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Orlen S.A (PSKOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Orlen S.A $23.55, price $39.10, upside -39.8%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Orlen S.A
PSKOF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $23.55 · Strongly overvalued (−39.8%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +25.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 39/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.35 – $39.10 · the $39.10 price screens above the $23.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business.
Show more
Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business. It engages in the processing and wholesale of refinery products, such as crude oil; production and sale of fuel, oil, chemicals, and petrochemicals, as well as provision of supporting services; production, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat from conventional and renewable energy sources comprising solar photovoltaics, as well as natural gas; trading of electricity; exploration and extraction of mineral resources; exploration, production, and import of natural gas; and trading and storage of gas and liquid gas. The company is also involved in the exploration, recognition, and extraction of hydrocarbons; fuel station activities; and provision of transportation, maintenance and overhaul, laboratory, security, design, administrative, courier, insurance, and financial services, as well as press distribution, and media activities, such as newspapers and websites. It offers petrol, diesel, LPG, and biofuels; aviation and marine fuels; heating oils; aromatics, including phenol, benzene, paraxylene, purified terephthalic acid, benzene-toulene fraction, and naphthalene concentrate; olefins; polyolefins comprising polyethylene; plastics, including polyvinyl chloride polanvil, compounds creovil, and PVC neralit; glycols; nitrogen fertilizers; and other products, such as acetone, ethylene oxide, masterbatch, advanced technical carbon black Chezacarb, caprolactam, soda lye, and sodium hypochlorite. In addition, the company provides base, car and motorbike, truck, marine, industrial, and agricultural oils, as well as paraffin and solvents; table, pickling, iodized table, feed, scrap, and industrial salt, as well as industrial salt brine and dishwasher salt granules; and bitumen. The company was formerly known as Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna and changed its name to Orlen S.A. in July 2023. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Plock, Poland.
Stock analysis
Orlen S.A (PSKOF) currently trades at $39.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.55, 39.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $77.31 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the $39.10 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.61, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orlen S.A reported revenue of 267B PLN in FY2025 versus 131B PLN in FY2021, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was 2.5B PLN in FY2025, compounding −30.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $45.4B · P/E ratio 25.7 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) $1.52 · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.2% · Revenue (TTM) $270B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −40%, PSKOF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $23.55
Fair Value $23.55
Bull $23.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.15 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$47.66
$77.39
$124.70
79
Growth DCF
$48.11
$77.31
$123.63
77
Residual Income
$23.64
$22.64
$22.31
76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$47.66
$77.39
$124.70
79
5Y Revenue Exit
$48.19
$79.80
$120.99
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$39.68
$63.38
$91.35
75
5Y P/E Exit
$20.08
$25.57
$30.96
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$46.00
$75.20
$116.21
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$42.07
$63.61
$92.93
68
10Y P/E Exit
$29.42
$36.91
$45.48
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$3.81
$13.67
$18.42
64
Lynch FV
$3.23
$4.61
$5.99
61
PEG = 1.0
$3.23
$4.61
$5.99
57
EPV
$39.22
$45.66
$51.28
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$14.14
$29.40
$46.64
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$14.14
$24.79
$30.85
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$5.88
$7.84
$9.80
63
P/S Multiple
$7.14
$9.52
$11.90
58
P/B Multiple
$7.14
$9.52
$11.90
55
EV/EBIT
$41.58
$55.24
$68.89
66
EV/EBITDA
$39.48
$52.43
$65.39
67
EV/Revenue
$50.25
$71.53
$92.80
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$16.84
$22.56
$33.67
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$48.11
$77.31
$123.63
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$48.19
$79.47
$116.83
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$23.64
$22.64
$22.31
76
ROIC Compounder
$41.05
$53.50
$70.20
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$4.88
$6.97
$9.06
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
60/100
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Profitability
33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
87
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.7% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26.3% vs −13.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−29.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −31.3% a year for the price and −2.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−1.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)−1.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)−1.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)−0.5%
PSKOF screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (47 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 42 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 25.28 SAR | 20.14 SAR | −20% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $162.75 | $90.40 | −44% |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $204.38 | $92.05 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.21 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | €74.51 | €70.97 | −5% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBR | $20.37 | $28.71 | +41% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 398.40 | kr 345.87 | −13% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.28 | ¥3.74 | −29% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | $67.87 | $70.17 | +3% |
| Imperial Oil Limited IMO | $122.34 | $94.61 | −23% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Orlen S.A (PSKOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.55 versus a price of $39.10, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PSKOF?
Our model-based fair value for Orlen S.A is $23.55 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.10.
What is the quality score of PSKOF?
Orlen S.A has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.55 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orlen S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.55, about −40% upside versus a price of $39.10 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
Orlen S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $270B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orlen S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -29.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.4 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PSKOF use?
Our models discount Orlen S.A at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orlen S.A that is -29.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orlen S.A (PSKOF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orlen S.A grew +25.4 % a year. The price currently implies -29.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orlen S.A (PSKOF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orlen S.A (-29.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 36.36 %: that much free cash flow Orlen S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orlen S.A it is $23.55 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $39.10. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orlen S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, PSKOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.10, fair value $23.55, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PSKOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.55). For Orlen S.A the two are $15.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orlen S.A worth?
The market values Orlen S.A at about $45.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $39.10; our models calculate a fair value of $23.55 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of PSKOF?
Orlen S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.7 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orlen S.A (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PSKOF from its 52-week high?
Orlen S.A trades at $39.10, at its 52-week high of $39.10 and 75% above the low of $22.38 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orlen S.A?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orlen S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $39.10, calculated fair value $23.55 (−40%), Quality Score 60/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PSKOF calculated?
We run Orlen S.A through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Orlen S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $39.10. Our model-based fair value is $23.55, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orlen S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($23.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Orlen S.A (PSKOF) come from?
Earnings per share at Orlen S.A grew −3.9 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.2 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate −5.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orlen S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
The market capitalisation of Orlen S.A is $45.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orlen S.A is 0.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
Earnings per share at Orlen S.A are $1.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
The net margin of Orlen S.A is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orlen S.A is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orlen S.A is 10.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
Revenue at Orlen S.A is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orlen S.A (PSKOF)?
Earnings per share at Orlen S.A are growing +94.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orlen S.A (PSKOF) carry?
The net debt of Orlen S.A is $11.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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