PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, (PGEO) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · ID · Market cap 42.5T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from 1,077 IDR to 1,082 IDR (+0.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +18.1% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from 721.44 IDR (bear) to 1,263 IDR (bull), base 1,082 IDR. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 51/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
41‑month range 534.04 IDR – 1,741 IDR · fair‑value band 721.44 IDR – 1,263 IDR · the 1,110 IDR price screens above the 1,082 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, (PGEO) currently trades at 1,110 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,082 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 2.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, generated revenue of 448M IDR at a net margin of 33.6%. Revenue grew 14.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at 33.9M IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 721.44 IDR (bear case) to 1,263 IDR (bull case); at 1,110 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -3%, PGEO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (1,082 IDR) versus Asset-Based (541.08 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of the geothermal sector from the upstream and/or downstream sides in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Own Operations and Joint Operating Contracts.
Full company description
PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of the geothermal sector from the upstream and/or downstream sides in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Own Operations and Joint Operating Contracts. The Own Operations segment manages geothermal fields, including Sibayak, Kamojang, Lahendong, Ulubelu, Karaha, and Lumut Balai, covering activities such as exploration, development, and production of geothermal steam and electricity. The company also generated electricity. As of December 31, 2025, the company managed 16 working areas (WK), which include 13 geothermal working areas (WKP), and two geothermal permit (IPB) working areas. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Pertamina Power Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, reported revenue of 427M IDR in FY2025 versus 369M IDR in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was 136M IDR in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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