PD.TO (PD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what PD.TO is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$37.23 – C$140.91 · fair‑value band C$53.21 – C$65.68 · the C$124.69 price screens above the C$65.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Precision Drilling Corporation, a drilling company, provides onshore drilling services to exploration and production companies in the oil and natural gas and geothermal industries in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through Contract Drilling Services; and Completion and Production Services segments.
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Precision Drilling Corporation, a drilling company, provides onshore drilling services to exploration and production companies in the oil and natural gas and geothermal industries in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through Contract Drilling Services; and Completion and Production Services segments. The Contract Drilling Services segment offers onshore well drilling services to exploration and production companies in the oil, natural gas, and geothermal industry. This segment also offers services, including turnkey drilling contracts; and procurement and distribution of oilfield supplies, as well as manufacture, sale, and repair of drilling and service rig equipment. In addition, the company offers automation solutions for drilling operations comprising AlphaAutomation, AlphaTM, AlphaApps, AlphaAnalytics, and AlphaARMS; and EverGreen suite of environmental solutions. The Completion and Production Services segment provide service rigs for well completion, workover, abandonment, maintenance, and re-entry preparation services; equipment rentals; and camp and catering services to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies. This segment also operates well completion and workover services. Precision Drilling Corporation was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
PD.TO (PD) currently trades at C$124.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$65.68, implying the stock looks roughly 89.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$99.19 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$124.69 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$37.65, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$53.21 (bear) to C$65.68 (bull), the price of C$124.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
PD.TO reported revenue of C$1.8B in FY2025 versus C$987M in FY2021, a compound +16.9%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$1.7B (≈ $1.2B) · P/S ratio 0.81 · EPS (TTM) C$−1.04 · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity −0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Operating margin 7.5% · Revenue (TTM) C$1.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −47%, PD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$53.21Fair Value C$65.68Bull C$65.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+33.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21% vs −24%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PD.TO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PD.TO
Frequently asked questions
Is PD.TO (PD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$65.68 versus a price of C$124.69, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PD?
Our model-based fair value for PD.TO is C$65.68 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$124.69.
What is the quality score of PD?
PD.TO has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PD.TO (PD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$65.68 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$53.21, optimistic scenario C$65.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PD.TO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$65.68, about −47% upside versus a price of C$124.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$53.21, optimistic scenario C$65.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PD.TO (PD)?
PD.TO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into PD.TO (PD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PD.TO would have to grow free cash flow by +9.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.5 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PD use?
Our models discount PD.TO at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PD.TO that is +9.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PD.TO (PD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PD.TO grew +14.5 % a year. The price currently implies +9.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PD.TO (PD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PD.TO (+9.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PD.TO (PD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.94 %: that much free cash flow PD.TO produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PD.TO (PD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PD.TO it is C$65.68 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of C$124.69. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PD.TO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, PD trades above its calculated fair value: price C$124.69, fair value C$65.68, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$124.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$65.68). For PD.TO the two are C$59.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PD.TO worth?
The market values PD.TO at about C$1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is C$124.69; our models calculate a fair value of C$65.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PD?
Our models span a range for PD.TO: cautious scenario C$53.21, base C$65.68, optimistic C$65.68 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price C$124.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is PD from its 52-week high?
PD.TO trades at C$124.69, about 13% below its 52-week high of C$143.81 and 98% above the low of C$63.01 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$65.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PD.TO?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Noble Corporation, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, Transocean Ltd, Valaris Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PD.TO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price C$124.69, calculated fair value C$65.68 (−47%), Quality Score 46/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PD calculated?
We run PD.TO through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$65.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. PD.TO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with PD.TO right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$65.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of PD.TO
How large is the market capitalisation of PD.TO (PD)?
The market capitalisation of PD.TO is C$1.7B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PD.TO (PD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PD.TO is 0.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PD.TO (PD)?
Earnings per share at PD.TO are C$−1.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PD.TO (PD)?
The net margin of PD.TO is 0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PD.TO (PD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PD.TO is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PD.TO (PD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PD.TO is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PD.TO (PD)?
The operating margin of PD.TO is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PD.TO (PD)?
Revenue at PD.TO is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PD.TO (PD)?
Earnings per share at PD.TO are growing −39.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PD.TO (PD) carry?
The net debt of PD.TO is C$706M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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