Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $267M
Pure Cycle Corporation
PCYO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +1.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.81 – $16.09 · fair‑value band $4.21 – $6.59 · the $10.83 price screens above the $5.40 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) currently trades at $10.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.40, implying the stock looks roughly 50.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Pure Cycle Corporation generated revenue of $30.6M at a net margin of 45.8%. Revenue grew 29.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $15.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.21 (bear case) to $6.59 (bull case); at $10.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -50%, PCYO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($23.79) versus Economic Profit ($1.92). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Pure Cycle Corporation provides water and wastewater services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Water and Wastewater Resource Development, Land Development, and Single-Family Rental.
Full company description
Pure Cycle Corporation provides water and wastewater services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Water and Wastewater Resource Development, Land Development, and Single-Family Rental. The company engages in the wholesale water production, storage, treatment, and distribution systems; wastewater collection and treatment systems; development of land into master planned communities; and construction and leasing of single-family homes. It serves domestic, commercial, and industrial customers. Pure Cycle Corporation was incorporated in 1976 and is headquartered in Watkins, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Pure Cycle Corporation reported revenue of $26.1M in FY2025 versus $17.1M in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $13.1M in FY2025, compounding −10.1%/yr from FY2021.
PCYO screens 50% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $134.33 | $65.80 | -51% |
| SBSP3 SBSP3 | R$29.22 | R$31.23 | +7% |
| SBS SBS | $5.79 | $5.21 | -10% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $38.59 | $21.81 | -43% |
| CSMG3 CSMG3 | R$66.10 | R$60.17 | -9% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.42 | ¥33.29 | +13% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $85.01 | $48.02 | -44% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥6.97 | ¥10.74 | +54% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $49.73 | $33.56 | -33% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.12 | ¥2.77 | -33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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