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Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Rockhopper Exploration plc $0.43, price $0.81, upside -46.9%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Oct 2, 2026
Thin data
Oct 2, 2026
Rockhopper Exploration plc
RCKHF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.4300 · Strongly overvalued (−46.9%)
!Quality 41/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −42.5 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0650 – $1.31 · fair‑value band $0.3600 – $0.5500 · the $0.8100 price screens above the $0.4300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
Rockhopper Exploration plc, an oil and gas exploration and production company, engages in the exploration, appraisal, and development of oil and gas acreage. It has operations in the Falkland Islands, the Greater Mediterranean, the Ombrina Mare Arbitration, the United Kingdom, and Italy.
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Rockhopper Exploration plc, an oil and gas exploration and production company, engages in the exploration, appraisal, and development of oil and gas acreage. It has operations in the Falkland Islands, the Greater Mediterranean, the Ombrina Mare Arbitration, the United Kingdom, and Italy. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Wiltshire, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF) currently trades at $0.8100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4300, 46.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.4400 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $0.8100 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.2700, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3600 (bear) to $0.5500 (bull), the price of $0.8100 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Rockhopper Exploration plc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $839K in FY2021. Reported net income was −$40.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $799M · EPS (TTM) $−0.0600 · Return on equity −12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Revenue (TTM) $129K · Revenue growth (YoY) −73.8% · Free cash flow $23.8M · Net cash $105M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −47%, RCKHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3600
Fair Value $0.4300
Bull $0.5500
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.3600
$0.4400
$0.5600
82
Growth DCF
$0.3700
$0.4400
$0.5500
80
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2000
$0.2700
$0.4000
54
All 3 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.3600
$0.4400
$0.5600
82
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2000
$0.2700
$0.4000
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.3700
$0.4400
$0.5500
80
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
41/100
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Profitability
0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
52
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
7/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−60.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−42.5%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.8%
’12
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1,322.2% (2016) → −523.5% (2021)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.6% a year for the price.
Compare Rockhopper Exploration plc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 284 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4300 versus a price of $0.8100, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RCKHF?
Our model-based fair value for Rockhopper Exploration plc is $0.4300 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.8100.
What is the quality score of RCKHF?
Rockhopper Exploration plc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4300 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3600, optimistic scenario $0.5500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rockhopper Exploration plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4300, about −47% upside versus a price of $0.8100 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3600, optimistic scenario $0.5500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
Rockhopper Exploration plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $129K (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rockhopper Exploration plc would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -42.5 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RCKHF use?
Our models discount Rockhopper Exploration plc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rockhopper Exploration plc that is +10.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rockhopper Exploration plc grew -42.5 % a year. The price currently implies +10.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rockhopper Exploration plc (+10.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.55 %: that much free cash flow Rockhopper Exploration plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rockhopper Exploration plc it is $0.4300 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $0.8100. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rockhopper Exploration plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, RCKHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.8100, fair value $0.4300, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RCKHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4300). For Rockhopper Exploration plc the two are $0.3800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rockhopper Exploration plc worth?
The market values Rockhopper Exploration plc at about $799M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $0.8100; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RCKHF?
Our models span a range for Rockhopper Exploration plc: cautious scenario $0.3600, base $0.4300, optimistic $0.5500 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $0.8100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rockhopper Exploration plc (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −12.8%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RCKHF from its 52-week high?
Rockhopper Exploration plc trades at $0.8100, about 33% below its 52-week high of $1.21 and at the low of $0.8100 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rockhopper Exploration plc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rockhopper Exploration plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $0.8100, calculated fair value $0.4300 (−47%), Quality Score 41/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RCKHF calculated?
We run Rockhopper Exploration plc through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Rockhopper Exploration plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.8100. Our model-based fair value is $0.4300, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rockhopper Exploration plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.5500). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Rockhopper Exploration plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
The market capitalisation of Rockhopper Exploration plc is $799M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
Earnings per share at Rockhopper Exploration plc are $−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rockhopper Exploration plc is −12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rockhopper Exploration plc is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF)?
Revenue at Rockhopper Exploration plc is growing −73.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Rockhopper Exploration plc (RCKHF) hold?
Rockhopper Exploration plc holds more cash than debt, $105M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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