenue of 829M PLN in FY2025 versus 888M PLN in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was 504M PLN in FY2025, compounding +24.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.6B · P/E ratio 41.8 · P/S ratio 25.4 · EPS (TTM) $0.3900 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 60.8% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 81% fair-value upside, at 10%, OTGLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.86Fair Value $17.89Bull $33.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2949 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.2% vs 6.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 53%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+170.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in PLN, Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.8% a year for the price and +162.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (80 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 139 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CD Projekt SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OTGLY
Frequently asked questions
Is CD Projekt SA (OTGLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.89 versus a price of $16.31, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of OTGLY?
Our model-based fair value for CD Projekt SA is $17.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.31.
What is the quality score of OTGLY?
CD Projekt SA has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.86, optimistic scenario $33.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CD Projekt SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.89, about +10% upside versus a price of $16.31 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $8.86, optimistic scenario $33.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
CD Projekt SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does CD Projekt SA pay a dividend?
CD Projekt SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CD Projekt SA would have to grow free cash flow by +22.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -17.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OTGLY use?
Our models discount CD Projekt SA at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CD Projekt SA that is +22.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CD Projekt SA (OTGLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CD Projekt SA grew -17.3 % a year. The price currently implies +22.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CD Projekt SA (+22.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.01 %: that much free cash flow CD Projekt SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CD Projekt SA it is $17.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $16.31. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CD Projekt SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OTGLY trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.31, fair value $17.89, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTGLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.89). For CD Projekt SA the two are $1.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CD Projekt SA worth?
The market values CD Projekt SA at about $6.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $16.31; our models calculate a fair value of $17.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTGLY?
Our models span a range for CD Projekt SA: cautious scenario $8.86, base $17.89, optimistic $33.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $16.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OTGLY?
CD Projekt SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.8, P/S 22.7, EV/EBITDA 51.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for CD Projekt SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTGLY from its 52-week high?
CD Projekt SA trades at $16.31, about 19% below its 52-week high of $20.20 and 12% above the low of $14.50 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CD Projekt SA?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, Zhejiang Century Huatong Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CD Projekt SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $16.31, calculated fair value $17.89 (+10%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTGLY calculated?
We run CD Projekt SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CD Projekt SA currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $16.31. Our model-based fair value is $17.89, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CD Projekt SA right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($8.86 to $33.09). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY) come from?
Earnings per share at CD Projekt SA grew +9.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CD Projekt SA
How large is the market capitalisation of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
The market capitalisation of CD Projekt SA is $6.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CD Projekt SA is 25.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
Earnings per share at CD Projekt SA are $0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
The dividend yield of CD Projekt SA is 0.5% (payout 19.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
The net margin of CD Projekt SA is 60.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CD Projekt SA is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CD Projekt SA is 14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
Revenue at CD Projekt SA is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CD Projekt SA (OTGLY)?
Earnings per share at CD Projekt SA are growing −5.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does CD Projekt SA (OTGLY) hold?
CD Projekt SA holds more cash than debt, 87.9M PLN net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026