Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Pertamina Geothermal Energy IDR 931, price IDR 1,090, upside -14.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of the geothermal sector from the upstream and/or downstream sides in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Own Operations and Joint Operating Contracts.
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PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of the geothermal sector from the upstream and/or downstream sides in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Own Operations and Joint Operating Contracts. The Own Operations segment manages geothermal fields, including Sibayak, Kamojang, Lahendong, Ulubelu, Karaha, and Lumut Balai, covering activities such as exploration, development, and production of geothermal steam and electricity. The company also generated electricity. As of December 31, 2025, the company managed 16 working areas (WK), which include 13 geothermal working areas (WKP), and two geothermal permit (IPB) working areas. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Pertamina Power Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) currently trades at 1,090 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 930.86 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 17.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 930.86 IDR per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the 1,090 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 465.43 IDR, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 711.68 IDR (bear) to 1,185 IDR (bull), the price of 1,090 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Pertamina Geothermal Energy reported revenue of $427M in FY2025 versus $369M in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $136M in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 45.8T IDR (≈ $4.6B) · P/E ratio 17.3 · P/S ratio 5.50 · EPS (TTM) 63.01 IDR · Net margin 31.8% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1% · Operating margin 53.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −15%, PGEO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 711.68 IDRFair Value 930.86 IDRBull 1,185 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (46.09 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.1%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 47%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.8% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
Compare Pertamina Geothermal Energy with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−15% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)34% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)53% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.36× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pertamina Geothermal Energy Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PGEO
Frequently asked questions
Is Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 930.86 IDR versus a price of 1,090 IDR, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PGEO?
Our model-based fair value for Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 930.86 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,090 IDR.
What is the quality score of PGEO?
Pertamina Geothermal Energy has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 930.86 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 711.68 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,185 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pertamina Geothermal Energy stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 930.86 IDR, about −15% upside versus a price of 1,090 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 711.68 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,185 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Pertamina Geothermal Energy reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $448M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pertamina Geothermal Energy would have to grow free cash flow by +17.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PGEO use?
Our models discount Pertamina Geothermal Energy at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pertamina Geothermal Energy that is +17.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pertamina Geothermal Energy grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies +17.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pertamina Geothermal Energy (+17.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.40 %: that much free cash flow Pertamina Geothermal Energy produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pertamina Geothermal Energy it is 930.86 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1,090 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pertamina Geothermal Energy stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PGEO trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,090 IDR, fair value 930.86 IDR, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PGEO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,090 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (930.86 IDR). For Pertamina Geothermal Energy the two are 159.14 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pertamina Geothermal Energy worth?
The market values Pertamina Geothermal Energy at about 45.8T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1,090 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 930.86 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PGEO?
Our models span a range for Pertamina Geothermal Energy: cautious scenario 711.68 IDR, base 930.86 IDR, optimistic 1,185 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1,090 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PGEO?
Pertamina Geothermal Energy trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 930.86 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 10.2, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pertamina Geothermal Energy (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PGEO from its 52-week high?
Pertamina Geothermal Energy trades at 1,090 IDR, about 22% below its 52-week high of 1,389 IDR and 41% above the low of 775.00 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 930.86 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pertamina Geothermal Energy?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pertamina Geothermal Energy stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1,090 IDR, calculated fair value 930.86 IDR (−15%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PGEO calculated?
We run Pertamina Geothermal Energy through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 930.86 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Pertamina Geothermal Energy itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 1,090 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 930.86 IDR, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pertamina Geothermal Energy right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Pertamina Geothermal Energy
How large is the market capitalisation of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The market capitalisation of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 45.8T IDR (≈ $4.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 5.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Earnings per share at Pertamina Geothermal Energy are 63.01 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The net margin of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 31.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The operating margin of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 53.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Revenue at Pertamina Geothermal Energy is growing +14.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Earnings per share at Pertamina Geothermal Energy are growing +32.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) carry?
The net debt of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is $33.9M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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