Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Pennon Group PLC $7.67, price $12.08, upside -36.5%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.77 – $22.39 · fair‑value band $6.52 – $11.16 · the $12.08 price screens above the $7.67 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Pennon Group Plc provides water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. The company operates through two segments, Water and Non-Household Retail. It is also involved in renewable energy generation activities, as well as provides water retail services. Pennon Group Plc was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Exeter, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Pennon Group PLC ADR (PEGRY) currently trades at $12.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.67, 36.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $11.05 per share, and 2 of the 14 models we run sit above the $12.08 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.62, and 12 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.52 (bear) to $11.16 (bull), the price of $12.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Pennon Group PLC ADR reported revenue of £1.3B in FY2026 versus £792M in FY2022, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was £93.0M in FY2026, compounding +56.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.8B · P/E ratio 23.2 · P/S ratio 1.65 · EPS (TTM) $0.5200 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −37%, PEGRY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.52Fair Value $7.67Bull $11.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1157 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.9% vs −10.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 25%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−49.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.5% · Below median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)7.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)25.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)23.2× · Pricier than median
P/B1.49× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.63× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA10.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG8.16× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)26· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 60
DIVIDEND (yield)49· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pennon Group PLC ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PEGRY
Frequently asked questions
Is Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.67 versus a price of $12.08, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PEGRY?
Our model-based fair value for Pennon Group PLC ADR is $7.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.08.
What is the quality score of PEGRY?
Pennon Group PLC ADR has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.52, optimistic scenario $11.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pennon Group PLC ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.67, about −37% upside versus a price of $12.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.52, optimistic scenario $11.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
Pennon Group PLC ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Pennon Group PLC ADR pay a dividend?
Pennon Group PLC ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pennon Group PLC ADR it is $7.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.08. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pennon Group PLC ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PEGRY trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.08, fair value $7.67, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PEGRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.67). For Pennon Group PLC ADR the two are $4.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pennon Group PLC ADR worth?
The market values Pennon Group PLC ADR at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.08; our models calculate a fair value of $7.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PEGRY?
Our models span a range for Pennon Group PLC ADR: cautious scenario $6.52, base $7.67, optimistic $11.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PEGRY?
Pennon Group PLC ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 8.2, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 10.7.
What is the PEG ratio of PEGRY?
The PEG ratio of Pennon Group PLC ADR is 8.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pennon Group PLC ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 2.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PEGRY from its 52-week high?
Pennon Group PLC ADR trades at $12.08, about 26% below its 52-week high of $16.31 and 3% above the low of $11.70 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pennon Group PLC ADR?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, Grandblue Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pennon Group PLC ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.08, calculated fair value $7.67 (−37%), Quality Score 30/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PEGRY calculated?
We run Pennon Group PLC ADR through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Pennon Group PLC ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.08. Our model-based fair value is $7.67, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pennon Group PLC ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Pennon Group PLC ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
The market capitalisation of Pennon Group PLC ADR is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pennon Group PLC ADR is 1.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
Earnings per share at Pennon Group PLC ADR are $0.5200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
The dividend yield of Pennon Group PLC ADR is 2.4% (payout 56.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
The net margin of Pennon Group PLC ADR is 7.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pennon Group PLC ADR is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pennon Group PLC ADR is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
The operating margin of Pennon Group PLC ADR is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
Revenue at Pennon Group PLC ADR is growing +21.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY)?
Earnings per share at Pennon Group PLC ADR are growing −92.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY) generate?
The free cash flow of Pennon Group PLC ADR is −£257M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Pennon Group PLC (PEGRY) carry?
The net debt of Pennon Group PLC ADR is £4.5B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026