Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ponsse Oyj 1 stock €15.68, price €18.95, that is 17.3% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €18.90 – €43.74 · fair‑value band €8.22 – €25.59 · the €18.95 price screens above the €15.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Ponsse Oyj operates as manufacturer of cut-to-length forest machines in Nordic and Baltic countries, Central and Southern Europe, South America and North America, Asia, Australia, and Africa. The company offers harvesters, forwarders, harvester heads, and simulators.
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It also provides information system products, including Opti 5G information system for harvesters; Opti 4G forwarder systems; and systems for track-based forest machines.
In addition, it provides tailored solutions, such as firefighting equipment; traction assistance winch; active cabin, seat, crane, frame, and speed; long bogie; armrests and earmrests; harvester head rotators; scale crane system; and greasing systems, as well as high precision and digital solutions.
Further, the company offers spare parts services; and used machines. Ponsse Oyj was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Vieremä, Finland.
Stock analysis
Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V) currently trades at €18.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €15.68, 17% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €23.71 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the €18.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.92, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €8.22 (bear) to €25.59 (bull), the price of €18.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ponsse Oyj 1 reported revenue of €750M in FY2025 versus €750M in FY2021, a compound 0.0%/yr. Reported net income was €30.5M in FY2025, compounding −13.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €530M Small · P/E ratio 22.8 · P/S ratio 0.72 · EPS (TTM) €0.8300 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −17%, PON1V screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€8.22Fair Value €15.68Bull€25.59
Price €18.95 · Downside -17.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2401 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.1% vs −3.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 62% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 146 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−17.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.9% · Below median
Return on assets5.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−7.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Is Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €15.68 versus a price of €18.95, about 17% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PON1V?
Our model-based fair value for Ponsse Oyj 1 is €15.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €18.95.
What is the quality score of PON1V?
Ponsse Oyj 1 has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €15.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €8.22, optimistic scenario €25.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ponsse Oyj 1 stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €15.68, about 17% lower versus a price of €18.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €8.22, optimistic scenario €25.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
Ponsse Oyj 1 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €733M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Ponsse Oyj 1 pay a dividend?
Ponsse Oyj 1 currently shows a dividend yield of 2.90% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ponsse Oyj 1 pays a dividend of €0.55 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 9, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1997. The payout ratio is 66.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.04 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ponsse Oyj 1 would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PON1V use?
Our models discount Ponsse Oyj 1 at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ponsse Oyj 1 that is more than 80 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ponsse Oyj 1 grew +3.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of more than 80 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ponsse Oyj 1 (more than 80 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.11 %: that much free cash flow Ponsse Oyj 1 produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ponsse Oyj 1 it is €15.68 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €18.95. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ponsse Oyj 1 stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, PON1V trades above its calculated fair value: price €18.95, fair value €15.68, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PON1V?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€18.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€15.68). For Ponsse Oyj 1 the two are €3.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ponsse Oyj 1 worth?
The market values Ponsse Oyj 1 at about €530M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €18.95; our models calculate a fair value of €15.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PON1V?
Our models span a range for Ponsse Oyj 1: cautious scenario €8.22, base €15.68, optimistic €25.59 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €18.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PON1V?
Ponsse Oyj 1 trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €15.68 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 20.3. Other multiples: PEG 3.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of PON1V?
The PEG ratio of Ponsse Oyj 1 is 3.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ponsse Oyj 1 (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PON1V from its 52-week high?
Ponsse Oyj 1 trades at €18.95, about 29% below its 52-week high of €26.67 and at the low of €18.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €15.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ponsse Oyj 1?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ponsse Oyj 1 stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €18.95, calculated fair value €15.68 (−17%), Quality Score 58/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PON1V calculated?
We run Ponsse Oyj 1 through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €15.68 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Ponsse Oyj 1 itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €18.95. Our model-based fair value is €15.68, about 17% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ponsse Oyj 1 right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€8.22 to €25.59). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V) come from?
Earnings per share at Ponsse Oyj 1 grew −6.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin −7.7 %, tax rate −2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ponsse Oyj 1
How large is the market capitalisation of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
The market capitalisation of Ponsse Oyj 1 is €530M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ponsse Oyj 1 is 0.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
Earnings per share at Ponsse Oyj 1 are €0.8300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
The dividend yield of Ponsse Oyj 1 is 2.9% (payout 66.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
The net margin of Ponsse Oyj 1 is 3.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ponsse Oyj 1 is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ponsse Oyj 1 is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
The operating margin of Ponsse Oyj 1 is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
Revenue at Ponsse Oyj 1 is growing −7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V)?
Earnings per share at Ponsse Oyj 1 are growing −40.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ponsse Oyj 1 (PON1V) carry?
The net debt of Ponsse Oyj 1 is €20.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 34.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026