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Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Paladin Energy Ltd $1.18, price $6.53, upside -81.9%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Paladin Energy Ltd
PALAF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $1.18 · Strongly overvalued (−81.9%)
!Quality 28/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +235.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.40 – $11.98 · fair‑value band $0.8800 – $1.76 · the $6.53 price screens above the $1.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Paladin Energy Ltd, through its subsidiaries, engages in the development and exploration of mineral properties in Australia, Canada, and Namibia. It explores for uranium deposits. The company was formerly known as Paladin Resources Ltd and changed its name to Paladin Energy Ltd in November 2007.
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Paladin Energy Ltd, through its subsidiaries, engages in the development and exploration of mineral properties in Australia, Canada, and Namibia. It explores for uranium deposits. The company was formerly known as Paladin Resources Ltd and changed its name to Paladin Energy Ltd in November 2007. Paladin Energy Ltd was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF) currently trades at $6.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.18, 81.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.8800 (bear) to $1.76 (bull), the price of $6.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Paladin Energy Ltd reported revenue of $178M in FY2025 versus $98.7M in FY2018, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$44.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.2B · P/S ratio 13.0 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1100 · Net margin −25.1% · Return on equity −3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.6% · Operating margin −0.6% · Revenue (TTM) $248M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at −82%, PALAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.8800
Fair Value $1.18
Bull $1.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
$0.8900
$1.20
$1.78
54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.8900
$1.20
$1.78
54
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
28/100
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Profitability
1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
44
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+235.6%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.7%
’11
’12
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’21
’22
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−124.7% (2019) → −22.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
PALAF screens overvalued: fair value 82% below the price. Compare with Cameco Corporation →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Uranium · 22 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Uranium median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Uranium stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameco Corporation CCJ | $87.04 | $10.11 | −88% |
| Centrus Energy Corp LEU | $138.18 | $55.95 | −60% |
| CGN Mining Company 1164 | HK$2.12 | HK$1.38 | −35% |
| Uranium Royalty Corp UROY | $3.97 | $1.62 | −59% |
| Deep Yellow Limited DYL | A$1.17 | A$0.4300 | −63% |
| Boss Energy Limited BOE | A$1.54 | A$0.6000 | −61% |
| Atha Energy Corp SASK | C$1.07 | C$0.4100 | −62% |
| enCore Energy Corp EU | C$1.45 | C$1.12 | −23% |
| Berkeley Energia Limited BKY | A$0.4500 | A$0.1600 | −64% |
| Alligator Energy Limited AGE | A$0.0360 | A$0.0266 | −26% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.18 versus a price of $6.53, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PALAF?
Our model-based fair value for Paladin Energy Ltd is $1.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.53.
What is the quality score of PALAF?
Paladin Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8800, optimistic scenario $1.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paladin Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.18, about −82% upside versus a price of $6.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.8800, optimistic scenario $1.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
Paladin Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $248M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paladin Energy Ltd it is $1.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $6.53. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Paladin Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PALAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.53, fair value $1.18, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PALAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.18). For Paladin Energy Ltd the two are $5.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paladin Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Paladin Energy Ltd at about $3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $6.53; our models calculate a fair value of $1.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PALAF?
Our models span a range for Paladin Energy Ltd: cautious scenario $0.8800, base $1.18, optimistic $1.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $6.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Paladin Energy Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.6%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PALAF from its 52-week high?
Paladin Energy Ltd trades at $6.53, about 37% below its 52-week high of $10.34 and 35% above the low of $4.85 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paladin Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Cameco Corporation, Centrus Energy Corp, CGN Mining Company, Uranium Royalty Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paladin Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $6.53, calculated fair value $1.18 (−82%), Quality Score 28/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PALAF calculated?
We run Paladin Energy Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Paladin Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $6.53. Our model-based fair value is $1.18, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paladin Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.8800 to $1.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Paladin Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
The market capitalisation of Paladin Energy Ltd is $3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Paladin Energy Ltd is 13.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
Earnings per share at Paladin Energy Ltd are $−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
The net margin of Paladin Energy Ltd is −25.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paladin Energy Ltd is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paladin Energy Ltd is −4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
The operating margin of Paladin Energy Ltd is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
Revenue at Paladin Energy Ltd is growing +16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +79.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF)?
Earnings per share at Paladin Energy Ltd are growing +13.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF) generate?
The free cash flow of Paladin Energy Ltd is −$52.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Paladin Energy Ltd (PALAF) carry?
The net debt of Paladin Energy Ltd is $102M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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