Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Sensys Gatso Group AB SEK 103, price SEK 43.20, upside +138.8%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 34.75 – kr 99.04 · fair‑value band kr 72.16 – kr 134.16 · the kr 43.20 price screens below the kr 103.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sensys Gatso Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides automated traffic enforcement solutions in Sweden and internationally. It operates in two segments, System Sales and Managed Services.
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Sensys Gatso Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides automated traffic enforcement solutions in Sweden and internationally. It operates in two segments, System Sales and Managed Services. The company offers fixed spot, portable, moving in-vehicle, and smart in-tunnel speed enforcement, as well as section control and dual speed warning and enforcement system; red light enforcement; U.S. solutions; and road safety in school zones solutions, including school crossing dual warning and enforcement system and stopping violation system for school buses. It also provides vehicle access control solutions, such as low emission zone, vehicle restricted urban zone, dedicated vehicle lane compliance, and selective short-cut enforcement; and uninsured vehicles and traffic policing. In addition, the company offers back-office software solutions comprising Flux, a sensor data collection and management platform; Puls, a data collection and analytics software; and Xilium, a violation processing software. Further, it provides TRaffic enforcement as a Service that manages the enforcement process. The company was formerly known as Sensys Traffic AB and changed its name to Sensys Gatso Group AB (publ) in August 2015. Sensys Gatso Group AB (publ) was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Jönköping, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG) currently trades at kr 43.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 103.16, implying the stock looks roughly 58.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 180.02 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the kr 43.20 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 22.62, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 72.16 (bear) to kr 134.16 (bull), the price of kr 43.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sensys Gatso Group AB reported revenue of 719M SEK in FY2025 versus 507M SEK in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was −4.8M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 498M SEK (≈ $50.2M) · P/E ratio 30.0 · P/S ratio 0.72 · EPS (TTM) kr 1.44 · Net margin −0.7% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% · Operating margin 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 139%, SGG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 72.16Fair Value kr 103.16Bull kr 134.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.4% (2020) → 8.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 159 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sensys Gatso Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGG
Frequently asked questions
Is Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 103.16 versus a price of kr 43.20, about +139% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SGG?
Our model-based fair value for Sensys Gatso Group AB is kr 103.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 43.20.
What is the quality score of SGG?
Sensys Gatso Group AB has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 103.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 72.16, optimistic scenario kr 134.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sensys Gatso Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 103.16, about +139% upside versus a price of kr 43.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 72.16, optimistic scenario kr 134.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
Sensys Gatso Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 726M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sensys Gatso Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by -12.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGG use?
Our models discount Sensys Gatso Group AB at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sensys Gatso Group AB that is -12.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sensys Gatso Group AB grew +9.6 % a year. The price currently implies -12.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sensys Gatso Group AB (-12.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.04 %: that much free cash flow Sensys Gatso Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sensys Gatso Group AB it is kr 103.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 43.20. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sensys Gatso Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SGG trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 43.20, fair value kr 103.16, a gap of about +139% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 43.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 103.16). For Sensys Gatso Group AB the two are kr 59.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sensys Gatso Group AB worth?
The market values Sensys Gatso Group AB at about 498M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 43.20; our models calculate a fair value of kr 103.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGG?
Our models span a range for Sensys Gatso Group AB: cautious scenario kr 72.16, base kr 103.16, optimistic kr 134.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 43.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SGG?
Sensys Gatso Group AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 103.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sensys Gatso Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.8%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGG from its 52-week high?
Sensys Gatso Group AB trades at kr 43.20, about 15% below its 52-week high of kr 50.70 and 24% above the low of kr 34.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 103.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sensys Gatso Group AB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Garmin Ltd, Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, Chroma ATE Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sensys Gatso Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 43.20, calculated fair value kr 103.16 (+139%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGG calculated?
We run Sensys Gatso Group AB through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 103.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Sensys Gatso Group AB currently trades 139 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 43.20. Our model-based fair value is kr 103.16, about +139% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sensys Gatso Group AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 72.16). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 72.16 to kr 134.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sensys Gatso Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
The market capitalisation of Sensys Gatso Group AB is 498M SEK (≈ $50.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sensys Gatso Group AB is 0.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
Earnings per share at Sensys Gatso Group AB are kr 1.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
The net margin of Sensys Gatso Group AB is −0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sensys Gatso Group AB is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sensys Gatso Group AB is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
The operating margin of Sensys Gatso Group AB is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
Revenue at Sensys Gatso Group AB is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG)?
Earnings per share at Sensys Gatso Group AB are growing +36.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG) carry?
The net debt of Sensys Gatso Group AB is 240M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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