FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of FAP Agri Tbk PT IDR 6,420, price IDR 7,400, upside -13.2%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2,412 IDR – 7,550 IDR · fair‑value band 3,378 IDR – 8,025 IDR · the 7,400 IDR price screens above the 6,420 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT FAP Agri Tbk operates as an oil palm plantation and processing company in Indonesia. It engages in the wholesale of fruit oils, oils, and vegetable fats; agricultural, industrial, and trading activities; and other management consulting activities. The company was founded in 1994 and is based in Jakarta Utara, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA) currently trades at 7,400 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6,420 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 15.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 9,860 IDR per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the 7,400 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 712.30 IDR, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3,378 IDR (bear) to 8,025 IDR (bull), the price of 7,400 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
FAP Agri Tbk PT reported revenue of 7.6T IDR in FY2025 versus 3.4T IDR in FY2021, a compound +22.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1T IDR in FY2025, compounding +29.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 26.6T IDR (≈ $2.7B) · P/E ratio 20.4 · P/S ratio 2.87 · EPS (TTM) 362.82 IDR · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 14.1% · Return on equity 36.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −13%, FAPA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 3,378 IDRFair Value 6,420 IDRBull 8,025 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (167.07 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+23.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 23%
2025 sits 102% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 290 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−13% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)36% · Top 25%
Return on assets13% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth30% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.78× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Is FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6,420 IDR versus a price of 7,400 IDR, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FAPA?
Our model-based fair value for FAP Agri Tbk PT is 6,420 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 7,400 IDR.
What is the quality score of FAPA?
FAP Agri Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6,420 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3,378 IDR, optimistic scenario 8,025 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FAP Agri Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6,420 IDR, about −13% upside versus a price of 7,400 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3,378 IDR, optimistic scenario 8,025 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
FAP Agri Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.9T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does FAP Agri Tbk PT pay a dividend?
FAP Agri Tbk PT currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FAP Agri Tbk PT would have to grow free cash flow by +37.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FAPA use?
Our models discount FAP Agri Tbk PT at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FAP Agri Tbk PT that is +37.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FAP Agri Tbk PT grew +23.7 % a year. The price currently implies +37.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FAP Agri Tbk PT (+37.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.62 %: that much free cash flow FAP Agri Tbk PT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FAP Agri Tbk PT it is 6,420 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 7,400 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FAP Agri Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FAPA trades above its calculated fair value: price 7,400 IDR, fair value 6,420 IDR, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FAPA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (7,400 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6,420 IDR). For FAP Agri Tbk PT the two are 980.10 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FAP Agri Tbk PT worth?
The market values FAP Agri Tbk PT at about 26.6T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 7,400 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 6,420 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FAPA?
Our models span a range for FAP Agri Tbk PT: cautious scenario 3,378 IDR, base 6,420 IDR, optimistic 8,025 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 7,400 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FAPA?
FAP Agri Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 6,420 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.2, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
Balance-sheet figures for FAP Agri Tbk PT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 36.4%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FAPA from its 52-week high?
FAP Agri Tbk PT trades at 7,400 IDR, about 2% below its 52-week high of 7,550 IDR and 28% above the low of 5,794 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6,420 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FAP Agri Tbk PT?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FAP Agri Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 7,400 IDR, calculated fair value 6,420 IDR (−13%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FAPA calculated?
We run FAP Agri Tbk PT through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 6,420 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. FAP Agri Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 7,400 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 6,420 IDR, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FAP Agri Tbk PT right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (3,378 IDR to 8,025 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of FAP Agri Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
The market capitalisation of FAP Agri Tbk PT is 26.6T IDR (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FAP Agri Tbk PT is 2.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
Earnings per share at FAP Agri Tbk PT are 362.82 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
The dividend yield of FAP Agri Tbk PT is 0.9% (payout 19.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
The net margin of FAP Agri Tbk PT is 14.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FAP Agri Tbk PT is 36.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FAP Agri Tbk PT is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
The operating margin of FAP Agri Tbk PT is 31.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
Revenue at FAP Agri Tbk PT is growing +29.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA)?
Earnings per share at FAP Agri Tbk PT are growing +109% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does FAP Agri Tbk PT (FAPA) carry?
The net debt of FAP Agri Tbk PT is 3.6T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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