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Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Aica Kogyo Company €18.61, price €23.00, upside -19.1%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · DE · Home Japan · ISIN JP3100800006

In Frankfurt, only 1 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.

AK Broad data Sep 30, 2026

Aica Kogyo Company

R5Y · F

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value €18.61 · Overvalued (−19.1%)
!Quality 52/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y +1.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!3.3% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Weak on valuation: 8 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€23.80 €17.49 Fair Value €18.61 May 2023 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

40‑month range €17.49 – €23.80 · fair‑value band €12.08 – €25.68 · the €23.00 price screens above the €18.61 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Aica Kogyo Company, Limited manufactures and sells chemical products in Japan, China, rest of Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Chemical Products and Building Materials segments.

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Aica Kogyo Company, Limited manufactures and sells chemical products in Japan, China, rest of Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Chemical Products and Building Materials segments. The company offers decorative panels comprising high pressure laminates, decorative boards, and architectural films; fire retardant decorative panels; counters; housing and public products, including doors, sliding doors, storage units, and toilet booths; industrial and architectural adhesives, and industrial and composite board resins; construction resins, including wall and floor coating materials, repair and reinforcing materials, and corrosive preventive materials; and specially and performance materials, such as hot melts, UV-curable and water based resins, and polymer beads. It also provides exterior and interior finishing coating materials, floor coating materials, various adhesives, organic particles, etc; and melamine laminate, decorative plywood, interior doors, interior building materials, countertops, storage doors, non-combustible decorative materials, extruded cement boards, etc. The company offers chemical products for use in non-construction fields, such as automobiles, daily necessities, and electronic materials; and laminates and building materials for use in commercial, office, educational and cultural, transport, health care and welfare, accommodation, warehouse and factory, and housing facilities. Additionally, the company manufactures and sells laminates and allied products. The company was formerly known as Aichi Kagaku Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Aica Kogyo Company, Limited in June 1966. Aica Kogyo Company, Limited was incorporated in 1936 and is headquartered in Kiyosu, Japan.

Stock analysis

Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y) currently trades at €23.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €18.61, 19.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €28.02 per share, and 3 of the 11 models we run sit above the €23.00 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €4.77, and 8 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €12.08 (bear) to €25.68 (bull), the price of €23.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Aica Kogyo Company reported revenue of ¥252B in FY2026 versus ¥215B in FY2022, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥18.5B in FY2026, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €1.5B · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) €1.53 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −19%, R5Y screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €12.08 Fair Value €18.61 Bull €25.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €4.64 €4.77 €4.94 77
Owner Earnings €18.41 €22.56 €28.72 75
Residual Income €14.10 €15.25 €17.13 73
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €18.41 €22.56 €28.72 75
5Y P/E Exit €17.28 €26.62 €36.78 68
10Y P/E Exit €11.77 €18.01 €24.75 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €11.21 €21.08 €26.21 63
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €5.90 €7.60 €9.17 67
DDM Multi-Stage €5.90 €7.71 €9.61 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple €25.96 €34.62 €43.27 63
P/B Multiple €21.02 €28.02 €35.03 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €8.47 €11.35 €16.94 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €4.64 €4.77 €4.94 77
Economic Profit
Residual Income €14.10 €15.25 €17.13 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 12%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.5% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+17.8%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2031 (sales)+3.6%

R5Y screens overvalued: fair value 19% below the price. Compare with 3M Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 359 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Above median
Fair Value upside −19.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10.4% · Above median
Return on assets 6.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 12.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 19.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.37× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.99× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.8× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)8 · sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)97 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)41 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)66 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Aica Kogyo Company · Fair Value
€18.61 −19%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aica Kogyo Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/R5Y

Frequently asked questions

Is Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €18.61 versus a price of €23.00, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of R5Y?
Our model-based fair value for Aica Kogyo Company is €18.61 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €23.00.
What is the quality score of R5Y?
Aica Kogyo Company has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €18.61 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario €12.08, optimistic scenario €25.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aica Kogyo Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €18.61, about −19% upside versus a price of €23.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €12.08, optimistic scenario €25.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
Aica Kogyo Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥263B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Aica Kogyo Company pay a dividend?
Aica Kogyo Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aica Kogyo Company would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of R5Y use?
Our models discount Aica Kogyo Company at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aica Kogyo Company that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Aica Kogyo Company grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aica Kogyo Company (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.13 %: that much free cash flow Aica Kogyo Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aica Kogyo Company it is €18.61 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €23.00. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aica Kogyo Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, R5Y trades above its calculated fair value: price €23.00, fair value €18.61, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of R5Y?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€23.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€18.61). For Aica Kogyo Company the two are €4.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aica Kogyo Company worth?
The market values Aica Kogyo Company at about €1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €23.00; our models calculate a fair value of €18.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about R5Y?
Our models span a range for Aica Kogyo Company: cautious scenario €12.08, base €18.61, optimistic €25.68 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €23.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of R5Y?
Aica Kogyo Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €18.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aica Kogyo Company (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 10.4%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is R5Y from its 52-week high?
Aica Kogyo Company trades at €23.00, about 3% below its 52-week high of €23.80 and 31% above the low of €17.60 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €18.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aica Kogyo Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aica Kogyo Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €23.00, calculated fair value €18.61 (−19%), Quality Score 52/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of R5Y calculated?
We run Aica Kogyo Company through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €18.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Aica Kogyo Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €23.00. Our model-based fair value is €18.61, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aica Kogyo Company right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€12.08 to €25.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Aica Kogyo Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
The market capitalisation of Aica Kogyo Company is €1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aica Kogyo Company is 1.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
Earnings per share at Aica Kogyo Company are €1.53 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
The dividend yield of Aica Kogyo Company is 3.3% (payout 49.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
The net margin of Aica Kogyo Company is 7.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aica Kogyo Company is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aica Kogyo Company is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
The operating margin of Aica Kogyo Company is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
Revenue at Aica Kogyo Company is growing +19.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aica Kogyo Company (R5Y)?
Earnings per share at Aica Kogyo Company are growing +7.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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