Shimizu Corp (SHMUY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shimizu Corp stock $44.00, price $52.00, upside -15.4%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.86 – $89.87 · fair‑value band $36.38 – $58.67 · the $52.00 price screens above the $44.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Shimizu Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction, development, engineering, and life cycle valuation businesses in Japan and internationally.
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The company offers plans, designs, builds, repairs, manages, operates, and maintains offices, plants, schools, hospitals, and other buildings; designs, builds, and renovates tunnels, bridges, dams, urban infrastructure, and energy and other public facilities; provides construction for manufacturing facilities, high-rise buildings, hospitals, bridges, subways, and other projects; and develops and rents real estate properties.
It also provides engineering, procurement, and construction services in solar and wind power projects, environmental clean-up engineering, turn-key order fulfillment of plants, and ICT systems and engineering projects.
In addition, the company offers facility operation and management services; and generates power from wooden biomass.
Further, the company engages in the lease and sale of construction equipment; provision of interior finishing and rebar works; insurance agency, security, and travel agency businesses; money lending activities; and rental of various tower cranes, crawler cranes, and other construction machinery and equipment.
Additionally, it involved in road construction and paving work; development, sale, and leasing of computer software; planning and management of sports facilities; landscaping of parks, green spaces, and gardens, etc. Shimizu Corporation was founded in 1804 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Shimizu Corp (SHMUY) currently trades at $52.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.00, 15.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $81.54 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the $52.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $15.30, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $36.38 (bear) to $58.67 (bull), the price of $52.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Shimizu Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥2.2T in FY2026 versus ¥1.5T in FY2022, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥134B in FY2026, compounding +29.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $8.8B Mid · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) $4.93 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −15%, SHMUY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$36.38Fair Value $44.00Bull$58.67
Price $52.00 · Upside -15.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.3% vs 10.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
2026 sits 198% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (26 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Shimizu’s main strength is its M&A drive to reinforce construction capabilities while persistently low margins, negative free cash flow and high debt constitute the central weakness.
Main risk: High debt load together with negative free cash flow risks stretching the balance sheet through convertible bond issuance without margin gains, hitting cash flows and project execution.
Shimizu is advancing a sizable share repurchase program while preparing to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds, with part of the proceeds directed back toward buybacks and part toward M&A that strengthens construction capabilities. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Does this capital recycling mainly offset dilution and support project execution in engineering and construction, or does it risk stretching the balance sheet without lifting underlying margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 783 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−15.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Shimizu Corp (SHMUY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $44.00 versus a price of $52.00, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHMUY?
Our model-based fair value for Shimizu Corp ADR is $44.00 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.00.
What is the quality score of SHMUY?
Shimizu Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $44.00 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $36.38, optimistic scenario $58.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shimizu Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $44.00, about −15% upside versus a price of $52.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $36.38, optimistic scenario $58.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
Shimizu Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.1T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Shimizu Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Shimizu Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 3.45% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shimizu Corp ADR it is $44.00 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $52.00. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shimizu Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, SHMUY trades above its calculated fair value: price $52.00, fair value $44.00, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHMUY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($44.00). For Shimizu Corp ADR the two are $8.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shimizu Corp ADR worth?
The market values Shimizu Corp ADR at about $8.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $52.00; our models calculate a fair value of $44.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHMUY?
Our models span a range for Shimizu Corp ADR: cautious scenario $36.38, base $44.00, optimistic $58.67 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $52.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHMUY?
Shimizu Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $44.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shimizu Corp ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 17.6%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Shimizu Corp ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shimizu Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $52.00, calculated fair value $44.00 (−15%), Quality Score 58/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHMUY calculated?
We run Shimizu Corp ADR through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $44.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Shimizu Corp ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was $52.00. Our model-based fair value is $44.00, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shimizu Corp ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY) come from?
Earnings per share at Shimizu Corp ADR grew +6.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shimizu Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
The market capitalisation of Shimizu Corp ADR is $8.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shimizu Corp ADR is 0.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
Earnings per share at Shimizu Corp ADR are $4.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
The dividend yield of Shimizu Corp ADR is 3.5% (payout 36.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
The net margin of Shimizu Corp ADR is 6.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shimizu Corp ADR is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shimizu Corp ADR is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
The operating margin of Shimizu Corp ADR is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
Revenue at Shimizu Corp ADR is growing +9.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shimizu Corp (SHMUY)?
Earnings per share at Shimizu Corp ADR are growing +398% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shimizu Corp (SHMUY) generate?
The free cash flow of Shimizu Corp ADR is −¥60.5B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shimizu Corp (SHMUY) carry?
The net debt of Shimizu Corp ADR is ¥331B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 22, 2026