Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pertamina Geothermal Energy stock IDR 948, price IDR 930, upside +1.9%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
44‑month range 534.04 IDR – 1,741 IDR · fair‑value band 724.73 IDR – 1,207 IDR · the 930.00 IDR price screens below the 947.93 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of the geothermal sector from the upstream and/or downstream sides in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Own Operations and Joint Operating Contracts.
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The Own Operations segment manages geothermal fields, including Sibayak, Kamojang, Lahendong, Ulubelu, Karaha, and Lumut Balai, covering activities such as exploration, development, and production of geothermal steam and electricity. The company also generated electricity.
As of December 31, 2025, the company managed 16 working areas (WK), which include 13 geothermal working areas (WKP), and two geothermal permit (IPB) working areas. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia.
PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Pertamina Power Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) currently trades at 930.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 947.93 IDR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 1,166 IDR per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the 930.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 530.20 IDR, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 724.73 IDR (bear) to 1,207 IDR (bull), the price of 930.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Pertamina Geothermal Energy reported revenue of $427M in FY2025 versus $369M in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $136M in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 39.1T IDR (≈ $2.2B) Mid · P/E ratio 15.3 · P/S ratio 4.87 · EPS (TTM) 60.73 IDR · Net margin 31.8% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 44.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at 2%, PGEO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear724.73 IDRFair Value 947.93 IDRBull1,207 IDR
Price 930.00 IDR · Upside +1.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (51.91 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.1%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 47%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.7% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
Compare Pertamina Geothermal Energy with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 197 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+1.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.5% · Above median
Return on assets4.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)32.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)44.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.36× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.05× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)4.66× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.7× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pertamina Geothermal Energy Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PGEO
Frequently asked questions
Is Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 947.93 IDR versus a price of 930.00 IDR, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PGEO?
Our model-based fair value for Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 947.93 IDR (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 930.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of PGEO?
Pertamina Geothermal Energy has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 947.93 IDR (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 724.73 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,207 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pertamina Geothermal Energy stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 947.93 IDR, about +2% upside versus a price of 930.00 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 724.73 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,207 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Pertamina Geothermal Energy reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $463M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pertamina Geothermal Energy would have to grow free cash flow by +3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PGEO use?
Our models discount Pertamina Geothermal Energy at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pertamina Geothermal Energy that is +3.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pertamina Geothermal Energy grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +3.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pertamina Geothermal Energy (+3.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.33 %: that much free cash flow Pertamina Geothermal Energy produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pertamina Geothermal Energy it is 947.93 IDR per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of 930.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Pertamina Geothermal Energy stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, PGEO trades below its calculated fair value: price 930.00 IDR, fair value 947.93 IDR, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PGEO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (930.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (947.93 IDR). For Pertamina Geothermal Energy the two are 17.93 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pertamina Geothermal Energy worth?
The market values Pertamina Geothermal Energy at about 39.1T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is 930.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 947.93 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PGEO?
Our models span a range for Pertamina Geothermal Energy: cautious scenario 724.73 IDR, base 947.93 IDR, optimistic 1,207 IDR per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price 930.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PGEO?
Pertamina Geothermal Energy trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 947.93 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pertamina Geothermal Energy (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PGEO from its 52-week high?
Pertamina Geothermal Energy trades at 930.00 IDR, about 25% below its 52-week high of 1,237 IDR and 20% above the low of 775.00 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 947.93 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pertamina Geothermal Energy?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Ørsted A/S, VERBUND AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pertamina Geothermal Energy stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price 930.00 IDR, calculated fair value 947.93 IDR (+2%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PGEO calculated?
We run Pertamina Geothermal Energy through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 947.93 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Pertamina Geothermal Energy currently trades 2% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 930.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 947.93 IDR, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pertamina Geothermal Energy right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Pertamina Geothermal Energy
How large is the market capitalisation of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The market capitalisation of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 39.1T IDR (≈ $2.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 4.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Earnings per share at Pertamina Geothermal Energy are 60.73 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The net margin of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 31.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
The operating margin of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is 44.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Revenue at Pertamina Geothermal Energy is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)?
Earnings per share at Pertamina Geothermal Energy are growing +6.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) carry?
The net debt of Pertamina Geothermal Energy is $33.9M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 4, 2026