Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Sapporo Breweries Limited €4.18, price €10.20, upside -59.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 3 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
SBSome dataSep 30, 2026
Sapporo Breweries Limited
SBW · F
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value €4.18 · Strongly overvalued (−59.0%)
!Quality 43/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +3.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 62.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.2% dividend yield · Well covered
!Trails peers(1/10)
!Moderate moat47/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.92 – €11.50 · fair‑value band €2.65 – €5.94 · the €10.20 price screens above the €4.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Sapporo Breweries Limited engages in alcoholic beverages, foods and beverages, restaurants, and real estate businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Alcoholic Beverages; and Food and Beverages segments.
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Sapporo Breweries Limited engages in alcoholic beverages, foods and beverages, restaurants, and real estate businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Alcoholic Beverages; and Food and Beverages segments. It manufactures, sale, and markets beer, wine, other alcoholic beverages, and other food products; spices, herbs, and dehydrated vegetables; ice cream and soup. The company is involved in operating restaurants, factories, and vending machines business; instore merchandising; provision of consigned freight forwarding, cargo handling and warehousing, and packaging and distribution processing. It sells its products under the POKKA, GINZA LION and YEBISU BAR brand name. The company was formerly known as Sapporo Holdings Limited and changed its name to Sapporo Breweries Limited in July 2026. The company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Shibuya, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW) currently trades at €10.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.18, 59.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €4.78 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the €10.20 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €0.5600, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €2.65 (bear) to €5.94 (bull), the price of €10.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sapporo Breweries Limited reported revenue of ¥507B in FY2025 versus ¥437B in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥19.5B in FY2025, compounding +12.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €4.0B · P/E ratio 78.5 · P/S ratio 3.02 · EPS (TTM) €0.1300 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −59%, SBW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €2.65Fair Value €4.18Bull €5.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.4% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−59.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Return on assets1.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)62.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)78.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)4· sector 10
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)44· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.18 versus a price of €10.20, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SBW?
Our model-based fair value for Sapporo Breweries Limited is €4.18 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €10.20.
What is the quality score of SBW?
Sapporo Breweries Limited has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.18 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.65, optimistic scenario €5.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sapporo Breweries Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.18, about −59% upside versus a price of €10.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.65, optimistic scenario €5.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
Sapporo Breweries Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥498B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Sapporo Breweries Limited pay a dividend?
Sapporo Breweries Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sapporo Breweries Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +14.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SBW use?
Our models discount Sapporo Breweries Limited at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sapporo Breweries Limited that is +14.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sapporo Breweries Limited grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies +14.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sapporo Breweries Limited (+14.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.43 %: that much free cash flow Sapporo Breweries Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sapporo Breweries Limited it is €4.18 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €10.20. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sapporo Breweries Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, SBW trades above its calculated fair value: price €10.20, fair value €4.18, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SBW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€10.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.18). For Sapporo Breweries Limited the two are €6.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sapporo Breweries Limited worth?
The market values Sapporo Breweries Limited at about €4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €10.20; our models calculate a fair value of €4.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SBW?
Our models span a range for Sapporo Breweries Limited: cautious scenario €2.65, base €4.18, optimistic €5.94 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €10.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SBW?
Sapporo Breweries Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 78.5 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.18 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sapporo Breweries Limited (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 2.4%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SBW from its 52-week high?
Sapporo Breweries Limited trades at €10.20, about 11% below its 52-week high of €11.50 and 36% above the low of €7.48 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sapporo Breweries Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sapporo Breweries Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €10.20, calculated fair value €4.18 (−59%), Quality Score 43/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SBW calculated?
We run Sapporo Breweries Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sapporo Breweries Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €10.20. Our model-based fair value is €4.18, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sapporo Breweries Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€2.65 to €5.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sapporo Breweries Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
The market capitalisation of Sapporo Breweries Limited is €4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sapporo Breweries Limited is 3.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
Earnings per share at Sapporo Breweries Limited are €0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 78.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
The dividend yield of Sapporo Breweries Limited is 2.2% (payout 173%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
The net margin of Sapporo Breweries Limited is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sapporo Breweries Limited is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sapporo Breweries Limited is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
The operating margin of Sapporo Breweries Limited is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
Revenue at Sapporo Breweries Limited is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW)?
Earnings per share at Sapporo Breweries Limited are growing +48.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sapporo Breweries Limited (SBW) carry?
The net debt of Sapporo Breweries Limited is ¥148B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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