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SES S.A (SGBAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of SES S.A $12.80, price $4.65, upside +175.3%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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SS
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
SES S.A
SGBAF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $12.80 · Strongly undervalued (+175.3%)
!Quality 42/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.7% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $6.63 to $24.66
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.42 – $11.25 · fair‑value band $6.63 – $24.66 · the $4.65 price screens below the $12.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
SES S.A. provides satellite-based data transmission capacity and ancillary services worldwide. The company offers content connectivity solutions, including network spanning satellite and ground infrastructure to create, deliver, and manage video and data solutions.
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SES S.A. provides satellite-based data transmission capacity and ancillary services worldwide. The company offers content connectivity solutions, including network spanning satellite and ground infrastructure to create, deliver, and manage video and data solutions. It also provides data connectivity services through its fleet of geostationary earth orbit and medium earth orbit satellites, and ground infrastructures to the aviation, media and broadcast, cloud, cruise, energy, government, maritime, and telco and mobile network operator industries. In addition, the company provides linear video aggregation and distribution to direct-to-home, direct-to-cable, and internet protocol TV homes; channel management solutions comprising playout; and capacity, live feeds and redundancy features for sports and events organizations. It serves broadcasters, platform operators, and content owners. The company was formerly known as SES Global SA and changed its name to SES S.A. in December 2006. SES S.A. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Betzdorf, Luxembourg.
Stock analysis
SES S.A (SGBAF) currently trades at $4.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.80, implying the stock looks roughly 63.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $25.94 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the $4.65 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $2.90, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $6.63 (bear) to $24.66 (bull), the price of $4.65 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
SES S.A reported revenue of €2.6B in FY2025 versus €1.8B in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was −€95.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.6B · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4200 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin −3.6% · Return on equity −3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin 11.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 175%, SGBAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.63
Fair Value $12.80
Bull $24.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
n/a
$2.85
$9.31
77
Growth DCF
n/a
$2.90
$8.73
75
5Y EBITDA Exit
$6.63
$19.30
$33.35
71
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
n/a
$2.85
$9.31
77
Owner Earnings
$2.24
$8.71
$17.37
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$6.63
$19.30
$33.35
71
10Y EBITDA Exit
$3.14
$12.84
$24.64
63
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$5.93
$8.91
$11.99
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$5.93
$8.38
$11.05
67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
$15.84
$25.94
$36.04
66
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.28
$5.73
$8.56
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
n/a
$2.90
$8.73
75
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
42/100
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Profitability
10
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
33
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
’14
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’17
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’20
’21
’22
’23
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.5% (2020) → 2.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.0% a year for the price and +4.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+30.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+0.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.2%
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Compare SES S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Broadcasting · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Broadcasting median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Communication Services sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Communication Services
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Broadcasting stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nexstar Media Group NXST | $162.10 | $178.31 | +10% |
| Sun TV Network Limited SUNTV | ₹605.00 | ₹586.58 | −3% |
| Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation 600959 | ¥3.11 | ¥1.72 | −45% |
| MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V MFEA | €2.21 | €5.62 | +154% |
| MBC Group 4072 | 19.03 SAR | 8.97 SAR | −53% |
| Métropole Télévision S.A MMT | €10.76 | €15.98 | +49% |
| Beijing Gehua Catv Network Co 600037 | ¥7.07 | ¥3.62 | −49% |
| PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, EMTK | 384.00 IDR | 782.48 IDR | +104% |
| Sinclair, Inc SBGI | $12.51 | $15.59 | +25% |
| Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co 002238 | ¥7.08 | ¥4.03 | −43% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is SES S.A (SGBAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.80 versus a price of $4.65, about +175% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SGBAF?
Our model-based fair value for SES S.A is $12.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.65.
What is the quality score of SGBAF?
SES S.A has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SES S.A (SGBAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.63, optimistic scenario $24.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SES S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.80, about +175% upside versus a price of $4.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.63, optimistic scenario $24.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
SES S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does SES S.A pay a dividend?
SES S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SES S.A (SGBAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SES S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +16.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGBAF use?
Our models discount SES S.A at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SES S.A that is +16.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SES S.A (SGBAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SES S.A grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +16.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SES S.A (SGBAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SES S.A (+16.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.17 %: that much free cash flow SES S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SES S.A it is $12.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.65. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SES S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SGBAF trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.65, fair value $12.80, a gap of about +175% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGBAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.80). For SES S.A the two are $8.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SES S.A worth?
The market values SES S.A at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.65; our models calculate a fair value of $12.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGBAF?
Our models span a range for SES S.A: cautious scenario $6.63, base $12.80, optimistic $24.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for SES S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.0%, debt of 2.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGBAF from its 52-week high?
SES S.A trades at $4.65, about 59% below its 52-week high of $11.25 and at the low of $4.65 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SES S.A?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Nexstar Media Group, Sun TV Network Limited, Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation, MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SES S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.65, calculated fair value $12.80 (+175%), Quality Score 42/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGBAF calculated?
We run SES S.A through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SES S.A currently trades 64 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.65. Our model-based fair value is $12.80, about +175% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SES S.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($6.63 to $24.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of SES S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
The market capitalisation of SES S.A is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SES S.A is 1.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
Earnings per share at SES S.A are $−0.4200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
The dividend yield of SES S.A is 5.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
The net margin of SES S.A is −3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SES S.A is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SES S.A is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SES S.A (SGBAF)?
The operating margin of SES S.A is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SES S.A (SGBAF)?
Revenue at SES S.A is growing +66.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SES S.A (SGBAF)?
Earnings per share at SES S.A are growing +18.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SES S.A (SGBAF) carry?
The net debt of SES S.A is €5.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 25.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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