Rai Way SpA (RWAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rai Way SpA stock €4.02, price €4.28, upside -6.0%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.51 – €5.92 · fair‑value band €3.00 – €5.21 · the €4.28 price screens above the €4.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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Rai Way S.p.A. operates as a digital infrastructure operator and service provider in Italy. The company offers broadcasting services, such as local broadcasting, and mobility and network services; and connectivity services.
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It also provides content delivery network services, including distribution of live and on-demand video content via protocols; Storage availability for VoD content within catalogue; transcoding service to adapt live and vod content to any device and format; protection of origin from requests for content coming from CDN caches; secure storage of live streams in the CDN's storage; and dashboard to monitor CDN services and traffic.
In addition, the company offers colocation, virtual private cloud, cloud object storage, and certifications; tower hosting for TV, FM and DAB+, MNO operators, FWA, and public authorities; and on-demand integrated solutions. The company was founded in 1924 and is based in Rome, Italy.
Rai Way S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Rai Radiotelevisione italiana SpA.
Stock analysis
Rai Way SpA (RWAY) currently trades at €4.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.02, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €5.63 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the €4.28 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €1.70, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €3.00 (bear) to €5.21 (bull), the price of €4.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Rai Way SpA reported revenue of €283M in FY2025 versus €230M in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was €88.7M in FY2025, compounding +7.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.2B Small · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 4.06 · EPS (TTM) €0.3100 · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin 29.8% · Return on equity 57.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 26.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 92 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at −6%, RWAY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€3.00Fair Value €4.02Bull€5.21
Price €4.28 · Upside -6.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.7% vs 7.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 46%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.0% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−6.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)57.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets19.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)29.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)45.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rai Way SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RWAY.MI
Frequently asked questions
Is Rai Way SpA (RWAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.02 versus a price of €4.28, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of RWAY?
Our model-based fair value for Rai Way SpA is €4.02 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.28.
What is the quality score of RWAY?
Rai Way SpA has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.02 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.00, optimistic scenario €5.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rai Way SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.02, about −6% upside versus a price of €4.28 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €3.00, optimistic scenario €5.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
Rai Way SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €286M (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does Rai Way SpA pay a dividend?
Rai Way SpA currently shows a dividend yield of 7.72% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rai Way SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +7.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RWAY use?
Our models discount Rai Way SpA at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rai Way SpA that is +7.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rai Way SpA (RWAY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rai Way SpA grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +7.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rai Way SpA (RWAY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rai Way SpA (+7.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.10 %: that much free cash flow Rai Way SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rai Way SpA it is €4.02 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of €4.28. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rai Way SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, RWAY trades above its calculated fair value: price €4.28, fair value €4.02, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RWAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.02). For Rai Way SpA the two are €0.2550 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rai Way SpA worth?
The market values Rai Way SpA at about €1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is €4.28; our models calculate a fair value of €4.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RWAY?
Our models span a range for Rai Way SpA: cautious scenario €3.00, base €4.02, optimistic €5.21 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price €4.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RWAY?
Rai Way SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.1, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rai Way SpA (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 57.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RWAY from its 52-week high?
Rai Way SpA trades at €4.28, about 27% below its 52-week high of €5.83 and 2% above the low of €4.19 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rai Way SpA?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rai Way SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price €4.28, calculated fair value €4.02 (−6%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RWAY calculated?
We run Rai Way SpA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Rai Way SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €4.28. Our model-based fair value is €4.02, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rai Way SpA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Rai Way SpA (RWAY) come from?
Earnings per share at Rai Way SpA grew +7.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin +6.0 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Rai Way SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
The market capitalisation of Rai Way SpA is €1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rai Way SpA is 4.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
Earnings per share at Rai Way SpA are €0.3100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
The dividend yield of Rai Way SpA is 7.7% (payout 106%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
The net margin of Rai Way SpA is 29.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rai Way SpA is 57.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rai Way SpA is 26.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
The operating margin of Rai Way SpA is 45.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
Revenue at Rai Way SpA is growing +2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rai Way SpA (RWAY)?
Earnings per share at Rai Way SpA are growing −4.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Rai Way SpA (RWAY) carry?
The net debt of Rai Way SpA is €109M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 25, 2026