Palma Serasih PT (PSGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Palma Serasih PT IDR 226, price IDR 193, upside +16.9%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 102.72 IDR – 265.39 IDR · fair‑value band 140.81 IDR – 318.82 IDR · the 193.00 IDR price screens below the 225.58 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Palma Serasih Tbk, through its subsidiaries, engages in the palm oil plantation and processing business in Indonesia. The company also provides construction and trading services. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Palma Serasih PT (PSGO) currently trades at 193.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 225.58 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 14.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 590.34 IDR per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the 193.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 97.03 IDR, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 140.81 IDR (bear) to 318.82 IDR (bull), the price of 193.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Palma Serasih PT reported revenue of 2.6T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was 443B IDR in FY2025, compounding +20.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6T IDR (≈ $203M) · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 1.47 · EPS (TTM) 22.81 IDR · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 17.3% · Return on equity 16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 17%, PSGO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 140.81 IDRFair Value 225.58 IDRBull 318.82 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (16.69 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+33.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 21%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Is Palma Serasih PT (PSGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 225.58 IDR versus a price of 193.00 IDR, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PSGO?
Our model-based fair value for Palma Serasih PT is 225.58 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 193.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of PSGO?
Palma Serasih PT has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 225.58 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 140.81 IDR, optimistic scenario 318.82 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Palma Serasih PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 225.58 IDR, about +17% upside versus a price of 193.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 140.81 IDR, optimistic scenario 318.82 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
Palma Serasih PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Palma Serasih PT pay a dividend?
Palma Serasih PT currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Palma Serasih PT would have to grow free cash flow by +0.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PSGO use?
Our models discount Palma Serasih PT at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Palma Serasih PT that is +0.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Palma Serasih PT (PSGO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Palma Serasih PT grew +22.4 % a year. The price currently implies +0.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Palma Serasih PT (+0.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.06 %: that much free cash flow Palma Serasih PT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Palma Serasih PT it is 225.58 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 193.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Palma Serasih PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PSGO trades below its calculated fair value: price 193.00 IDR, fair value 225.58 IDR, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PSGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (193.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (225.58 IDR). For Palma Serasih PT the two are 32.58 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Palma Serasih PT worth?
The market values Palma Serasih PT at about 3.6T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 193.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 225.58 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PSGO?
Our models span a range for Palma Serasih PT: cautious scenario 140.81 IDR, base 225.58 IDR, optimistic 318.82 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 193.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PSGO?
Palma Serasih PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 225.58 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Palma Serasih PT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.1%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PSGO from its 52-week high?
Palma Serasih PT trades at 193.00 IDR, about 27% below its 52-week high of 265.39 IDR and 8% above the low of 179.19 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 225.58 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Palma Serasih PT?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Palma Serasih PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 193.00 IDR, calculated fair value 225.58 IDR (+17%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PSGO calculated?
We run Palma Serasih PT through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 225.58 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Palma Serasih PT currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 193.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 225.58 IDR, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Palma Serasih PT right now?
A fairly wide model range (140.81 IDR to 318.82 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Palma Serasih PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
The market capitalisation of Palma Serasih PT is 3.6T IDR (≈ $203M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Palma Serasih PT is 1.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
Earnings per share at Palma Serasih PT are 22.81 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
The dividend yield of Palma Serasih PT is 4.0% (payout 34.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
The net margin of Palma Serasih PT is 17.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Palma Serasih PT is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Palma Serasih PT is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
The operating margin of Palma Serasih PT is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
Revenue at Palma Serasih PT is growing −8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Palma Serasih PT (PSGO)?
Earnings per share at Palma Serasih PT are growing −14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Palma Serasih PT (PSGO) hold?
Palma Serasih PT holds more cash than debt, 124B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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