Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri stock TRY 3.73, price TRY 5.35, upside -30.3%, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.01 TRY – 42.34 TRY · fair‑value band 2.89 TRY – 4.77 TRY · the 5.35 TRY price screens above the 3.73 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Papilon Savunma Teknoloji ve Ticaret A.S. manufactures and sells biometric devices and systems in Turkey.
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It offers fingerprint scanners, palm scanners, access control systems, biometric workstations, facial and iris recognition, mobile devices, and identification systems, as well as platform for virtual reality and private commercial organizations; and construction of value-added holistic systems.
The company also provides construction, maintenance, and repair services. It serves government, law enforcement, finance and telco, health, media and marketing, facility and workforce management, travel and transportation, retail and E-services, and agriculture.
The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Ankara, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) currently trades at 5.35 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.73 TRY, 30.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 3.73 TRY per share, and 2 of the 10 models we run sit above the 5.35 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.34 TRY, and 8 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.89 TRY (bear) to 4.77 TRY (bull), the price of 5.35 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2019: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2019.
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri reported revenue of 138M TRY in FY2025 versus 29.4M TRY in FY2021, a compound +47.1%/yr. Reported net income was −89.3M TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B TRY (≈ $22.1M) Micro · P/S ratio 19.8 · EPS (TTM) −1.33 TRY · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin −64.9% · Return on equity −64.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% · Operating margin −517%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −30%, PAPIL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear2.89 TRYFair Value 3.73 TRYBull4.77 TRY
Price 5.35 TRY · Upside -30.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2019: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2019.
Revenue growth 1 year
−55.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−12.9% (2020) → −1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.9% a year for the price.
Compare Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 258 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−30.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−12.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−64.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−85.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.23× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)19.81× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow16.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 45
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAPIL
Frequently asked questions
Is Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.73 TRY versus a price of 5.35 TRY, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PAPIL?
Our model-based fair value for Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 3.73 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 5.35 TRY.
What is the quality score of PAPIL?
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.73 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.89 TRY, optimistic scenario 4.77 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.73 TRY, about −30% upside versus a price of 5.35 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.89 TRY, optimistic scenario 4.77 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 55.7M TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
Does Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri pay a dividend?
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri currently shows a dividend yield of 0.27% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri would have to grow free cash flow by +14.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +38.8 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PAPIL use?
Our models discount Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri that is +14.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri grew +38.8 % a year. The price currently implies +14.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (+14.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.05 %: that much free cash flow Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri it is 3.73 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 5.35 TRY. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, PAPIL trades above its calculated fair value: price 5.35 TRY, fair value 3.73 TRY, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAPIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (5.35 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.73 TRY). For Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri the two are 1.62 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri worth?
The market values Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri at about 1.1B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 5.35 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 3.73 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAPIL?
Our models span a range for Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri: cautious scenario 2.89 TRY, base 3.73 TRY, optimistic 4.77 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 5.35 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity −64.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAPIL from its 52-week high?
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri trades at 5.35 TRY, about 74% below its 52-week high of 20.48 TRY and 2% above the low of 5.25 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.73 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 5.35 TRY, calculated fair value 3.73 TRY (−30%), Quality Score 30/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAPIL calculated?
We run Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3.73 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 5.35 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 3.73 TRY, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4.77 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri
How large is the market capitalisation of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The market capitalisation of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 1.1B TRY (≈ $22.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 19.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Earnings per share at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri are −1.33 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The dividend yield of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The net margin of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is −64.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is −64.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
The operating margin of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is −517% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Revenue at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is growing −85.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +47.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL)?
Earnings per share at Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri are growing −22.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri (PAPIL) carry?
The net debt of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Sistemleri is 115M TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 29, 2026