Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Occidental Petroleum Corporation MXN 467, price MXN 1,006, upside -53.6%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 418.84 MXN – 1,425 MXN · fair‑value band 439.75 MXN – 583.19 MXN · the 1,006 MXN price screens above the 466.55 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing.
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Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. This segment also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1) currently trades at 1,006 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 466.55 MXN, 53.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 470.34 MXN per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the 1,006 MXN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 268.95 MXN, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 439.75 MXN (bear) to 583.19 MXN (bull), the price of 1,006 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation reported revenue of $21.6B in FY2025 versus $36.6B in FY2022, a compound −16.2%/yr. Reported net income was $2.3B in FY2025, compounding −44.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 992B MXN (≈ $54.7B) · P/E ratio 17.5 · P/S ratio 1.89 · EPS (TTM) 57.44 MXN · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 10.8% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −54%, OXY1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 439.75 MXNFair Value 466.55 MXNBull 583.19 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (42.68 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.2%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−28.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−28.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 17%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.9% a year for the price and −3.5% for the forecasts.
Compare Occidental Petroleum Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 287 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside−42.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.6% · Above median
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)30.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)45.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth53.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.5× · Pricier than median
P/B1.51× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.27× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF13.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.84× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 74
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 466.55 MXN versus a price of 1,006 MXN, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OXY1?
Our model-based fair value for Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 466.55 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,006 MXN.
What is the quality score of OXY1?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 466.55 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario 439.75 MXN, optimistic scenario 583.19 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 466.55 MXN, about −54% upside versus a price of 1,006 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 439.75 MXN, optimistic scenario 583.19 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $23.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Occidental Petroleum Corporation pay a dividend?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Occidental Petroleum Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +8.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -16.2 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OXY1 use?
Our models discount Occidental Petroleum Corporation at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Occidental Petroleum Corporation that is +8.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Occidental Petroleum Corporation grew -16.2 % a year. The price currently implies +8.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Occidental Petroleum Corporation (+8.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.51 %: that much free cash flow Occidental Petroleum Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Occidental Petroleum Corporation it is 466.55 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 1,006 MXN. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, OXY1 trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,006 MXN, fair value 466.55 MXN, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OXY1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,006 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (466.55 MXN). For Occidental Petroleum Corporation the two are 539.45 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Occidental Petroleum Corporation worth?
The market values Occidental Petroleum Corporation at about 992B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 1,006 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 466.55 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OXY1?
Our models span a range for Occidental Petroleum Corporation: cautious scenario 439.75 MXN, base 466.55 MXN, optimistic 583.19 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 1,006 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OXY1?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 466.55 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.5, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
What is the PEG ratio of OXY1?
The PEG ratio of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 0.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OXY1 from its 52-week high?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation trades at 1,006 MXN, about 15% below its 52-week high of 1,189 MXN and 45% above the low of 693.63 MXN (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 466.55 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Occidental Petroleum Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 1,006 MXN, calculated fair value 466.55 MXN (−54%), Quality Score 48/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OXY1 calculated?
We run Occidental Petroleum Corporation through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 466.55 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Occidental Petroleum Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was 1,006 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 466.55 MXN, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Occidental Petroleum Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (583.19 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Occidental Petroleum Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
The market capitalisation of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 992B MXN (≈ $54.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 1.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
Earnings per share at Occidental Petroleum Corporation are 57.44 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
The dividend yield of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 0.1% (payout 1.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
The net margin of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 10.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 8.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
The operating margin of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 45.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
Revenue at Occidental Petroleum Corporation is growing +53.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1)?
Earnings per share at Occidental Petroleum Corporation are growing +965% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY1) carry?
The net debt of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is $19.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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