Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Plains GP Holdings LP stock $10.40, price $25.78, that is 59.7% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.65 – $28.87 · fair‑value band $8.69 – $15.77 · the $25.78 price screens above the $10.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Plains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream infrastructure systems in the United States and Canada. It operates through Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) segments.
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The company engages in the gathering and transporting crude oil using pipelines, trucks, and barges or railcars. It also provides terminalling, storage, and other related services.
In addition, the company is involved in the natural gas processing and NGL fractionation, storage, transportation, and terminalling activities. PAA GP Holdings LLC operates as a general partner of the company. Plains GP Holdings, L.P. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) currently trades at $25.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.40, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $20.16 per share, and 2 of the 23 models we run sit above the $25.78 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.96, and 21 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.69 (bear) to $15.77 (bull), the price of $25.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Plains GP Holdings LP reported revenue of $44.3B in FY2025 versus $42.1B in FY2021, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was $260M in FY2025, compounding +44.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.0B Mid · P/E ratio 58.6 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) $0.4400 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −60%, PAGP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.69Fair Value $10.40Bull$15.77
Price $25.78 · Downside -59.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.1% vs 0.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.0% a year for the price and +3.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Contracted fees lend some stability to the midstream network, yet high leverage and limited differentiation from commodity exposure remain the core constraints.
Main risk: Other midstream operators such as Enbridge acquiring assets in the Powder River Basin or Enterprise Products in joint ventures could draw away producer volumes or force lower transportation rates on Plains pipelines and gathering systems.
Bull case: By integrating the new Powder River assets and expanding Permian gathering with long-term producer contracts Plains could secure higher utilization and defend margins against rival bids.
Bear case: If rivals secure more dedicated acreage or regulators impose stricter pipeline rules spare capacity in acquired systems could persist and limit cash flow growth from the crude-focused portfolio.
Plains is acquiring Powder River Basin midstream assets for around 585 million dollars to strengthen its Rockies position and gain access to dedicated producer acreage. The deal adds substantial pipeline and storage capacity with long-term contracts, yet the system currently runs well below its full throughput potential. Will integration and volume growth offset the added scale, or will spare capacity limit returns?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−59.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.3% · Below median
Return on assets5.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)66.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity7.95× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)58.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.70× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 55
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 79
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Plains GP Holdings LP Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAGP
Frequently asked questions
Is Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.40 versus a price of $25.78, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PAGP?
Our model-based fair value for Plains GP Holdings LP is $10.40 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.78.
What is the quality score of PAGP?
Plains GP Holdings LP has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.40 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.69, optimistic scenario $15.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Plains GP Holdings LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.40, about 60% lower versus a price of $25.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.69, optimistic scenario $15.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
Plains GP Holdings LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $52.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Plains GP Holdings LP pay a dividend?
Plains GP Holdings LP currently shows a dividend yield of 6.33% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Plains GP Holdings LP pays a dividend of $1.63 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2014. Free cash flow covers the dividend 7.08 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Plains GP Holdings LP would have to grow free cash flow by -11.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PAGP use?
Our models discount Plains GP Holdings LP at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Plains GP Holdings LP that is -11.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Plains GP Holdings LP grew +13.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -11.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Plains GP Holdings LP (-11.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 44.82 %: that much free cash flow Plains GP Holdings LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Plains GP Holdings LP it is $10.40 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $25.78. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Plains GP Holdings LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, PAGP trades above its calculated fair value: price $25.78, fair value $10.40, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAGP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.40). For Plains GP Holdings LP the two are $15.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Plains GP Holdings LP worth?
The market values Plains GP Holdings LP at about $6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $25.78; our models calculate a fair value of $10.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAGP?
Our models span a range for Plains GP Holdings LP: cautious scenario $8.69, base $10.40, optimistic $15.77 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $25.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAGP?
Plains GP Holdings LP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.40 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 25.2 (reported for FY2025: 19.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 3.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.7.
What is the PEG ratio of PAGP?
The PEG ratio of Plains GP Holdings LP is 0.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Plains GP Holdings LP (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 7.95 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAGP from its 52-week high?
Plains GP Holdings LP trades at $25.78, about 11% below its 52-week high of $28.87 and 58% above the low of $16.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Plains GP Holdings LP?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Plains GP Holdings LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $25.78, calculated fair value $10.40 (−60%), Quality Score 53/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAGP calculated?
We run Plains GP Holdings LP through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.40 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Plains GP Holdings LP itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $25.78. Our model-based fair value is $10.40, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Plains GP Holdings LP right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($8.69 to $15.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Plains GP Holdings LP
How large is the market capitalisation of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
The market capitalisation of Plains GP Holdings LP is $6.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Plains GP Holdings LP is 0.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
Earnings per share at Plains GP Holdings LP are $0.4400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 58.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
The dividend yield of Plains GP Holdings LP is 6.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
The net margin of Plains GP Holdings LP is 1.1% (last twelve months), excl. one-off gain FY2025 0.5%. How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Plains GP Holdings LP is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Plains GP Holdings LP is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
The operating margin of Plains GP Holdings LP is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
Revenue at Plains GP Holdings LP is growing +66.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)?
Earnings per share at Plains GP Holdings LP are growing +12.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) carry?
The net debt of Plains GP Holdings LP is $11.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026