Danakali Ltd (SBMSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Danakali Ltd $0.06, price $0.07, upside -16.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0300 – $0.5291 · fair‑value band $0.0470 – $0.0692 · the $0.0699 price screens above the $0.0581 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Danakali Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the exploration and development company in the Australia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is also involved in investment in exploration. The company was formerly known as South Boulder Mines Ltd. and changed its name to Danakali Limited in June 2015.
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Danakali Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the exploration and development company in the Australia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is also involved in investment in exploration. The company was formerly known as South Boulder Mines Ltd. and changed its name to Danakali Limited in June 2015. Danakali Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in North Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Danakali Ltd (SBMSF) currently trades at $0.0699, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0581, 16.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $0.0581 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $0.0699 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.0196, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.0470 (bear) to $0.0692 (bull), the price of $0.0699 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Danakali Ltd reported revenue of A$87.7K in FY2023 versus A$221K in FY2017, a compound −14.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$134M in FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $25.7M · Return on equity −6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.4% · Revenue growth (YoY) −73.0% · Free cash flow −$4.6M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 133% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −17%, SBMSF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0470Fair Value $0.0581Bull $0.0692
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.9/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.6%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
’13
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’23
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,553.0% (2018) → −4,792.7% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 178 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−16.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−6.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−73.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Danakali Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SBMSF
Frequently asked questions
Is Danakali Ltd (SBMSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0581 versus the last price from Sep 21, 2026 of $0.0699, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SBMSF?
Our model-based fair value for Danakali Ltd is $0.0581 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 21, 2026): $0.0699.
What is the quality score of SBMSF?
Danakali Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Danakali Ltd (SBMSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0581 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0470, optimistic scenario $0.0692. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Danakali Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0581, about −17% upside versus the last price from Sep 21, 2026 of $0.0699 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0470, optimistic scenario $0.0692. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Danakali Ltd (SBMSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Danakali Ltd it is $0.0581 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $0.0699. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Danakali Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, SBMSF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0699, fair value $0.0581, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SBMSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0699); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0581). For Danakali Ltd the two are $0.0118 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Danakali Ltd worth?
The market values Danakali Ltd at about $25.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $0.0699; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0581 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SBMSF?
Our models span a range for Danakali Ltd: cautious scenario $0.0470, base $0.0581, optimistic $0.0692 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $0.0699). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Danakali Ltd (SBMSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Danakali Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −6.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SBMSF from its 52-week high?
Danakali Ltd trades at $0.0699, about 13% below its 52-week high of $0.0799 and 133% above the low of $0.0300 (as of Sep 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0581 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Danakali Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Danakali Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $0.0699, calculated fair value $0.0581 (−17%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SBMSF calculated?
We run Danakali Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0581, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Danakali Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Danakali Ltd (SBMSF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 21, 2026 and stands at $0.0699. Our model-based fair value is $0.0581, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Danakali Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Danakali Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Danakali Ltd (SBMSF)?
The market capitalisation of Danakali Ltd is $25.7M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Danakali Ltd (SBMSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Danakali Ltd is −6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Danakali Ltd (SBMSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Danakali Ltd is −5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Danakali Ltd (SBMSF)?
Revenue at Danakali Ltd is growing −73.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Danakali Ltd (SBMSF) generate?
The free cash flow of Danakali Ltd is −$4.6M (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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Thin data
Sep 29, 2026