SES.TO (SES) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 2, 2026: fair value of SES.TO C$11.85, price C$24.62, upside -51.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$3.35 – C$24.86 · fair‑value band C$4.71 – C$21.57 · the C$24.62 price screens above the C$11.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. engages in the waste management and energy infrastructure businesses primarily in Canada and the United States. The company operates through two segments: Waste Management and Energy Infrastructure.
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SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. engages in the waste management and energy infrastructure businesses primarily in Canada and the United States. The company operates through two segments: Waste Management and Energy Infrastructure. The Waste Management segment manages a network of permitted processing, recovery, and disposal infrastructure, optimizing the handling of hazardous and non-hazardous liquids, solids, emulsions, and industrial by-products, enabling recycling of metals and recovered oil, and offering compliant long-term solutions for residual waste; specialty chemical solutions are used to enhance processing efficiency and reduce waste intensity; metal recycling, drilling waste management, water disposal, and landfill disposal; and integrated network includes waste transfer stations, waste processing facilities, produced water pipelines, metals recycling, industrial landfills, generating highly recurring, infrastructure-driven cash flows supported by significant regulatory and capital barriers to entry. The Energy Infrastructure segment consists of crude oil terminals, storage facilities, and pipeline-connected infrastructure that optimize, store, and move crude oil and natural gas liquids to market, including value-added crude oil and NGL marketing and optimization activities such as buying, selling, blending, and storage. This segment also provides collection, processing, recovery, recycling and disposal of waste streams generated by its energy and industrial customers and the gathering, optimization, terminalling and storage of crude oil and natural gas liquids. The company was formerly known as Secure Energy Services Inc. and changed its name to SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. in January 2025. SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
SES.TO (SES) currently trades at C$24.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$11.85, 51.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$16.60 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$24.62 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$2.43, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$4.71 (bear) to C$21.57 (bull), the price of C$24.62 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SES.TO reported revenue of C$1.5B in FY2025 versus C$3.8B in FY2021, a compound −20.9%/yr. Reported net income was C$123M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$5.4B (≈ $3.8B) · P/E ratio 41.7 · P/S ratio 3.49 · EPS (TTM) C$0.5900 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 8.4% · Return on equity 16.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −52%, SES screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$4.71Fair Value C$11.85Bull C$21.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.1356 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 19%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +41.5% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 161 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−63.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)18.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.09× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)41.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.84× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.51× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF112.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.2× · Pricier than median
PEG3.32× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)95· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)65· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)46· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)33· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SES.TO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SES.TO
Frequently asked questions
Is SES.TO (SES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$11.85 versus the last price from Sep 2, 2026 of C$24.62, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SES?
Our model-based fair value for SES.TO is C$11.85 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 2, 2026): C$24.62.
What is the quality score of SES?
SES.TO has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SES.TO (SES)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$11.85 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$4.71, optimistic scenario C$21.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SES.TO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$11.85, about −52% upside versus the last price from Sep 2, 2026 of C$24.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$4.71, optimistic scenario C$21.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SES.TO (SES)?
SES.TO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does SES.TO pay a dividend?
SES.TO currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into SES.TO (SES)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SES.TO would have to grow free cash flow by +44.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.2 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SES use?
Our models discount SES.TO at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SES.TO that is +44.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SES.TO (SES) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SES.TO grew -4.2 % a year. The price currently implies +44.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SES.TO (SES) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SES.TO (+44.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SES.TO (SES)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.89 %: that much free cash flow SES.TO produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SES.TO (SES)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SES.TO it is C$11.85 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of C$24.62. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SES.TO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, SES trades above its calculated fair value: price C$24.62, fair value C$11.85, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SES?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$24.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$11.85). For SES.TO the two are C$12.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SES.TO worth?
The market values SES.TO at about C$5.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is C$24.62; our models calculate a fair value of C$11.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SES?
Our models span a range for SES.TO: cautious scenario C$4.71, base C$11.85, optimistic C$21.57 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price C$24.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SES?
SES.TO trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.7 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$11.85 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 43.0 (reported for FY2025: 45.3). Other multiples: PEG 3.3, P/B 6.8, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
What is the PEG ratio of SES?
The PEG ratio of SES.TO is 3.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of SES.TO (SES)?
Balance-sheet figures for SES.TO (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 16.3%, debt of 1.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SES from its 52-week high?
SES.TO trades at C$24.62, about 1% below its 52-week high of C$24.86 and 55% above the low of C$15.86 (as of Sep 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$11.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SES.TO?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SES.TO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price C$24.62, calculated fair value C$11.85 (−52%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SES calculated?
We run SES.TO through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$11.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SES.TO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SES.TO (SES)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 2, 2026 and stands at C$24.62. Our model-based fair value is C$11.85, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SES.TO right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$21.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (C$4.71 to C$21.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of SES.TO
How large is the market capitalisation of SES.TO (SES)?
The market capitalisation of SES.TO is C$5.4B (≈ $3.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SES.TO (SES)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SES.TO is 3.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SES.TO (SES)?
Earnings per share at SES.TO are C$0.5900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SES.TO (SES)?
The dividend yield of SES.TO is 1.7% (payout 65.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 69.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SES.TO (SES)?
The net margin of SES.TO is 8.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SES.TO (SES)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SES.TO is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SES.TO (SES)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SES.TO is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SES.TO (SES)?
The operating margin of SES.TO is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SES.TO (SES)?
Revenue at SES.TO is growing +18.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −43.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SES.TO (SES)?
Earnings per share at SES.TO are growing +42.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SES.TO (SES) carry?
The net debt of SES.TO is C$1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 23.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026