Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.01 TRY – 42.34 TRY · fair‑value band 3.65 TRY – 4.63 TRY · the 12.43 TRY price screens above the 4.03 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Papilon Savunma Teknoloji ve Ticaret A.S. manufactures and sells biometric devices and systems in Turkey.
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Papilon Savunma Teknoloji ve Ticaret A.S. manufactures and sells biometric devices and systems in Turkey. It offers fingerprint scanners, palm scanners, access control systems, biometric workstations, facial and iris recognition, mobile devices, and identification systems, as well as platform for virtual reality and private commercial organizations; and construction of value-added holistic systems. The company also provides construction, maintenance, and repair services. It serves government, law enforcement, finance and telco, health, media and marketing, facility and workforce management, travel and transportation, retail and E-services, and agriculture. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Ankara, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) currently trades at 12.43 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.03 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 208.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 4.80 TRY per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the 12.43 TRY price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 0.8400 TRY, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3.65 TRY (bear) to 4.63 TRY (bull), the price of 12.43 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri reported revenue of 138M TRY in FY2025 versus 29.4M TRY in FY2021, a compound +47.1%/yr. Reported net income was −89.3M TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.6B TRY (≈ $52.8M) · P/S ratio 23.8 · EPS (TTM) 0.0100 TRY · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −64.9% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% · Operating margin −925%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −68%, PAPIL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.2200 TRY to 9.31 TRY). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 3.65 TRYFair Value 4.03 TRYBull 4.63 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0071 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−55.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.8%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−12.9% (2020) → −1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets−5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−92% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.10× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.49× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAPIL
Frequently asked questions
Is Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.03 TRY versus a price of 12.43 TRY, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PAPIL?
Our model-based fair value for Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 4.03 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 12.43 TRY.
What is the quality score of PAPIL?
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.03 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.65 TRY, optimistic scenario 4.63 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.03 TRY, about −68% upside versus a price of 12.43 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.65 TRY, optimistic scenario 4.63 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 99.8M TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri pay a dividend?
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri would have to grow free cash flow by +37.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +38.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PAPIL use?
Our models discount Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri that is +37.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri grew +38.8 % a year. The price currently implies +37.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (+37.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.60 %: that much free cash flow Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri it is 4.03 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 12.43 TRY. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, PAPIL trades above its calculated fair value: price 12.43 TRY, fair value 4.03 TRY, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAPIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (12.43 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.03 TRY). For Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri the two are 8.40 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri worth?
The market values Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri at about 2.6B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 12.43 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 4.03 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAPIL?
Our models span a range for Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri: cautious scenario 3.65 TRY, base 4.03 TRY, optimistic 4.63 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 12.43 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 0.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAPIL from its 52-week high?
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri trades at 12.43 TRY, about 57% below its 52-week high of 28.88 TRY and 11% above the low of 11.21 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.03 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 12.43 TRY, calculated fair value 4.03 TRY (−68%), Quality Score 35/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAPIL calculated?
We run Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4.03 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The closing price on Sep 14, 2026 was 12.43 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 4.03 TRY, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4.63 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri
How large is the market capitalisation of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The market capitalisation of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 2.6B TRY (≈ $52.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 23.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Earnings per share at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri are 0.0100 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The dividend yield of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 0.1% (payout 154%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The net margin of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is −64.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The operating margin of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is −925% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Revenue at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is growing −91.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +47.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Earnings per share at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri are growing −22.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) carry?
The net debt of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 115M TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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