PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of PTT Exploration & Production $10.56, price $9.22, upside +14.5%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.38 – $35.83 · fair‑value band $6.76 – $15.02 · the $9.22 price screens below the $10.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum in Thailand, rest of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Exploration and Production; and Other Businesses and Corporate segments.
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PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum in Thailand, rest of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Exploration and Production; and Other Businesses and Corporate segments. The company is also involved in the gas pipeline transportation and solar power businesses, as well as renewable energy and related activities. In addition, it provides petroleum-related technology, human resource support, and technology and innovation services. The company was founded in 1985 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of PTT Public Company Limited.
Stock analysis
PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY) currently trades at $9.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.56, implying the stock looks roughly 12.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $12.62 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $9.22 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.68, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.76 (bear) to $15.02 (bull), the price of $9.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
PTT Exploration & Production reported revenue of 270B THB in FY2025 versus 219B THB in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was 60.3B THB in FY2025, compounding +11.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.3B · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) $0.8600 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 22.3% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 104% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 15%, PEXNY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.76Fair Value $10.56Bull $15.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4265 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 13%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 35%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in THB, Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.0% a year for the price and +1.7% for the forecasts.
Compare PTT Exploration & Production with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+15% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)19% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)32% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PTT Exploration & Production Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PEXNY
Frequently asked questions
Is PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.56 versus a price of $9.22, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PEXNY?
Our model-based fair value for PTT Exploration & Production is $10.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.22.
What is the quality score of PEXNY?
PTT Exploration & Production has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.76, optimistic scenario $15.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PTT Exploration & Production stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.56, about +15% upside versus a price of $9.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.76, optimistic scenario $15.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does PTT Exploration & Production pay a dividend?
PTT Exploration & Production currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PTT Exploration & Production would have to grow free cash flow by +9.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PEXNY use?
Our models discount PTT Exploration & Production at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PTT Exploration & Production that is +9.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PTT Exploration & Production grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies +9.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PTT Exploration & Production (+9.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.82 %: that much free cash flow PTT Exploration & Production produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PTT Exploration & Production it is $10.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.22. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PTT Exploration & Production stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PEXNY trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.22, fair value $10.56, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PEXNY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.56). For PTT Exploration & Production the two are $1.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PTT Exploration & Production worth?
The market values PTT Exploration & Production at about $18.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.22; our models calculate a fair value of $10.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PEXNY?
Our models span a range for PTT Exploration & Production: cautious scenario $6.76, base $10.56, optimistic $15.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PEXNY?
PTT Exploration & Production trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 25.1, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
What is the PEG ratio of PEXNY?
The PEG ratio of PTT Exploration & Production is 25.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
Balance-sheet figures for PTT Exploration & Production (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.8%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PEXNY from its 52-week high?
PTT Exploration & Production trades at $9.22, about 1% below its 52-week high of $9.30 and 104% above the low of $4.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PTT Exploration & Production?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PTT Exploration & Production stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.22, calculated fair value $10.56 (+15%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PEXNY calculated?
We run PTT Exploration & Production through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. PTT Exploration & Production currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.22. Our model-based fair value is $10.56, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PTT Exploration & Production right now?
A fairly wide model range ($6.76 to $15.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY) come from?
Earnings per share at PTT Exploration & Production grew +19.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate +3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PTT Exploration & Production
How large is the market capitalisation of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
The market capitalisation of PTT Exploration & Production is $18.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PTT Exploration & Production is 2.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
Earnings per share at PTT Exploration & Production are $0.8600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
The dividend yield of PTT Exploration & Production is 3.0% (payout 32.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
The net margin of PTT Exploration & Production is 22.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PTT Exploration & Production is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PTT Exploration & Production is 13.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
The operating margin of PTT Exploration & Production is 32.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
Revenue at PTT Exploration & Production is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY)?
Earnings per share at PTT Exploration & Production are growing −22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PTT Exploration & Production (PEXNY) carry?
The net debt of PTT Exploration & Production is 53.7B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026