Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pure Cycle Corporation stock $10.62, price $10.88, that is 2.4% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.81 – $16.09 · fair‑value band $5.80 – $13.20 · the $10.88 price screens above the $10.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Pure Cycle Corporation provides water and wastewater services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Water and Wastewater Resource Development, Land Development, and Single-Family Rental.
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The company engages in the wholesale water production, storage, treatment, and distribution systems; wastewater collection and treatment systems; development of land into master planned communities; and construction and leasing of single-family homes.
It serves domestic, commercial, and industrial customers. Pure Cycle Corporation was incorporated in 1976 and is headquartered in Watkins, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) currently trades at $10.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.62, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $23.80 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the $10.88 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $3.23, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.80 (bear) to $13.20 (bull), the price of $10.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2021: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2021.
Pure Cycle Corporation reported revenue of $26.1M in FY2025 versus $17.1M in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $13.1M in FY2025, compounding −10.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $263M Micro · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 7.80 · EPS (TTM) $0.6100 · Net margin 43.7% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 25.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −2%, PCYO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.80Fair Value $10.62Bull$13.20
Price $10.88 · Downside -2.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SalePlaisance Capital LLC10% owner68,778 shares at $11.01$757,246Nov 17, 2025
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2021: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2021.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+10.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 29%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.1% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−2.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.2% · Above median
Return on assets8.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)43.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)25.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)60.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
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Is Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.62 versus a price of $10.88, about 2% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PCYO?
Our model-based fair value for Pure Cycle Corporation is $10.62 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.88.
What is the quality score of PCYO?
Pure Cycle Corporation has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.62 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.80, optimistic scenario $13.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pure Cycle Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.62, about 2% lower versus a price of $10.88 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.80, optimistic scenario $13.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
Pure Cycle Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.7M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pure Cycle Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +43.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.2 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PCYO use?
Our models discount Pure Cycle Corporation at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pure Cycle Corporation that is +43.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pure Cycle Corporation grew +0.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +43.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pure Cycle Corporation (+43.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.40 %: that much free cash flow Pure Cycle Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pure Cycle Corporation it is $10.62 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $10.88. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Pure Cycle Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, PCYO trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.88, fair value $10.62, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PCYO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.62). For Pure Cycle Corporation the two are $0.2600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pure Cycle Corporation worth?
The market values Pure Cycle Corporation at about $263M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $10.88; our models calculate a fair value of $10.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PCYO?
Our models span a range for Pure Cycle Corporation: cautious scenario $5.80, base $10.62, optimistic $13.20 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $10.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PCYO?
Pure Cycle Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.62 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2020 ex one-offs: 28.0. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 7.8, EV/EBITDA 16.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pure Cycle Corporation (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PCYO from its 52-week high?
Pure Cycle Corporation trades at $10.88, about 9% below its 52-week high of $11.94 and 10% above the low of $9.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pure Cycle Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, American States Water Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pure Cycle Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $10.88, calculated fair value $10.62 (−2%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PCYO calculated?
We run Pure Cycle Corporation through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Pure Cycle Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $10.88. Our model-based fair value is $10.62, about 2% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pure Cycle Corporation right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($5.80 to $13.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Pure Cycle Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
The market capitalisation of Pure Cycle Corporation is $263M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pure Cycle Corporation is 7.80 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
Earnings per share at Pure Cycle Corporation are $0.6100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
The net margin of Pure Cycle Corporation is 43.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pure Cycle Corporation is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pure Cycle Corporation is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
The operating margin of Pure Cycle Corporation is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
Revenue at Pure Cycle Corporation is growing +60.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)?
Earnings per share at Pure Cycle Corporation are growing +33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) hold?
Pure Cycle Corporation holds more cash than debt, $15.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026