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PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, (PGEO) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · ID · Market cap 42.5T IDR

PP PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, PGEO · JK
Price1,110 IDR
Fair Value1,082 IDR
Upside-2.5%
Quality51/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 33.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 67/100
Evidence: High Range 721.44 IDR – 1,263 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from 1,077 IDR to 1,082 IDR (+0.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +18.1% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from 721.44 IDR (bear) to 1,263 IDR (bull), base 1,082 IDR. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 51/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

1,741 IDR 534.04 IDR Fair Value 1,082 IDR Feb 2023 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

41‑month range 534.04 IDR – 1,741 IDR · fair‑value band 721.44 IDR – 1,263 IDR · the 1,110 IDR price screens above the 1,082 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, (PGEO) currently trades at 1,110 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,082 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 2.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, generated revenue of 448M IDR at a net margin of 33.6%. Revenue grew 14.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at 33.9M IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 721.44 IDR (bear case) to 1,263 IDR (bull case); at 1,110 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -3%, PGEO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 901.80 IDR 1,263 IDR 1,984 IDR 80
Residual Income 721.44 IDR 721.44 IDR 901.80 IDR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 541.08 IDR 721.44 IDR 901.80 IDR 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 901.80 IDR 1,263 IDR 1,984 IDR 38
Owner Earnings 901.80 IDR 1,082 IDR 1,804 IDR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 541.08 IDR 721.44 IDR 901.80 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 901.80 IDR 1,443 IDR 1,984 IDR 41
5Y P/E Exit 721.44 IDR 1,082 IDR 1,443 IDR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 721.44 IDR 901.80 IDR 1,082 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 901.80 IDR 1,263 IDR 1,623 IDR 37
10Y P/E Exit 901.80 IDR 1,082 IDR 1,443 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 360.72 IDR 721.44 IDR 901.80 IDR 54
EPV 541.08 IDR 721.44 IDR 721.44 IDR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 541.08 IDR 721.44 IDR 901.80 IDR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 541.08 IDR 721.44 IDR 1,082 IDR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 721.44 IDR 1,082 IDR 1,263 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 360.72 IDR 541.08 IDR 541.08 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 721.44 IDR 1,082 IDR 1,263 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 901.80 IDR 1,263 IDR 1,623 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 1,082 IDR 1,443 IDR 1,804 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 360.72 IDR 541.08 IDR 541.08 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 360.72 IDR 541.08 IDR 901.80 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 901.80 IDR 1,263 IDR 1,984 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 541.08 IDR 721.44 IDR 901.80 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 721.44 IDR 721.44 IDR 901.80 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 541.08 IDR 721.44 IDR 721.44 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 541.08 IDR 721.44 IDR 1,082 IDR 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (1,082 IDR) versus Asset-Based (541.08 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 448M IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.8%
Net margin 33.6%
Return on equity 7.3%
Free cash flow 201M IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 16.1
More key figures
Operating margin 53.3%
EPS (TTM) 63.01 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) +32.5%
Net debt 33.9M IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 26
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 37
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of the geothermal sector from the upstream and/or downstream sides in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Own Operations and Joint Operating Contracts.

Full company description

PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of the geothermal sector from the upstream and/or downstream sides in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Own Operations and Joint Operating Contracts. The Own Operations segment manages geothermal fields, including Sibayak, Kamojang, Lahendong, Ulubelu, Karaha, and Lumut Balai, covering activities such as exploration, development, and production of geothermal steam and electricity. The company also generated electricity. As of December 31, 2025, the company managed 16 working areas (WK), which include 13 geothermal working areas (WKP), and two geothermal permit (IPB) working areas. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Pertamina Power Indonesia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, reported revenue of 427M IDR in FY2025 versus 369M IDR in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was 136M IDR in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
427M IDR
Latest YoY
+5.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+3.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+3.8%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y)
−7.1%
Revenue +3.8%/yr
FY21 369M IDR
FY22 386M IDR
FY23 406M IDR
FY24 407M IDR
FY25 427M IDR
Net income +12.4%/yr
FY21 85.1M IDR
FY22 127M IDR
FY23 164M IDR
FY24 160M IDR
FY25 136M IDR

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PGEO

Peer Group

Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside −3% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 53% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.36× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.08× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 9.50× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 21.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.4× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 30 · sector 15
FUTURE 74 · sector 0
PAST 29 · sector 12
HEALTH 82 · sector 68
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 48

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥27.99 ¥25.13 -10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 149.70 kr 31.40 -79%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.81 ¥5.57 -43%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,537 ₹170.50 -89%
AXIA Energia SA AXIAP $10.74 $9.65 -10%
VERBUND AG OEWA €58.65 €66.19 +13%
BEP BEP $32.33 $73.35 +127%
BEPUN BEPUN C$44.56 C$10.15 -77%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €19.89 €13.90 -30%
China Longyuan Power Group 001289 ¥16.21 ¥8.23 -49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, (PGEO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,082 IDR versus a price of 1,110 IDR, about −3% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PGEO?
Our model-based fair value for PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, is 1,082 IDR (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 1,110 IDR.
What is the quality score of PGEO?
PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, (PGEO)?
PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 448M IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PGEO?
The net profit margin of PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, is about 33.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 33.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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