As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of QXO $2.63, price $12.06, upside -78.2%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.75 – $235.61 · fair‑value band $0.6715 – $6.24 · the $12.06 price screens above the $2.63 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
Follow QXO in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether QXO is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
QXO (QXO) currently trades at $12.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.63, 78.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.27 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $12.06 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.63, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.6715 (bear) to $6.24 (bull), the price of $12.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
QXO reported revenue of $6.8B in FY2025 versus $41.7M in FY2021, a compound +257.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$279M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $12.5B · P/S ratio 1.85 · EPS (TTM) $−0.9200 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin −4.1% · Return on equity −6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −73.9% · Operating margin −11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −78%, QXO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.6715Fair Value $2.63Bull $6.24
Price $12.06 · Upside -78.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11,930.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+433.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+178.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +73.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+101.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.5% (2020) → −0.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+41.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.7% a year for the price and +38.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Distribution · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−78.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−6.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−11.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth127.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.29× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.46× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF68.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA33.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.76× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "QXO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/QXO
Frequently asked questions
Is QXO overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.63 versus a price of $12.06, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of QXO?
Our model-based fair value for QXO is $2.63 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.06.
What is the quality score of QXO?
QXO has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for QXO?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.63 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6715, optimistic scenario $6.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the QXO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.63, about −78% upside versus a price of $12.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.6715, optimistic scenario $6.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of QXO?
QXO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
Does QXO pay a dividend?
QXO currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.66% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into QXO?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, QXO would have to grow free cash flow by +29.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +178.0 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of QXO use?
Our models discount QXO at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For QXO that is +29.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has QXO delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at QXO grew +178.0 % a year. The price currently implies +29.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of QXO growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into QXO (+29.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of QXO?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.48 %: that much free cash flow QXO produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of QXO?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For QXO it is $2.63 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of $12.06. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is QXO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, QXO trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.06, fair value $2.63, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of QXO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.63). For QXO the two are $9.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is QXO worth?
The market values QXO at about $12.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is $12.06; our models calculate a fair value of $2.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about QXO?
Our models span a range for QXO: cautious scenario $0.6715, base $2.63, optimistic $6.24 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price $12.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of QXO?
The PEG ratio of QXO is 1.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of QXO?
Balance-sheet figures for QXO (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −6.8%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is QXO from its 52-week high?
QXO trades at $12.06, about 55% below its 52-week high of $27.07 and 7% above the low of $11.27 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to QXO?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Fastenal Company, Ferguson Enterprises Inc, WESCO International, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is QXO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price $12.06, calculated fair value $2.63 (−78%), Quality Score 40/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of QXO calculated?
We run QXO through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. QXO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of QXO?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.06. Our model-based fair value is $2.63, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with QXO right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.6715 to $6.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of QXO
How large is the market capitalisation of QXO?
The market capitalisation of QXO is $12.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of QXO?
The price-to-sales ratio of QXO is 1.85 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of QXO?
Earnings per share at QXO are $−0.9200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of QXO?
The dividend yield of QXO is 0.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of QXO?
The net margin of QXO is −4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of QXO?
The return on equity (ROE) of QXO is −6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of QXO?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of QXO is −73.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of QXO?
The operating margin of QXO is −11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at QXO?
Revenue at QXO is growing +127% versus a year earlier (3y avg +434%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does QXO carry?
The net debt of QXO is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch QXO in the live analysis
One click puts QXO on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Oct 4, 2026