Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Par Pacific Holdings Inc stock $59.60, price $68.06, that is 12.4% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.82 – $89.88 · fair‑value band $30.44 – $81.51 · the $68.06 price screens above the $59.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., an energy company, provides renewable and conventional fuels in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics.
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The Refining segment owns and operates refineries that convert crude oil into gasoline, distillate, asphalt, and other products.
The Retail segment operates convenience stores and fuel retail outlets that sell gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise, such as soft drinks, prepared food, and other sundries under the Hele, 76, and nomnom brands, as well as unattended cardlock stations.
The Logistics segment owns and operates terminals, pipelines, trucking operations, marine vessels, storage facilities, loading and truck racks, and rail facilities for the movement of ethanol, petroleum, and refined products; and a jet fuel storage facility and pipeline that serves Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota.
The company also holds interest in crude storage tanks and a crude oil pipeline that provides access to crude oil from power river basin; and refined products pipeline.
In addition, it owns and operates a single point mooring, a marine terminal, a unit train-capable rail loading terminal, manifest rail siding, a truck rack, and a proprietary jet fuel pipeline that serves Joint Base Lewis McChord.
The company was formerly known as Par Petroleum Corporation and changed its name to Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. in October 2015. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) currently trades at $68.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.60, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $195.80 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $68.06 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.39, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $30.44 (bear) to $81.51 (bull), the price of $68.06 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Par Pacific Holdings Inc reported revenue of $7.5B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $369M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.4B Mid · P/E ratio 4.0 · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) $17.13 · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 53.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 21.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −12%, PARR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$30.44Fair Value $59.60Bull$81.51
Price $68.06 · Downside -12.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($14.64 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$100.37$171.60$379.2775
EPV$66.92$79.84$91.0774
Growth DCF$94.58$190.80$374.2274
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$100.37$171.60$379.2775
Owner Earnings$99.53$239.39$527.6470
5Y Revenue Exit$93.37$184.70$364.9568
5Y EBITDA Exit$62.66$119.00$222.0971
5Y P/E Exit$74.00$160.82$272.3168
10Y Revenue Exit$91.15$207.37$334.8664
10Y EBITDA Exit$73.61$148.57$281.6165
10Y P/E Exit$81.56$170.28$321.6960
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$50.14$349.65$490.6863
Lynch FV$108.18$154.54$200.9061
PEG = 1.0$108.18$154.54$200.9057
EPV$66.92$79.84$91.0774
Multiples
P/E Multiple$77.42$103.22$129.0363
P/S Multiple$94.01$125.34$156.6858
P/B Multiple$37.05$49.39$61.7455
EV/EBIT$56.17$83.05$109.9465
EV/EBITDA$36.87$57.32$77.7866
EV/Revenue$73.38$115.32$157.2653
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$13.72$18.39$27.4454
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$94.58$190.80$374.2274
Rev-Margin DCF$93.37$200.79$363.4169
Economic Profit
Residual Income$47.36$65.81$132.2766
ROIC Compounder$86.96$134.45$186.3871
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$125.40$179.14$232.8867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $16.4M and none bought.
SaleTerrill PitkinSVP, Planning & Commercial2× since Mar 5, 2026: 15,639 shares, avg. $59.34$927,993Sep 11, 2026
SaleTimothy ClosseyDirector4× since Mar 2, 2026: 34,728 shares, avg. $73.36$2.5MSep 10, 2026
SaleWilliam MonteleonePresident and CEO, Director3× since Nov 21, 2025: 275,033 shares, avg. $56.90$15.7MSep 3, 2026
SaleWilliam PateDirector89,500 shares at $81.11$7.3MAug 18, 2026
SaleIvan Daniel GuerraChief Accounting Officer2× since Feb 27, 2026: 6,633 shares, avg. $55.42$367,575Aug 17, 2026
SaleDanielle MattiussiOfficer3,278 shares at $67.29$220,577Aug 7, 2026
SaleRichard CreamerEVP - Refining and Logistics2× since Feb 27, 2026: 28,639 shares, avg. $55.03$1.6MAug 6, 2026
SaleShawn David FloresOfficer2× since Feb 27, 2026: 15,357 shares, avg. $48.02$737,427Mar 16, 2026
SaleJeffrey Ryan HollisOfficer15,350 shares at $41.62$638,867Feb 27, 2026
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.7% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+58.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+58.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → 7%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.1% a year for the price and −5.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Recent leadership expertise from major refiners offers potential reliability gains at Hawaii operations, yet the core weakness remains direct exposure of margins to Brent-linked crude pricing and local shocks.
Main risk: Dependence on Brent-linked crude pricing ties margins directly to global benchmarks and leaves Hawaii operations vulnerable to sudden local price shocks.
Par Pacific recently appointed a veteran refining leader from Valero and Phillips 66 to head refining and logistics. The move could improve reliability at its Hawaii operations, but that refinery depends on Brent-linked crude pricing which ties its margins directly to global benchmarks and local shocks. Will the added expertise deliver steadier capture rates than the pricing structure allows, or will volatility persist?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)53.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)56.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)4.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.23× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.39× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.4× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Par Pacific Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PARR
Frequently asked questions
Is Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $59.60 versus a price of $68.06, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PARR?
Our model-based fair value for Par Pacific Holdings Inc is $59.60 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $68.06.
What is the quality score of PARR?
Par Pacific Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $59.60 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.44, optimistic scenario $81.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Par Pacific Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $59.60, about 12% lower versus a price of $68.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $30.44, optimistic scenario $81.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
Par Pacific Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Par Pacific Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Par Pacific Holdings Inc does not currently pay a dividend.
What growth is priced into Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Par Pacific Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.0 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PARR use?
Our models discount Par Pacific Holdings Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Par Pacific Holdings Inc that is +1.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Par Pacific Holdings Inc grew +19.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +1.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Par Pacific Holdings Inc (+1.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.81 %: that much free cash flow Par Pacific Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Par Pacific Holdings Inc it is $59.60 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $68.06. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Par Pacific Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, PARR trades above its calculated fair value: price $68.06, fair value $59.60, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PARR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($68.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($59.60). For Par Pacific Holdings Inc the two are $8.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Par Pacific Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Par Pacific Holdings Inc at about $3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $68.06; our models calculate a fair value of $59.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PARR?
Our models span a range for Par Pacific Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $30.44, base $59.60, optimistic $81.51 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $68.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PARR?
Par Pacific Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $59.60 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.5. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Par Pacific Holdings Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 53.5%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PARR from its 52-week high?
Par Pacific Holdings Inc trades at $68.06, about 24% below its 52-week high of $89.88 and 95% above the low of $34.83 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $59.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Par Pacific Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Par Pacific Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $68.06, calculated fair value $59.60 (−12%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PARR calculated?
We run Par Pacific Holdings Inc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $59.60 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Par Pacific Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $68.06. Our model-based fair value is $59.60, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Par Pacific Holdings Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($30.44 to $81.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Par Pacific Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
The market capitalisation of Par Pacific Holdings Inc is $3.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Par Pacific Holdings Inc is 0.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
Earnings per share at Par Pacific Holdings Inc are $17.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
The net margin of Par Pacific Holdings Inc is 9.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Par Pacific Holdings Inc is 53.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Par Pacific Holdings Inc is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
The operating margin of Par Pacific Holdings Inc is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
Revenue at Par Pacific Holdings Inc is growing +56.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)?
Earnings per share at Par Pacific Holdings Inc are growing +699% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) carry?
The net debt of Par Pacific Holdings Inc is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026