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Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Rafael Holdings, Inc. $0.61, price $2.02, upside -69.7%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Real Estate · US · ISIN US75062E1064

RH Rafael Holdings, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Rafael Holdings, Inc.

RFL · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.6120 · Strongly overvalued (−70%)
!Quality 39/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −28.5 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/7)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$62.71 $1.16 Fair Value $0.6120 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.16 – $62.71 · fair‑value band $0.4080 – $0.7650 · the $2.02 price screens above the $0.6120 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Rafael Holdings, Inc. primarily engages in holding interests in clinical and early-stage pharmaceutical companies, and medical devices in the United States and Israel. It operates in three segments, Healthcare, Infusion Technology, and Real Estate.

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Rafael Holdings, Inc. primarily engages in holding interests in clinical and early-stage pharmaceutical companies, and medical devices in the United States and Israel. It operates in three segments, Healthcare, Infusion Technology, and Real Estate. The company engages in the development and commercialization of therapies that exploit the metabolic differences between normal cells and cancer cells. Its lead drug candidate is Trappsol Cyclo, which is in phase 3 clinical trial being evaluated for the potential treatment of Niemann-Pick Disease Type C1 (NPC1), a rare, fatal and progressive genetic disorder; and CPI-613 (devimistat), a stable analog of normally transient, acylated catalytic intermediates of lipoate, which is in phase II of clinical trial. The company is also involved in developing Promitil, a molecule designed for the targeted delivery of mitomycin-C in a proprietary prodrug form, completed Phase 1A and 1B clinical studies targeting patients with advanced cancers. In addition, it engages in the development of surgical and procedural devices, including orthopedic arthroscopy instrument for Carpal Tunnel syndrome. Rafael Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Newark, New Jersey.

Stock analysis

Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL) currently trades at $2.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6120, implying the stock looks roughly 230.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 89/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.4080 (bear) to $0.7650 (bull), the price of $2.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Rafael Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $917K in FY2025 versus $802K in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$30.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $142M · EPS (TTM) $−0.7100 · Return on equity −37.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −41.8% · Operating margin −3,838% · Revenue (TTM) $980K · Revenue growth (YoY) −50.6% · Free cash flow −$18.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −70%, RFL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.4080 Fair Value $0.6120 Bull $0.7650
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.9200 $1.23 $1.84 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9200 $1.23 $1.84 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 3
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 6/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+44.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −13.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−172.4% (2020) → −2,847.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

RFL screens 230% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −70% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −23% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −51% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.50× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 65

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC 236,000 VND 25,731 VND −89%
CBRE Group CBRE $141.05 $89.43 −37%
Vonovia SE VNA €17.09 €36.67 +115%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €25.33 €23.78 −6%
KE Holdings 2423 HK$42.78 HK$17.18 −60%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $324.06 $530.17 +64%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$24.40 HK$13.50 −45%
CoStar Group CSGP $28.77 $6.17 −79%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$37.44 HK$56.43 +51%
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.62 SGD 0.5000 SGD −81%

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Rafael Holdings, Inc. · Fair Value
$0.6120 −230%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rafael Holdings, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RFL

Frequently asked questions

Is Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6120 versus a price of $2.02, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RFL?
Our model-based fair value for Rafael Holdings, Inc. is $0.6120 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.02.
What is the quality score of RFL?
Rafael Holdings, Inc. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6120 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4080, optimistic scenario $0.7650. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rafael Holdings, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6120, about −70% upside versus a price of $2.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4080, optimistic scenario $0.7650. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
Rafael Holdings, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $980K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rafael Holdings, Inc. it is $0.6120 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $2.02. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rafael Holdings, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RFL trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.02, fair value $0.6120, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RFL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6120). For Rafael Holdings, Inc. the two are $1.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rafael Holdings, Inc. worth?
The market values Rafael Holdings, Inc. at about $142M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $2.02; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6120 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RFL?
Our models span a range for Rafael Holdings, Inc.: cautious scenario $0.4080, base $0.6120, optimistic $0.7650 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $2.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rafael Holdings, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −37.6%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RFL from its 52-week high?
Rafael Holdings, Inc. trades at $2.02, about 47% below its 52-week high of $3.78 and 74% above the low of $1.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6120 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rafael Holdings, Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rafael Holdings, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $2.02, calculated fair value $0.6120 (−70%), Quality Score 39/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RFL calculated?
We run Rafael Holdings, Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6120, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Rafael Holdings, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $2.02. Our model-based fair value is $0.6120, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rafael Holdings, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.7650). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.4080 to $0.7650) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Rafael Holdings, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
The market capitalisation of Rafael Holdings, Inc. is $142M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
Earnings per share at Rafael Holdings, Inc. are $−0.7100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rafael Holdings, Inc. is −37.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rafael Holdings, Inc. is −41.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
The operating margin of Rafael Holdings, Inc. is −3,838% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)?
Revenue at Rafael Holdings, Inc. is growing −50.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL) generate?
The free cash flow of Rafael Holdings, Inc. is −$18.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL) hold?
Rafael Holdings, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $52.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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