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Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shawbrook Group PLC £6.15, price £3.13, upside +96.5%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · GB

SG Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Shawbrook Group PLC

SHAW · LSE

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value £6.15 · Strongly undervalued (+96%)
!Quality 41/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +27.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 32.3% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
✓Wide moat 68/100
!Insider activity 35/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

£5.04 £2.93 Fair Value £6.15 Oct 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

11‑month range £2.93 – £5.04 · fair‑value band £4.61 – £7.68 · the £3.13 price screens below the £6.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Shawbrook Group PLC, through its subsidiary, Shawbrook Bank Limited, provides lending and savings products and services to private and business customers in the United Kingdom.

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Shawbrook Group PLC, through its subsidiary, Shawbrook Bank Limited, provides lending and savings products and services to private and business customers in the United Kingdom. It offers personal and business savings; personal, wedding, home improvement, car, debt consolidation, and point of sale loans; and asset, structured, leveraged, fund, platform, revolving credit, point of sale, and other finances, as well as corporate lending. The company also provides buy-to-let mortgages, commercial mortgages, development finance, and bridging finance services. Shawbrook Group PLC was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Brentwood, United Kingdom. Shawbrook Group PLC was formerly a subsidiary of Marlin Bidco Limited.

Stock analysis

Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW) currently trades at £3.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £6.15, implying the stock looks roughly 49.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £6.40 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the £3.13 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £2.38, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: £4.61 (bear) to £7.68 (bull), the price of £3.13 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Shawbrook Group PLC reported revenue of £688M in FY2025 versus £466M in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was £196M in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 1.8B GBX · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 2.54 · EPS (TTM) £0.3500 · Net margin 28.4% · Return on equity 11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin 36.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 96%, SHAW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear £4.61 Fair Value £6.15 Bull £7.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.2560 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income £3.12 £3.49 £5.64 69
P/E Multiple £4.80 £6.40 £7.99 63
P/B Multiple £4.80 £6.40 £7.99 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple £4.80 £6.40 £7.99 63
P/B Multiple £4.80 £6.40 £7.99 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £1.77 £2.38 £3.55 51
Economic Profit
Residual Income £3.12 £3.49 £5.64 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 37
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.4%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.7% (2020) → 39.5% (2025)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +97% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 32% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 36% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.29× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.92× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 2.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 1.6× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)46 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.69 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.25 HK$62.30 +22%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹737.25 ₹406.85 −45%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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£6.15 +49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shawbrook Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHAW

Frequently asked questions

Is Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £6.15 versus a price of £3.13, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SHAW?
Our model-based fair value for Shawbrook Group PLC is £6.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.13.
What is the quality score of SHAW?
Shawbrook Group PLC has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £6.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario £4.61, optimistic scenario £7.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shawbrook Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £6.15, about +96% upside versus a price of £3.13 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £4.61, optimistic scenario £7.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
Shawbrook Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £605M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shawbrook Group PLC it is £6.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £3.13. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shawbrook Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SHAW trades below its calculated fair value: price £3.13, fair value £6.15, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHAW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£6.15). For Shawbrook Group PLC the two are £3.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shawbrook Group PLC worth?
The market values Shawbrook Group PLC at about 1.8B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £3.13; our models calculate a fair value of £6.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHAW?
Our models span a range for Shawbrook Group PLC: cautious scenario £4.61, base £6.15, optimistic £7.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £3.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHAW?
Shawbrook Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £6.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 1.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shawbrook Group PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Shawbrook Group PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shawbrook Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £3.13, calculated fair value £6.15 (+96%), Quality Score 41/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHAW calculated?
We run Shawbrook Group PLC through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £6.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shawbrook Group PLC currently trades 96 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was £3.13. Our model-based fair value is £6.15, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shawbrook Group PLC right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£4.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Shawbrook Group PLC

How large is the market capitalisation of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
The market capitalisation of Shawbrook Group PLC is 1.8B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shawbrook Group PLC is 2.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
Earnings per share at Shawbrook Group PLC are £0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
The net margin of Shawbrook Group PLC is 28.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shawbrook Group PLC is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shawbrook Group PLC is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
The operating margin of Shawbrook Group PLC is 36.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
Revenue at Shawbrook Group PLC is growing −0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW)?
Earnings per share at Shawbrook Group PLC are growing −73.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW) generate?
The free cash flow of Shawbrook Group PLC is 1.0B GBX (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shawbrook Group PLC (SHAW) carry?
The net debt of Shawbrook Group PLC is 238M GBX (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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