Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $3.3B
Par Pacific Holdings
PARR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $103.13 to $36.10 (−65.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −3.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 46% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($25.66 to $111.91). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.82 – $86.03 · fair‑value band $25.66 – $111.91 · the $66.29 price screens above the $36.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) currently trades at $66.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.10, implying the stock looks roughly 45.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Par Pacific Holdings generated revenue of $7.5B at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.3%. Net debt stands at $1.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $25.66 (bear case) to $111.91 (bull case); at $66.29, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 216% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -46%, PARR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($302.18) versus Asset-Based ($20.20). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., an energy company, provides renewable and conventional fuels in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates refineries that convert crude oil into gasoline, distillate, asphalt, and other products.
Full company description
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., an energy company, provides renewable and conventional fuels in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates refineries that convert crude oil into gasoline, distillate, asphalt, and other products. The Retail segment operates convenience stores and fuel retail outlets that sell gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise, such as soft drinks, prepared food, and other sundries under the Hele, 76, and nomnom brands, as well as unattended cardlock stations. The Logistics segment owns and operates terminals, pipelines, trucking operations, marine vessels, storage facilities, loading and truck racks, and rail facilities for the movement of ethanol, petroleum, and refined products; and a jet fuel storage facility and pipeline that serves Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota. The company also holds interest in crude storage tanks and a crude oil pipeline that provides access to crude oil from power river basin; and refined products pipeline. In addition, it owns and operates a single point mooring, a marine terminal, a unit train-capable rail loading terminal, manifest rail siding, a truck rack, and a proprietary jet fuel pipeline that serves Joint Base Lewis McChord. The company was formerly known as Par Petroleum Corporation and changed its name to Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. in October 2015. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Par Pacific Holdings reported revenue of $7.5B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $369M in FY2025.
PARR screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zacks.com featured highlights POSCO Holdings, Par Pacific Holdings, Sally Beauty, Brookfield and HF Sinclair
- PARR Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Refining Margin Strength
- Par Petroleum (PARR) Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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