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Piaggio & C (PIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Piaggio & C €0.87, price €1.93, upside -54.9%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · IT · ISIN IT0003073266

PC Some data Sep 23, 2026

Piaggio & C

PIA · MI

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €0.8700 · Strongly overvalued (−55%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.3% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·5.03% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 19 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€3.35 €1.43 Fair Value €0.8700 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.43 – €3.35 · fair‑value band €0.8300 – €0.8700 · the €1.93 price screens above the €0.8700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Piaggio & C. SpA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and distribution of two-wheeler and commercial vehicles. The company provides two-wheelers, including motor scooters, motorbikes, and mopeds under the Vespa, Piaggio, Aprilia, Moto Guzzi, Gilera, Derbi, and Scarabeo brands.

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Piaggio & C. SpA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and distribution of two-wheeler and commercial vehicles. The company provides two-wheelers, including motor scooters, motorbikes, and mopeds under the Vespa, Piaggio, Aprilia, Moto Guzzi, Gilera, Derbi, and Scarabeo brands. It also offers light commercial vehicles under the Ape and Porter NP6 brands; and operates Piaggio Fast Forward project. In addition, the company sells engines to third parties; participates in two-wheeler sports competitions; and provides after-sales services, as well as financial services, and spare parts and accessories. It distributes its vehicles primarily through dealers and exports in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, rest of the Asia Pacific, and India. The company was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Pontedera, Italy. Piaggio & C. SpA is a subsidiary of IMMSI S.p.A.

Stock analysis

Piaggio & C (PIA) currently trades at €1.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.8700, implying the stock looks roughly 121.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €2.12 per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the €1.93 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.3500, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €0.8300 (bear) to €0.8700 (bull), the price of €1.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Piaggio & C reported revenue of €1.5B in FY2025 versus €1.7B in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was €34.0M in FY2025, compounding −13.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €679M · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) €0.1000 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −55%, PIA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €0.8300 Fair Value €0.8700 Bull €0.8700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0022 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €0.9100 €0.9700 €1.04 76
EPV €0.1800 €0.3500 €0.5000 70
ROIC Compounder €0.1800 €0.3500 €0.5000 70
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.6600 €0.9000 €1.04 67
EPV €0.1800 €0.3500 €0.5000 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.6200 €0.6700 €0.7400 69
DDM Multi-Stage €0.6200 €0.7600 €0.9200 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €1.59 €2.12 €2.65 63
P/S Multiple €1.23 €1.64 €2.05 58
P/B Multiple €1.23 €1.64 €2.05 55
EV/EBIT €2.76 €4.05 €5.35 65
EV/EBITDA €3.04 €4.43 €5.81 67
EV/Revenue €1.50 €2.62 €3.74 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.5600 €0.7500 €1.13 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €0.9100 €0.9700 €1.04 76
ROIC Compounder €0.1800 €0.3500 €0.5000 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €1.12 €1.60 €2.09 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 25/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6% vs 9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

PIA screens 121% overvalued. Compare with Tesla, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 116 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside −55% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.30× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.96× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.52× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.69× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)19 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)33 · sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)35 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €41.25 €106.88 +159%
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€0.8700 −121%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Piaggio & C Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PIA

Frequently asked questions

Is Piaggio & C (PIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.8700 versus a price of €1.93, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PIA?
Our model-based fair value for Piaggio & C is €0.8700 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.93.
What is the quality score of PIA?
Piaggio & C has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Piaggio & C (PIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.8700 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.8300, optimistic scenario €0.8700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Piaggio & C stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.8700, about −55% upside versus a price of €1.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.8300, optimistic scenario €0.8700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
Piaggio & C reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Piaggio & C pay a dividend?
Piaggio & C currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Piaggio & C it is €0.8700 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €1.93. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Piaggio & C stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PIA trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.93, fair value €0.8700, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.8700). For Piaggio & C the two are €1.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Piaggio & C worth?
The market values Piaggio & C at about €679M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €1.93; our models calculate a fair value of €0.8700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PIA?
Our models span a range for Piaggio & C: cautious scenario €0.8300, base €0.8700, optimistic €0.8700 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €1.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PIA?
Piaggio & C trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €0.8700 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.0, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of PIA?
The PEG ratio of Piaggio & C is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Piaggio & C (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 1.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PIA from its 52-week high?
Piaggio & C trades at €1.93, about 8% below its 52-week high of €2.08 and 34% above the low of €1.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.8700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Piaggio & C?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Piaggio & C stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €1.93, calculated fair value €0.8700 (−55%), Quality Score 51/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PIA calculated?
We run Piaggio & C through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.8700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Piaggio & C itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €1.93. Our model-based fair value is €0.8700, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Piaggio & C right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.8700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (€0.8300 to €0.8700), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Piaggio & C (PIA) come from?
Earnings per share at Piaggio & C grew +11.9 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Piaggio & C

How large is the market capitalisation of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
The market capitalisation of Piaggio & C is €679M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Piaggio & C is 0.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
Earnings per share at Piaggio & C are €0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
The dividend yield of Piaggio & C is 5.0% (payout 97.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
The net margin of Piaggio & C is 2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Piaggio & C is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Piaggio & C is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Piaggio & C (PIA)?
The operating margin of Piaggio & C is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Piaggio & C (PIA)?
Revenue at Piaggio & C is growing +3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Piaggio & C (PIA)?
Earnings per share at Piaggio & C are growing +18.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Piaggio & C (PIA) generate?
The free cash flow of Piaggio & C is −€8.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Piaggio & C (PIA) carry?
The net debt of Piaggio & C is €559M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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