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Poly Property Group (PHKIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Poly Property Group $0.28, price $0.18, upside +57.8%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Poly Property Group
PHKIF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $0.2818 · Strongly undervalued (+57.8%)
!Quality 52/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +9.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $0.1135 to $0.5541
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1288 – $0.2757 · fair‑value band $0.1135 – $0.5541 · the $0.1786 price screens below the $0.2818 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Poly Property Group Co., Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property investment, development, and management business in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, and internationally. The company operates through Property Development, Property Investment and Management, Hotel Operations, and Other Operations segments.
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Poly Property Group Co., Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property investment, development, and management business in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, and internationally. The company operates through Property Development, Property Investment and Management, Hotel Operations, and Other Operations segments. It involved in the development of residential and commercial properties; investment and management of properties; and investment, management, and operation of hotels, as well as restaurant business and provision of related services. The company also offers management, financial, asset management, and construction services. In addition, it manufactures and sells digital discs and other products; and engages in the manufacture and wholesale of compact discs, video compact discs, and digital video discs. The company was formerly known as Poly (Hong Kong) Investments Limited. Poly Property Group Co., Limited was incorporated in 1973 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Poly Property Group (PHKIF) currently trades at $0.1786, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2818, implying the stock looks roughly 36.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2.28 per share, and 12 of the 14 models we run sit above the $0.1786 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.7500, and 2 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.1135 (bear) to $0.5541 (bull), the price of $0.1786 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Poly Property Group reported revenue of 48.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 37.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was 225M CNY in FY2025, compounding −42.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $919M · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) $0.0100 · Dividend yield 8.0% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 58%, PHKIF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1135
Fair Value $0.2818
Bull $0.5541
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0076 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$0.8400
$0.7500
$0.7100
76
FCF DCF
$1.02
$2.28
$5.24
73
Growth DCF
$0.9500
$2.48
$4.69
73
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.02
$2.28
$5.24
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.8100
$2.26
$4.36
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.18
$3.10
$5.70
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.8100
$2.21
$4.41
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.09
$2.80
$5.70
63
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$0.1100
$0.1500
$0.1900
58
P/B Multiple
$0.1100
$0.1500
$0.1900
55
EV/EBIT
$1.94
$2.88
$3.81
65
EV/EBITDA
$1.39
$2.14
$2.90
66
EV/Revenue
$0.6800
$1.34
$2.01
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.6600
$0.8800
$1.32
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.9500
$2.48
$4.69
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.8100
$2.21
$4.21
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.8400
$0.7500
$0.7100
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
52/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Profitability
14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−6.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−36.2% vs −8.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 577 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 | HK$107.10 | HK$155.14 | +45% |
| China Resources Land Limited 1109 | HK$28.64 | HK$71.60 | +150% |
| CK Asset Holdings 1113 | HK$45.90 | HK$71.49 | +56% |
| Hongkong Land Holdings H78 | $8.57 | $1.52 | −82% |
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹658.40 | ₹167.48 | −75% |
| China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 | HK$12.42 | HK$22.33 | +80% |
| Sino Land Company 0083 | HK$9.94 | HK$7.28 | −27% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,165 | ₹274.14 | −76% |
| Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 | ¥5.77 | ¥5.87 | +2% |
| China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 | ¥7.18 | ¥6.04 | −16% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Poly Property Group (PHKIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2818 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.1786, about +58% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PHKIF?
Our model-based fair value for Poly Property Group is $0.2818 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.1786.
What is the quality score of PHKIF?
Poly Property Group has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2818 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1135, optimistic scenario $0.5541. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Poly Property Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2818, about +58% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.1786 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.1135, optimistic scenario $0.5541. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
Poly Property Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 48.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Poly Property Group pay a dividend?
Poly Property Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Poly Property Group it is $0.2818 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1786. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Poly Property Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PHKIF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1786, fair value $0.2818, a gap of about +58% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PHKIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1786); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2818). For Poly Property Group the two are $0.1032 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Poly Property Group worth?
The market values Poly Property Group at about $919M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1786; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2818 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PHKIF?
Our models span a range for Poly Property Group: cautious scenario $0.1135, base $0.2818, optimistic $0.5541 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.1786). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PHKIF?
Poly Property Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.2818 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Poly Property Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.4%, debt of 1.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PHKIF from its 52-week high?
Poly Property Group trades at $0.1786, about 35% below its 52-week high of $0.2757 and 5% above the low of $0.1706 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2818 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Poly Property Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Poly Property Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1786, calculated fair value $0.2818 (+58%), Quality Score 52/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PHKIF calculated?
We run Poly Property Group through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2818, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Poly Property Group currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.1786. Our model-based fair value is $0.2818, about +58% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Poly Property Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.1135 to $0.5541). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Poly Property Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
The market capitalisation of Poly Property Group is $919M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Poly Property Group is 0.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
Earnings per share at Poly Property Group are $0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
The dividend yield of Poly Property Group is 8.0% (payout 143%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
The net margin of Poly Property Group is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Poly Property Group is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Poly Property Group is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
The operating margin of Poly Property Group is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
Revenue at Poly Property Group is growing +7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Poly Property Group (PHKIF)?
Earnings per share at Poly Property Group are growing −44.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Poly Property Group (PHKIF) generate?
The free cash flow of Poly Property Group is 3.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Poly Property Group (PHKIF) carry?
The net debt of Poly Property Group is 39.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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