Radian Group (RDN) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $5.0B
Radian Group
RDN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −1.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 54% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($42.73). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.84 – $39.71 · fair‑value band $42.73 – $71.22 · the $36.91 price screens below the $56.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Radian Group (RDN) currently trades at $36.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.98, implying the stock looks roughly 54.4% undervalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Radian Group generated revenue of $1.4B at a net margin of 41.0%. Revenue grew 58.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $42.73 (bear case) to $71.22 (bull case); at $36.91, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at 54%, RDN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($86.67) versus Dividend Discount ($16.56). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Radian Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mortgage insurance in the United States. It aggregates, manages, and distributes mortgage credit risk for the benefit of mortgage lending institutions and mortgage credit investors through private mortgage insurance on residential first-lien mortgage loans.
Full company description
Radian Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mortgage insurance in the United States. It aggregates, manages, and distributes mortgage credit risk for the benefit of mortgage lending institutions and mortgage credit investors through private mortgage insurance on residential first-lien mortgage loans. The company also offers private mortgage insurance, specialty insurance, and reinsurance lines. It serves mortgage originators, such as mortgage banks, commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, and community banks. The company was formerly known as CMAC Investment Corp. and changed its name to Radian Group Inc. in June 1999. Radian Group Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Radian Group reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $583M in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.
Watch RDN: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- RDN or AXAHY: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
- Radian Group (RDN) Heads Into Earnings As Its Valuation Story Gets Harder To Ignore
- Radian to Webcast Second Quarter Conference Call
- RDN Stock Trading at a Discount to Industry at 1.04X: Time to Buy?
Peer Group
Insurance - Specialty · 32 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF | $49.53 | $29.08 | -41% |
| AXIS Capital Holdings AXS | $114.62 | $177.90 | +55% |
| First American Financial Corporation FAF | $70.06 | $79.33 | +13% |
| Enact Holdings ACT | $46.52 | $62.79 | +35% |
| MGIC Investment Corporation MTG | $29.47 | $45.39 | +54% |
| Essent Group ESNT | $66.71 | $97.33 | +46% |
| Protector Forsikring ASA PROT | kr 485.80 | kr 418.04 | -14% |
| Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO | $82.49 | $147.67 | +79% |
| NMI Holdings NMIH | $41.16 | $66.55 | +62% |
| nib holdings limited, NHF | A$7.27 | A$5.31 | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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