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Saniona AB (SANION) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Saniona AB SEK 24.76, price SEK 9.71, upside +155.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · SE · ISIN SE0005794617

SA Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Saniona AB

SANION · ST

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value kr 24.76 · Strongly undervalued (+155.0%)
!Quality 50/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +121.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 51.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/12)
✓Wide moat 87/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 27.50 kr 1.33 Fair Value kr 24.76 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 1.33 – kr 27.50 · fair‑value band kr 14.96 – kr 32.39 · the kr 9.71 price screens below the kr 24.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Saniona AB (publ), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, developing, and delivering innovative treatments for neurological and psychiatric disorders in Ireland, the United States, Germany, Denmark, and the United Kingdom. It also develops medicines modulating ion channels.

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Saniona AB (publ), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, developing, and delivering innovative treatments for neurological and psychiatric disorders in Ireland, the United States, Germany, Denmark, and the United Kingdom. It also develops medicines modulating ion channels. The company's product includes Tesofensine, a monoamine reuptake inhibitor that has completed Phase 3 clinical trial to treat people with obesity; and Tesomet, an oral investigational therapy that has completed Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of hypothalamic obesity and Prader-Willi syndrome; ACP-711, a positive allosteric modulator of GABAA a3 containing receptors that has completed Phase 1 clinical trial for the treatment of essential tremor; SAN903, a novel medicine based on inhibition of the calcium-activated potassium ion channel, which has completed preclinical development for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease; SAN2219, a subtype selective positive allosteric modulator of GABAA a2- a3- and a5 that is in preclinical stage for treatment of acute repetitive seizures; SAN2355 to treat resistant focal onset seizures; SAN2668, a therapy for severe pediatric epilepsies, including developmental epileptic encephalopathies; and SAN2465, a negative allosteric modulator to treat major depressive disorder. It has research and collaboration agreements with Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH to research, develop, manufacture, and commercialize therapeutics; license agreement with Productos Medix, S.A. de C.V. develop and commercialize tesofensine and/or Tesomet; research services agreement and a collaboration agreement with Cephagenix ApS to identify and develop novel migraine treatments; and research collaboration with AstronauTx to research, develop, manufacture, and commercialize therapeutics for Alzheimer's disease. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Glostrup, Denmark.

Stock analysis

Saniona AB (SANION) currently trades at kr 9.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 24.76, implying the stock looks roughly 60.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 95.82 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 9.71 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 3.08, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: kr 14.96 (bear) to kr 32.39 (bull), the price of kr 9.71 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Saniona AB reported revenue of 434M SEK in FY2025 versus 10.5M SEK in FY2021, a compound +153.7%/yr. Reported net income was 285M SEK in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 1.8B SEK (≈ $185M) · P/E ratio 5.8 · P/S ratio 3.83 · EPS (TTM) kr 1.66 · Net margin 65.5% · Return on equity 52.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −51.0% · Operating margin −1,185%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 155%, SANION screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 14.96 Fair Value kr 24.76 Bull kr 32.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.23 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF kr 21.78 kr 28.84 kr 49.45 76
Growth DCF kr 20.67 kr 30.79 kr 46.59 75
EPV kr 17.00 kr 18.54 kr 19.78 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 21.78 kr 28.84 kr 49.45 76
Owner Earnings kr 22.12 kr 39.39 kr 69.53 71
5Y Revenue Exit kr 15.02 kr 20.76 kr 32.59 70
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 24.28 kr 39.44 kr 69.14 70
5Y P/E Exit kr 32.44 kr 69.06 kr 119.24 65
10Y Revenue Exit kr 17.29 kr 27.76 kr 32.97 66
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 23.29 kr 44.75 kr 81.65 63
10Y P/E Exit kr 28.38 kr 59.71 kr 111.61 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 14.02 kr 97.80 kr 137.25 61
Lynch FV kr 50.53 kr 72.18 kr 93.84 59
PEG = 1.0 kr 50.53 kr 72.18 kr 93.84 55
EPV kr 17.00 kr 18.54 kr 19.78 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 34.03 kr 45.37 kr 56.71 63
P/S Multiple kr 8.26 kr 11.01 kr 13.77 58
P/B Multiple kr 15.53 kr 20.71 kr 25.88 55
EV/EBIT kr 29.58 kr 38.04 kr 46.50 66
EV/EBITDA kr 25.62 kr 32.75 kr 39.89 67
EV/Revenue kr 10.82 kr 13.65 kr 16.48 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 2.30 kr 3.08 kr 4.60 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 20.67 kr 30.79 kr 46.59 75
Rev-Margin DCF kr 16.01 kr 23.15 kr 38.23 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 12.60 kr 19.03 >kr 76.12 56
ROIC Compounder kr 17.38 kr 19.44 kr 21.32 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 67.07 kr 95.82 kr 124.56 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 83
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 6
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 26
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+205.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+121.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +41.4% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,944.1% (2020) → 63.2% (2025)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.7% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 655 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside +155.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 52.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets 30.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 51.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −52.2% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 2.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.27× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 5.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $522.38 $574.62 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $788.04 $1,275 +62%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$176.95 A$194.65 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saniona AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SANION

Frequently asked questions

Is Saniona AB (SANION) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 24.76 versus a price of kr 9.71, about +155% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SANION?
Our model-based fair value for Saniona AB is kr 24.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 9.71.
What is the quality score of SANION?
Saniona AB has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saniona AB (SANION)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 24.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 14.96, optimistic scenario kr 32.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saniona AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 24.76, about +155% upside versus a price of kr 9.71 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 14.96, optimistic scenario kr 32.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saniona AB (SANION)?
Saniona AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 429M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saniona AB (SANION)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saniona AB would have to grow free cash flow by -17.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +121.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SANION use?
Our models discount Saniona AB at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.21, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saniona AB that is -17.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saniona AB (SANION) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saniona AB grew +121.2 % a year. The price currently implies -17.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saniona AB (SANION) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saniona AB (-17.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saniona AB (SANION)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.60 %: that much free cash flow Saniona AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saniona AB (SANION)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saniona AB it is kr 24.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 9.71. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saniona AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SANION trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 9.71, fair value kr 24.76, a gap of about +155% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SANION?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 9.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 24.76). For Saniona AB the two are kr 15.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saniona AB worth?
The market values Saniona AB at about 1.8B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 9.71; our models calculate a fair value of kr 24.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SANION?
Our models span a range for Saniona AB: cautious scenario kr 14.96, base kr 24.76, optimistic kr 32.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 9.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SANION?
Saniona AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 24.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saniona AB (SANION)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saniona AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 52.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SANION from its 52-week high?
Saniona AB trades at kr 9.71, about 65% below its 52-week high of kr 27.50 and 2% above the low of kr 9.55 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 24.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saniona AB?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saniona AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 9.71, calculated fair value kr 24.76 (+155%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SANION calculated?
We run Saniona AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 24.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Saniona AB currently trades 155 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saniona AB (SANION)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was kr 9.71. Our model-based fair value is kr 24.76, about +155% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saniona AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 14.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 14.96 to kr 32.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Saniona AB

How large is the market capitalisation of Saniona AB (SANION)?
The market capitalisation of Saniona AB is 1.8B SEK (≈ $185M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saniona AB (SANION)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saniona AB is 3.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saniona AB (SANION)?
Earnings per share at Saniona AB are kr 1.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Saniona AB (SANION)?
The net margin of Saniona AB is 65.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saniona AB (SANION)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saniona AB is 52.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saniona AB (SANION)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saniona AB is −51.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saniona AB (SANION)?
The operating margin of Saniona AB is −1,185% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saniona AB (SANION)?
Revenue at Saniona AB is growing −52.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +205%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saniona AB (SANION)?
Earnings per share at Saniona AB are growing +456% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Saniona AB (SANION) hold?
Saniona AB holds more cash than debt, 581M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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