Poste Italiane SpA (PST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Poste Italiane SpA stock €14.76, price €24.52, that is 39.8% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €5.78 – €28.27 · fair‑value band €11.54 – €17.80 · the €24.52 price screens above the €14.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Poste Italiane S.p.A. provides postal, logistics, and financial and insurance products and services in Italy. The company operates through four segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution; PostePay Services; Financial Services; and Insurance Services.
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Its Mail, Parcels and Distribution segment engages in the mail, parcel, and logistics activities, as well as provision of welfare services.
The PostePay Services segment provides payment management and e-money services through a network of LIS sales points, as well as mobile and fixed telephone services and electricity and gas sales services.
Its Financial Services segment engages in the placement and distribution of financial and insurance products and services, such as current accounts, postal savings products, mutual funds, financing, insurance policies, and activities.
The Insurance Services segment is involved in the investment, retirement, and protection businesses through the issuance of life and P&C insurance products. The company was founded in 1862 and is based in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
Poste Italiane SpA (PST) currently trades at €24.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.76, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €14.77 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the €24.52 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.88, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €11.54 (bear) to €17.80 (bull), the price of €24.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Poste Italiane SpA reported revenue of €13.6B in FY2025 versus €31.6B in FY2021, a compound −19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €40.2B Large · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 2.79 · EPS (TTM) €1.85 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 16.6% · Return on equity 18.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −40%, PST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€11.54Fair Value €14.76Bull€17.80
Price €24.52 · Downside -39.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1278 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.6% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.6% vs 15.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (33 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business gains a platform to combine postal logistics, financial services and telecom infrastructure via its Telecom Italia stake, yet weak moat evidence, low ROA and limited data leave any durable advantage unproven.
Main risk: Amazon Logistics as both major customer and competitor along with BRT, DHL, GLS and UPS could capture more last-mile B2C volumes or force lower prices and service levels in parcels, hitting Poste Italiane's logistics revenue growth and margins.
Bull case: By leveraging its dense physical network and the Telecom Italia infrastructure Poste Italiane could expand edge computing and AI-enabled logistics services to win new enterprise and public-sector contracts and offset any parcel margin pressure.
Bear case: If Amazon and other couriers continue to insource or undercut on price while integration of Telecom Italia adds debt without rapid synergies Poste Italiane could see logistics growth stall and face tighter financing for its multi-service platform expansion.
Poste Italiane now controls roughly 86 percent of Telecom Italia after its offer closed. This gives it a strong platform to combine postal logistics and financial services with telecom infrastructure, yet the missing 10 percent leaves room for minority shareholders to influence decisions. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the integration deliver faster digital growth or simply stretch management across too many fronts?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 208 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Poste Italiane SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PST
Frequently asked questions
Is Poste Italiane SpA (PST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €14.76 versus a price of €24.52, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PST?
Our model-based fair value for Poste Italiane SpA is €14.76 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €24.52.
What is the quality score of PST?
Poste Italiane SpA has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €14.76 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €11.54, optimistic scenario €17.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Poste Italiane SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €14.76, about 40% lower versus a price of €24.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €11.54, optimistic scenario €17.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
Poste Italiane SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €14.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Poste Italiane SpA pay a dividend?
Poste Italiane SpA currently shows a dividend yield of 6.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Poste Italiane SpA it is €14.76 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of €24.52. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Poste Italiane SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, PST trades above its calculated fair value: price €24.52, fair value €14.76, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€24.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€14.76). For Poste Italiane SpA the two are €9.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Poste Italiane SpA worth?
The market values Poste Italiane SpA at about €40.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is €24.52; our models calculate a fair value of €14.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PST?
Our models span a range for Poste Italiane SpA: cautious scenario €11.54, base €14.76, optimistic €17.80 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price €24.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PST?
Poste Italiane SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €14.76 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.2. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Poste Italiane SpA (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 18.2%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PST from its 52-week high?
Poste Italiane SpA trades at €24.52, about 13% below its 52-week high of €28.27 and 32% above the low of €18.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €14.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Poste Italiane SpA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Poste Italiane SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price €24.52, calculated fair value €14.76 (−40%), Quality Score 49/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PST calculated?
We run Poste Italiane SpA through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €14.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Poste Italiane SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €24.52. Our model-based fair value is €14.76, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Poste Italiane SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€17.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Poste Italiane SpA (PST) come from?
Earnings per share at Poste Italiane SpA grew +18.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.8 %, EBIT margin +21.5 %, tax rate +3.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Poste Italiane SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
The market capitalisation of Poste Italiane SpA is €40.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Poste Italiane SpA is 2.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
Earnings per share at Poste Italiane SpA are €1.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
The dividend yield of Poste Italiane SpA is 6.9% (payout 91.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
The net margin of Poste Italiane SpA is 16.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Poste Italiane SpA is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Poste Italiane SpA is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
The operating margin of Poste Italiane SpA is 24.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
Revenue at Poste Italiane SpA is growing +3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
Earnings per share at Poste Italiane SpA are growing −5.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Poste Italiane SpA (PST) generate?
The free cash flow of Poste Italiane SpA is €2.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Poste Italiane SpA (PST) carry?
The net debt of Poste Italiane SpA is €3.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026