Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Padtec Holding S.A. BRL 4.43, price BRL 1.64, upside +170.1%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$0.9600 – R$8.16 · fair‑value band R$3.10 – R$5.76 · the R$1.64 price screens below the R$4.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Padtec Holding S.A. provides equipment/DWDM and services, and software and platforms. It offers network maintenance and management; characterization; SPaaS; fiber monitoring; and training services. The company also provides transceivers, lightpads, switches and routers, standalone, and DCI generation products, as well as digital solutions.
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Padtec Holding S.A. provides equipment/DWDM and services, and software and platforms. It offers network maintenance and management; characterization; SPaaS; fiber monitoring; and training services. The company also provides transceivers, lightpads, switches and routers, standalone, and DCI generation products, as well as digital solutions. It offers its products and services to regional operators, internet and telecommunications providers, datacenters, network operators, IT and multimedia, government, utilities and integrators, finance, and research networks. The company was formerly known as Ideiasnet S.A. Padtec Holding S.A. was founded in 2001 and is based in Campinas, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3) currently trades at R$1.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$4.43, implying the stock looks roughly 63.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$11.03 per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the R$1.64 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$1.14, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R$3.10 (bear) to R$5.76 (bull), the price of R$1.64 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Padtec Holding S.A. reported revenue of R$292M in FY2025 versus R$344M in FY2021, a compound −4.0%/yr. Reported net income was R$7.0M in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$161M (≈ $31.3M) · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) R$0.1900 · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% · Operating margin 17.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at 170%, PDTC3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$3.10Fair Value R$4.43Bull R$5.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.1395 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −8.6% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17% vs −35%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 27.7%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 316 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+170% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
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Is Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$4.43 versus a price of R$1.64, about +170% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PDTC3?
Our model-based fair value for Padtec Holding S.A. is R$4.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$1.64.
What is the quality score of PDTC3?
Padtec Holding S.A. has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$4.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$3.10, optimistic scenario R$5.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Padtec Holding S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$4.43, about +170% upside versus a price of R$1.64 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$3.10, optimistic scenario R$5.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
Padtec Holding S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$289M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Padtec Holding S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PDTC3 use?
Our models discount Padtec Holding S.A. at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Padtec Holding S.A. that is +10.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Padtec Holding S.A. grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +10.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Padtec Holding S.A. (+10.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.09 %: that much free cash flow Padtec Holding S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Padtec Holding S.A. it is R$4.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$1.64. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Padtec Holding S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PDTC3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$1.64, fair value R$4.43, a gap of about +170% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PDTC3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$1.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$4.43). For Padtec Holding S.A. the two are R$2.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Padtec Holding S.A. worth?
The market values Padtec Holding S.A. at about R$161M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$1.64; our models calculate a fair value of R$4.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PDTC3?
Our models span a range for Padtec Holding S.A.: cautious scenario R$3.10, base R$4.43, optimistic R$5.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$1.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PDTC3?
Padtec Holding S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$4.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Padtec Holding S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 2.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PDTC3 from its 52-week high?
Padtec Holding S.A. trades at R$1.64, about 21% below its 52-week high of R$2.08 and 69% above the low of R$0.9700 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$4.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Padtec Holding S.A.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Padtec Holding S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$1.64, calculated fair value R$4.43 (+170%), Quality Score 54/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PDTC3 calculated?
We run Padtec Holding S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$4.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Padtec Holding S.A. currently trades 170 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R$1.64. Our model-based fair value is R$4.43, about +170% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Padtec Holding S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$3.10). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R$3.10 to R$5.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Padtec Holding S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
The market capitalisation of Padtec Holding S.A. is R$161M (≈ $31.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Padtec Holding S.A. is 0.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
Earnings per share at Padtec Holding S.A. are R$0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
The net margin of Padtec Holding S.A. is 2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Padtec Holding S.A. is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Padtec Holding S.A. is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
The operating margin of Padtec Holding S.A. is 17.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
Revenue at Padtec Holding S.A. is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3)?
Earnings per share at Padtec Holding S.A. are growing +26.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Padtec Holding S.A. (PDTC3) carry?
The net debt of Padtec Holding S.A. is R$222M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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