Danakali Limited (SBMSF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $19.5M
Danakali Limited
SBMSF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 31, 2026, revised from $0.0565 to $0.0585 (+3.6%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +7.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0680). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0300 – $0.5424 · fair‑value band $0.0491 – $0.0680 · the $0.0699 price screens above the $0.0585 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
Analysis
Danakali Limited (SBMSF) currently trades at $0.0699, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0585, implying the stock looks roughly 16.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $371. Revenue declined 73.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.5%. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0491 (bear case) to $0.0680 (bull case); at $0.0699, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 372% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at -16%, SBMSF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($0.0447) versus Asset-Based ($0.0033). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Danakali Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the exploration and development company in the Australia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is also involved in investment in exploration. The company was formerly known as South Boulder Mines Ltd. and changed its name to Danakali Limited in June 2015.
Full company description
Danakali Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the exploration and development company in the Australia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is also involved in investment in exploration. The company was formerly known as South Boulder Mines Ltd. and changed its name to Danakali Limited in June 2015. Danakali Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in North Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2017 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years
Danakali Limited reported revenue of $87.7K in FY2023 versus $221K in FY2017, a compound −14.3%/yr. Reported net income was $134M in FY2023.
SBMSF screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $86.07 | $27.81 | -68% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$94.23 | C$81.69 | -13% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥24.93 | ¥21.26 | -15% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $119.19 | $161.00 | +35% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 451.30 | kr 67.25 | -85% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥30.17 | ¥42.12 | +40% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥42.59 | ¥38.01 | -11% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,034 | ₹1,129 | -44% |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹594.75 | ₹387.06 | -35% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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