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Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Sichuan Expressway Company $0.82, price $0.58, upside +41.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Sichuan Expressway Company
SEXHF · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $0.8200 · Undervalued (+41.4%)
!Quality 47/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 16.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 57/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0626 – $0.7820 · fair‑value band $0.7900 – $0.9400 · the $0.5800 price screens below the $0.8200 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Sichuan Expressway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, construction, operation, and management of highway infrastructure projects in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Highway, New Energy Technology, Transportation Services, Transportation and Logistics, Project Construction and Others segments.
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Sichuan Expressway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, construction, operation, and management of highway infrastructure projects in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Highway, New Energy Technology, Transportation Services, Transportation and Logistics, Project Construction and Others segments. The company is involved in oil sales, charging pile electricity sales, advertising location rental, service area rental, property rental, catering service, supermarket sales, and construction services. It also offers operation and management, expansion and construction of projects; investment and asset management; advertising management; investment consulting, development and operation of new energy infrastructure, such as charging and swapping facilities, battery banks, and hydrogen refueling stations; construction engineering and design, installation and maintenance of power transmission and supply facilities; interior decoration and renovation; equity investment; and sales of fuel, chemical products and LNG, as well as investment and operation of multimodal transport hubs, supply chain management, international freight forwarding, and technical equipment services. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China with an additional office in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF) currently trades at $0.5800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8200, implying the stock looks roughly 29.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $1.46 per share, and 13 of the 15 models we run sit above the $0.5800 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $0.2800, and 2 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.7900 (bear) to $0.9400 (bull), the price of $0.5800 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Sichuan Expressway Company reported revenue of 8.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B · P/E ratio 8.3 · P/S ratio 1.43 · EPS (TTM) $0.0700 · Net margin 17.3% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% · Operating margin 29.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 41%, SEXHF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.7900
Fair Value $0.8200
Bull $0.9400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
n/a
n/a
$0.3200
74
Residual Income
$0.7700
$0.8200
$0.9000
74
Growth DCF
n/a
n/a
$0.2600
73
All 19 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
n/a
n/a
$0.3200
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$0.6600
$1.86
69
5Y P/E Exit
n/a
n/a
$0.6900
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$0.2800
>$1.12
63
10Y P/E Exit
n/a
n/a
$0.5200
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.4800
$1.80
$2.43
62
Lynch FV
$0.4300
$0.6200
$0.8000
59
PEG = 1.0
$0.4300
$0.6200
$0.8000
55
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.8500
$1.69
$2.56
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.8500
$1.46
$1.79
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.11
$1.48
$1.85
63
P/S Multiple
$0.6100
$0.8200
$1.02
58
P/B Multiple
$0.9000
$1.20
$1.50
55
EV/EBIT
n/a
$0.3800
$0.8800
61
EV/EBITDA
$0.1300
$0.7000
$1.27
60
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.4700
$0.6300
$0.9400
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
n/a
n/a
$0.2600
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.7700
$0.8200
$0.9000
74
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.8000
$1.14
$1.48
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
47/100
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Profitability
30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.9% vs 3.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 28%
2025 sits 65% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.2% a year for the price.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transurban Group TCL | A$13.00 | A$4.92 | −62% |
| China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 | ¥9.88 | ¥13.02 | +32% |
| Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 | ¥12.77 | ¥14.47 | +13% |
| Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 | ¥10.02 | ¥7.88 | −21% |
| Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 | HK$5.90 | HK$16.36 | +177% |
| Anhui Expressway Company 600012 | ¥15.54 | ¥17.09 | +10% |
| Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 | ¥12.50 | ¥13.75 | +10% |
| Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 | ¥8.06 | ¥9.51 | +18% |
| IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB | ₹17.49 | ₹19.95 | +14% |
| CUBEINVIT CUBEINVIT | ₹154.79 | ₹44.34 | −71% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8200 versus a price of $0.5800, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SEXHF?
Our model-based fair value for Sichuan Expressway Company is $0.8200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.5800.
What is the quality score of SEXHF?
Sichuan Expressway Company has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7900, optimistic scenario $0.9400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sichuan Expressway Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8200, about +41% upside versus a price of $0.5800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.7900, optimistic scenario $0.9400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
Sichuan Expressway Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sichuan Expressway Company would have to grow free cash flow by +24.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SEXHF use?
Our models discount Sichuan Expressway Company at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sichuan Expressway Company that is +24.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sichuan Expressway Company grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies +24.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sichuan Expressway Company (+24.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.06 %: that much free cash flow Sichuan Expressway Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sichuan Expressway Company it is $0.8200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.5800. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sichuan Expressway Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SEXHF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.5800, fair value $0.8200, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SEXHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8200). For Sichuan Expressway Company the two are $0.2400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sichuan Expressway Company worth?
The market values Sichuan Expressway Company at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.5800; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SEXHF?
Our models span a range for Sichuan Expressway Company: cautious scenario $0.7900, base $0.8200, optimistic $0.9400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.5800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to Sichuan Expressway Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sichuan Expressway Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.5800, calculated fair value $0.8200 (+41%), Quality Score 47/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SEXHF calculated?
We run Sichuan Expressway Company through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sichuan Expressway Company currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.5800. Our model-based fair value is $0.8200, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sichuan Expressway Company right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.7900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF) come from?
Earnings per share at Sichuan Expressway Company grew +1.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.6 %, EBIT margin +2.5 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sichuan Expressway Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
The market capitalisation of Sichuan Expressway Company is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Sichuan Expressway Company is 8.3 (as of Jun 23, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sichuan Expressway Company is 1.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
Earnings per share at Sichuan Expressway Company are $0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
The net margin of Sichuan Expressway Company is 17.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sichuan Expressway Company is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sichuan Expressway Company is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
The operating margin of Sichuan Expressway Company is 29.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
Revenue at Sichuan Expressway Company is growing +21.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF)?
Earnings per share at Sichuan Expressway Company are growing −6.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sichuan Expressway Company (SEXHF) carry?
The net debt of Sichuan Expressway Company is 34.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 38.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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