Roblox Corporation (RBLX) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $40.9B
Roblox Corporation
RBLX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $2.06 to $21.20 (+929.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −36.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 41% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($14.65 to $27.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.19 – $141.56 · fair‑value band $14.65 – $27.76 · the $36.04 price screens above the $21.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Roblox Corporation (RBLX) currently trades at $36.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.20, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Roblox Corporation generated revenue of $5.3B at a net margin of -20.7%. Revenue grew 39.3% year over year. Net debt stands at $431M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.65 (bear case) to $27.76 (bull case); at $36.04, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -9% fair-value upside, at -41%, RBLX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($47.02) versus Asset-Based ($0.3900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Roblox Corporation operates an immersive platform for connection and communication in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Roblox Corporation operates an immersive platform for connection and communication in the United States and internationally. It offers Roblox Client, an application that allows users to explore immersive experience; Roblox Studio, a free toolset that allows developers and creators to build, publish, and operate immersive experiences and other content; and Roblox Cloud, which provides services and infrastructure that power the platform. Roblox Corporation was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Roblox Corporation reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +26.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.1B in FY2025.
RBLX screens 41% overvalued. Compare with NetEase, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- RBLX UPCOMING DEADLINE : The Gross Law Firm Alerts Roblox Corporation Stockholders of Securities Class Action - Contact the Firm
- RBLX DEADLINE TOMORROW: ROSEN, SKILLED INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages Roblox Corporation Investors with Losses in Excess of $100K to Secure Co
- RBLX 2-DAY DEADLINE ALERT: Roblox Corporation (RBLX) Facing Securities Class Action Amid Surprise Age Verification Impact, Investors with Lo
- Relative Strength Alert For Roblox
Peer Group
Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 152 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Electronic Gaming & Multimedia median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NetEase, Inc 9999 | HK$202.60 | HK$192.74 | -5% |
| Electronic Arts Inc EA | $207.27 | $76.57 | -63% |
| Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc TTWO | $237.04 | $60.45 | -74% |
| Zhejiang Century Huatong Group 002602 | ¥14.04 | ¥14.68 | +5% |
| KRAFTON, Inc 259960 | 240,500 KRW | 395,557 KRW | +64% |
| Kunlun Tech Co 300418 | ¥44.61 | ¥6.87 | -85% |
| Giant Network Group 002558 | ¥29.98 | ¥15.69 | -48% |
| International Games System Co 3293 | 704.00 TWD | 568.16 TWD | -19% |
| 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group 002555 | ¥19.02 | ¥22.29 | +17% |
| Kingnet Network Co 002517 | ¥16.69 | ¥15.15 | -9% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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