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Sensys Gatso Group (SGG) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · SE · Market cap 524M SEK

SG Sensys Gatso Group SGG · ST
Pricekr 41.00
Fair Valuekr 72.16
Upside+76.0%
Quality54/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 2.3% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Narrow moat 33/100
Evidence: Medium Range kr 48.91 – kr 95.41 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Share price −9.8% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 76% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 48.91). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (kr 48.91 to kr 95.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

kr 99.04 kr 34.75 Fair Value kr 72.16 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 34.75 – kr 99.04 · fair‑value band kr 48.91 – kr 95.41 · the kr 41.00 price screens below the kr 72.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Sensys Gatso Group (SGG) currently trades at kr 41.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 72.16, implying the stock looks roughly 76.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Sensys Gatso Group generated revenue of 726M SEK at a net margin of 2.3%. Revenue grew 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.8%. Net debt stands at 240M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 48.91 (bear case) to kr 95.41 (bull case); at kr 41.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 76%, SGG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF kr 96.17 kr 158.26 kr 245.71 80
Rev-Margin DCF kr 56.12 kr 93.08 kr 140.15 74
ROIC Compounder kr 22.62 kr 27.67 kr 31.88 72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 97.45 kr 167.06 kr 270.91 38
5Y Revenue Exit kr 56.12 kr 92.41 kr 138.78 39
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 80.68 kr 142.07 kr 216.75 41
10Y Revenue Exit kr 69.72 kr 107.17 kr 159.32 36
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 85.82 kr 140.06 kr 217.84 37
Earnings-Based
EPV kr 22.62 kr 27.67 kr 31.88 59
Multiples
EV/EBIT kr 55.29 kr 78.54 kr 101.79 53
EV/EBITDA kr 79.41 kr 110.69 kr 141.98 54
EV/Revenue kr 32.56 kr 52.71 kr 72.86 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 25.26 kr 33.85 kr 50.52 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 96.17 kr 158.26 kr 245.71 80
Rev-Margin DCF kr 56.12 kr 93.08 kr 140.15 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder kr 22.62 kr 27.67 kr 31.88 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 140.06) versus Earnings-Based (kr 27.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 726M SEK
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.7%
Net margin 2.3%
Return on equity 2.8%
Free cash flow 125M SEK FY2025
P/E ratio 31.6
More key figures
Operating margin 5.2%
EPS (TTM) kr 1.44
EPS growth (YoY) +36.6%
Net debt 240M SEK FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Sensys Gatso Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides automated traffic enforcement solutions in Sweden and internationally. It operates in two segments, System Sales and Managed Services.

Full company description

Sensys Gatso Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides automated traffic enforcement solutions in Sweden and internationally. It operates in two segments, System Sales and Managed Services. The company offers fixed spot, portable, moving in-vehicle, and smart in-tunnel speed enforcement, as well as section control and dual speed warning and enforcement system; red light enforcement; U.S. solutions; and road safety in school zones solutions, including school crossing dual warning and enforcement system and stopping violation system for school buses. It also provides vehicle access control solutions, such as low emission zone, vehicle restricted urban zone, dedicated vehicle lane compliance, and selective short-cut enforcement; and uninsured vehicles and traffic policing. In addition, the company offers back-office software solutions comprising Flux, a sensor data collection and management platform; Puls, a data collection and analytics software; and Xilium, a violation processing software. Further, it provides TRaffic enforcement as a Service that manages the enforcement process. The company was formerly known as Sensys Traffic AB and changed its name to Sensys Gatso Group AB (publ) in August 2015. Sensys Gatso Group AB (publ) was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Jönköping, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Sensys Gatso Group reported revenue of kr 719M in FY2025 versus kr 507M in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 4.8M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
719M SEK
Latest YoY
+13.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.6%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.0%
Revenue +9.1%/yr
FY21 kr 507M
FY22 kr 495M
FY23 kr 624M
FY24 kr 631M
FY25 kr 719M
Net income
FY21 kr 32.6M
FY22 kr 18.6M
FY23 kr 12.2M
FY24 kr 5.9M
FY25 −kr 4.8M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sensys Gatso Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGG

Peer Group

Scientific & Technical Instruments · 161 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside +76% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.56× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Scientific & Technical Instruments median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 31.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.90× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.72× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 0
FUTURE 24 · sector 34
PAST 11 · sector 25
HEALTH 72 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 24

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

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Hexagon AB HEXAB kr 80.10 kr 52.93 -34%
MKS Inc MKSI $324.69 $77.46 -76%
AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company 302132 ¥52.91 ¥34.47 -35%
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Cognex Corporation CGNX $64.07 $13.75 -79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Sensys Gatso Group (SGG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 72.16 versus a price of kr 41.00, about +76% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SGG?
Our model-based fair value for Sensys Gatso Group is kr 72.16 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is kr 41.00.
What is the quality score of SGG?
Sensys Gatso Group has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Sensys Gatso Group (SGG)?
Sensys Gatso Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 726M SEK (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SGG?
The net profit margin of Sensys Gatso Group is about 2.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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