SGH Ltd (SGH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SGH Ltd stock A$34.87, price A$42.46, that is 17.9% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.24 – A$54.88 · fair‑value band A$16.03 – A$63.11 · the A$42.46 price screens above the A$34.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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SGH Limited engages in the heavy equipment sales and service, equipment hire, construction materials, media, broadcasting, and energy assets businesses. It operates through WesTrac, Coates, Boral, Energy, Media Investments, and Other Investments segments.
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The company operates as a Caterpillar dealer providing heavy equipment sales and support services.
It also provides a range of general and specialist equipment on hire to various markets, including engineering, building construction and maintenance, mining and resources, manufacturing, government, and events.
In addition, the company is involved in the designing, manufacturing, assembly, distribution, and support of mobile lighting towers, as well as pumps and dewatering equipment; and distribution of FG Wilson generators and Perkins engines.
Further, it invests in listed and unlisted media organizations, as well as private equity investments; and holds oil and gas interests; invests in properties; and produces, supplies, and sells construction materials comprising quarry products, cement, concrete, asphalt, and recycled materials.
It operates in Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, and the United States. SGH Limited was formerly known as Seven Group Holdings Limited and changed its name to SGH Limited in November 2024. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
SGH Ltd (SGH) currently trades at A$42.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$34.87, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$35.59 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$42.46 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$9.67, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$16.03 (bear) to A$63.11 (bull), the price of A$42.46 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2018: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2018.
SGH Ltd reported revenue of A$10.6B in FY2026 versus A$9.0B in FY2022, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$658M in FY2026, compounding +4.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$32.5B (≈ $22.4B) Large · P/E ratio 24.9 · P/S ratio 1.08 · EPS (TTM) A$1.23 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −18%, SGH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$16.03Fair Value A$34.87BullA$63.11
Price A$42.46 · Downside -17.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.2101 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2018: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2018.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.8% vs −25.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 18.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.9% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (15 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Robust cash flow and margin gains at key subsidiaries stand out as the main strength, while thin evidence and only moderate financial signals remain the core weakness.
Main risk: The WesTrac Caterpillar dealership agreement, terminable on 90 days' notice, could be altered or ended and thereby disrupt sales, service and a large share of group earnings.
Bull case: SGH could deepen its Caterpillar partnership through joint technology development and expand Boral's lower-carbon offerings to offset regulatory and import pressures.
Bear case: If the dealership agreement faces issues or climate rules tighten sharply, WesTrac earnings could fall and Boral might lose ground to imports, squeezing group margins and cash flow.
SGH generates robust cash flow and has lifted margins at Boral and WesTrac despite a modest revenue decline in FY26. The group has started an on-market repurchase program while guiding flat to low-single-digit EBIT growth for FY27 amid ongoing efficiency efforts and M&A screening. Will the combination of capital returns and the SGH Way operating model deliver more lasting value than the near-term earnings trajectory or new acquisitions?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 305 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−17.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.0% · Above median
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)11.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.68× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SGH Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGH
Frequently asked questions
Is SGH Ltd (SGH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$34.87 versus a price of A$42.46, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SGH?
Our model-based fair value for SGH Ltd is A$34.87 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$42.46.
What is the quality score of SGH?
SGH Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SGH Ltd (SGH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$34.87 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$16.03, optimistic scenario A$63.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SGH Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$34.87, about 18% lower versus a price of A$42.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$16.03, optimistic scenario A$63.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
SGH Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$10.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does SGH Ltd pay a dividend?
SGH Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.51% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into SGH Ltd (SGH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SGH Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +16.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGH use?
Our models discount SGH Ltd at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.23, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SGH Ltd that is +16.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SGH Ltd (SGH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SGH Ltd grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies +16.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SGH Ltd (SGH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SGH Ltd (+16.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.11 %: that much free cash flow SGH Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SGH Ltd it is A$34.87 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of A$42.46. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SGH Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, SGH trades above its calculated fair value: price A$42.46, fair value A$34.87, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$42.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$34.87). For SGH Ltd the two are A$7.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SGH Ltd worth?
The market values SGH Ltd at about A$32.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is A$42.46; our models calculate a fair value of A$34.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGH?
Our models span a range for SGH Ltd: cautious scenario A$16.03, base A$34.87, optimistic A$63.11 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price A$42.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SGH?
SGH Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$34.87 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings: 29.7. Other multiples: PEG 5.3, P/B 4.3, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 17.3.
What is the PEG ratio of SGH?
The PEG ratio of SGH Ltd is 5.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
Balance-sheet figures for SGH Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGH from its 52-week high?
SGH Ltd trades at A$42.46, about 16% below its 52-week high of A$50.56 and 18% above the low of A$36.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$34.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SGH Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, CITIC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SGH Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price A$42.46, calculated fair value A$34.87 (−18%), Quality Score 53/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGH calculated?
We run SGH Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$34.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. SGH Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$42.46. Our model-based fair value is A$34.87, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SGH Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$16.03 to A$63.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of SGH Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
The market capitalisation of SGH Ltd is A$32.5B (≈ $22.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SGH Ltd is 1.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
Earnings per share at SGH Ltd are A$1.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
The dividend yield of SGH Ltd is 1.5% (payout 52.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
The net margin of SGH Ltd is 4.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SGH Ltd is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SGH Ltd is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SGH Ltd (SGH)?
The operating margin of SGH Ltd is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SGH Ltd (SGH)?
Revenue at SGH Ltd is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SGH Ltd (SGH)?
Earnings per share at SGH Ltd are growing −4.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SGH Ltd (SGH) carry?
The net debt of SGH Ltd is A$4.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026